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Containers: weigh the odds


Merovingian
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Greetings folks,

 

Containers, as TO call them, are also known as crates or loot boxes in other online games. They provide a random reward once opened and they are acquired either through gameplay or by spending real cash. Let's have a look at this new feature and see what benefit we can get from it.  TO as all the potential to change the odds value and the reward content over the time, what I have displayed below where the % in place during the Black Friday. Consequently, values shown below are mainly related to that event.

 

 

Containers

 

Containers mechanics are becoming an increasing part of games even for those which people have already paid a full price. Some games, such as Overwatch, Container gives out only "cosmetic" items, while other games, such as Star Wars Battlefront II, Container unlocks popular characters including Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader. Seeking to monetise the game more via the Containers system is ok, but it sometime becomes unfair because they are the only way to get to items that you already paid for, they are converted into P2W tools or the non-monetised way to acquire them takes ages (when it is not impossible e.g. Black Friday).

 

 

4EKCBcM.png

 

 

 

 

On TO, a F2P game, it is clear that the management is looking at this popular system to boost incomes. They launched this new paid feature during the Black Friday (23-28th of November), Containers  were available in two ways: from the shop for real cash or via the game by catching the black box (an ugly customised black variant of the Gold Box). However, the drop rate was lower than usual Gold Box, which make the opportunity to catch one scarce for standard players.In the shop the Containers were available for purchase in packs under the [Containers tab]:

 

 

1 Container: 1.49 USD

 

 

10 Containers: 13.99 USD

 

 

25 Containers: 29.99 USD

 

 

 

 

The rewards for that event were chosen randomly from the 15 following possibilities:

Items Value in crystals or Cash
3500 crystals pack 3.5K crystals value
10.000 crystals pack 10K crystals value
125x «Speed Boost» supplies 6.25K crystals value
125x «Mine» supplies 6.25K crystals value
125x «Double Armor» supplies 6.25K crystals value
125x «Double Damage» supplies 6.25K crystals value
125x «Repair Kit» supplies 18.75K crystals value
100x of all supplies (excluding Gold Boxes) 35K crystals value or 17.5K via the garage kit
2 days of Premium 14.85K crystals value minimum or € 2
4 days of Premium 24.75K crystals value minimum or € 3
A set of 5 Gold Boxes 5K crystals value or € 5
One of the paints available in the Garage* 1k-700k crystals value
One of the paints available in the Shop* € 8-30
One of the Legendary paints no longer available for purchase

(Flow, Nightmare, Moonwalker, Eternity or Red Suit)

Invaluable :ph34r:
New animated paint «Spectrum»*

(no longer available for purchase)

€ 60

(Black Friday Bundle)

* from the paints you don’t have on your account

 

The Legendary paints spared paint so far are the one linked to e-sport or parkour competitions (Traceur and MOP’s paint) and those from yearly event. The latter ones are recycled for other TO purposes anyway.

 

 

What are the probabilities to get one of the 15 items when you open one Container?

 

At first look, you would think that you have 1 chance out of 15, which is about 6.7%. However, Maf, who have been around for quite a while and has lengthy experience about Developers mind set, proposed a more sensible approach to what the probabilities could looks like:

 

85% for the following items:

3.5k crystals pack, 10k crystals pack, 125x «Speed Boost» supplies, 125x «Mine» supplies, 125x «Double Armor» supplies,  125x «Double Damage» supplies, 125x «Repair Kit» supplies

 

15% for the following items:

100x of all supplies (excluding Gold Boxes), 2 days of Premium, 4 days of Premium, a set of 5 Gold Boxes, one of the paints available in the Garage

 

3% for one of the paints available in the Shop;

 

1% for one of the Legendary paints no longer available for purchase anywhere else («Flow», «Nightmare», «Moonwalker», «Eternity» or «Red Suit»);

 

<1% for The new animated paint «Spectrum».

 

The later proposal seems more legit, but let’s find out by putting the 2 theories to the test.

 

 

Test of the Containers from the Black Friday

 

The buyer craze of the black Fridays associated with the Unlimited Black Box Rain Glitch generated many youtube’s videos that provides an insight of the content of numerous Containers. I have witnessed 534 Containers opening and scrupulously noted the reward obtained. Here below are the results in percentages from the least obtained item to the most.

 

 

svTA1IK.png

 

 

As you can see the most received reward is 3.5K crystals with 16.1%, followed a group that hit around 9.6-10.5%. This group is comprised of:

 

10k crystals pack

125x «Double Armor» supplies (6.25K crystals value)

125x «Repair Kit» supplies (18.75K crystals value)

125x «Double Damage» supplies (6.25K crystals value)

125x «Speed Boost» supplies (6.25K crystals value)

 

 

 

 

To make simple, I have rounded the probabilities to 10%. The first surprise is that the Repair Kit pack (with three time the crystals value or others supplies) has the same probability as the others supplies. It doesn’t make sense, is it a mistake?

Second surprise, is that the 125x Mine supplies is not on that group. As a matter of fact the probability to win Mines is twice less with 5%. Did the developers thought that Mines are more powerful? Or more coveted? In my opinion I would say yes for both, but the average tankers would disagree as they wrongly underestimate the Power of the Mines. Or is it a mistake and developers have inadvertently switched the Repair Kit probabilities with the Mines? Or did they mean to have all supplies at 10%, but messed up the Mines probabilities. That won’t be the first time they cock-up anyway :D

 

After the 125x supplies comes the x5 gold box with a value of 5K crystals. The lower probability at 7% (is about 1 chance on 15) value than the x125 supplies (DD, DA, SB) but more desired.

 

Equally with 5.8% we have 2 days Premium (minimum 14.85k crystals value) and the 100x of all supplies (17.5K as 100 supplies kit in garage discount). For reference 1 day of Premium equals 2.5k crystals, 10 Double Armors, 10 Double Powers, 10 Speed Boosts, 10 Mines and 3 Repair Kits (plus double your battle rewards and 50% more xp). So yes, 2 days Premium worth slightly less than 100x supplies but if you play with Premium you would be able to break even with double battle rewards.

 

Interestingly we have x125 Mines supplies with 4.9% in a close tie with Garage paint at 4.3%. It would have made more sense to have the Repair Kit here (close to one third of 10%).

 

Then we have the 4 days of Premium (minimum 24.75K crystals value), at 2.8%, it is logically about half of the probability to get 2 days of Premium (5.8%). No surprise here.

 

The paint that come either from the shop or the four Legendary have a very low probability: 1.3 and 0.9% respectively, while the Spectrum paint was 0.2%. Be careful the pool of sample was relatively small and only one Container out of 534 yield the Spectrum paint. In another video, a youtuber opened 284 Containers to find no Spectrum paint at all. I look at other accounts that got many Containers from the Black Box glitch and when players caught more than 400 Containers they had all obtained the Spectrum paint. But the trick is, if you have already the paint you can’t have it twice, the system will remove this option during the draw, therefore we will never know for certain if they could have got it twice within 400.

Nevertheless I gave that you have 1 chance out of 400 to open the right Container that’s 16 packs of 25 Containers at 30 USD: 480 USD! But, if you feel lucky you can still get Spectrum just by opening 10 Containers (for 14 USD).

 

I packed up the different probabilities of each items into the same group as Maf did and I found big similarities but also some few differences.

 

 

Maf    Experiment     Difference

85%       72%              Small

15%       26%              Not Small

3%         1.3%             Close enough

1%         0.9%             Really Small

<1%       0.2%             :mellow: 

 

 

Not bad, he got it wrong about the Premium 2 and 4 days, and the Mines but I can concede that there is something afoot here. To conclude, it is not 6.7% probabilities for each items but pretty close to what Maf as predicted, and like he said (below) the more valuable the items, the lower the occurrence. Since Black Friday, it is possible that now the Repair Kit and the Mines odds has been altered, and so does the % for Paints and Spectrum.

 

Now let;s have another look  at the probabilities by grouping the rewards by type, see below what is the split: 

 

Items type    %

Supplies     50.0%

Crystals      27.7%

Premium    8.6%

Gold Box    6.9%

Paints         6.7%

 

 

gWenvfx.png

 

 

 

 

You have one chance out of 2 to get Supplies, so if you are a non-druggers (one of the last), then the containers are not for you. Then crystals is the second most received reward (more than 1 chance out of 4). Then the others rewards (Premium, Gold Box, and Paints) are all about 1 chance out of 15. So only 6.7% is cosmetics, 6.9% is actually fun (Gold box) and all the rest is standard pay-to-win Tanki tricks  ¯\_()_/¯

 

 

Bundle or not Bundle?

 

A bundle with the Spectrum paint and others goodies was available during the Black Friday. So if during the event, you really wanted the Spectrum paint would it better to buy the bundle for 60 USD or try your luck with containers?

 

 

srGOahE.png

 

 

Keep in mind that with the same amount of money you could buy 50 Containers. With the probabilities obtained above, lets see what 50 Containers can provide on average (I spare you with the calculation):

 

88k crystals

800 of each supply,

550 of Mines

10 days of Premium

15 gold boxes

2 garage paints

1 Shop or 1 Legendary paint

and no Spectrum paint guaranteed

 

 

By comparison the bundle proposed:

 

25k crystals (1 third)

500 of each supply, (2 third)

500 of Mines (about the same)

5 days of Premium (twice less)

5 gold boxes (1 third)

0 garage paint

0 Shop or Legendary paint

1 Spectrum paint guaranteed

 

 

Yes, buy the bundle for the Spectrum paint, even if the bundle provides from twice to three time less than 50 Containers, it guarantees the Spectrum paint! Simply put, the gap of crystals and items of the bundle, covers the cost of the Spectrum paint. On the other hand, if you don’t care about the Spectrum paint buy 50 Containers, this will provide more items and hopefully some precious paint. If I were you I would not buy more than 50 Containers, wait for the next event, because the good thing is that next event involving Containers, the Spectrum paint will be part of the "Legendary Paints" so the probabilities to get it will increase.

 

 

Now, what’s in it for the Free Player?

 

Nothing, forget about the Container. It’s a for buyer only, pass your way.

 

So long Mults…

Edited by Merovingian
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Great topic! I'm surprised how close I got with some of my estimates for the prize chances  :o

 

By the way, despite my "privileged relationship with developers" it's still impossible for me to get information that isn't released to normal players. So while I did ask about the exact chances of container rewards, the only info I got is confirmation that the more valuable items (like paints) won't come up as often as something like crystals and supplies. And that was already pretty obvious.

 

So all the percentages I gave in my post are personal made up estimates with zero actual data to base them off of.

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Drop rate of black goldbox was not lower than normal goldbox.

 

And tell me that doing 2K kills by wasting ~1000 supplies each for 10 containers is worth it or no? (Already have module and not gonna make much use of 5 day premium... but there is small chance of winning dream tank)

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Very well done, however I don't know if the Spectrum one is right... I got the Spectrum paint and if you look up container openings on YT about every YT'ers seems to get it, I don't think it's that rare to get

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Yes, I specified that the value given here is not accurate, and will never be. But all the hints point to a very low probability.  It's more than 1/100 for sure, 1/284 probably and maybe 1/400, it doesn't really matter, how many people are going to spend on more than 100 Containers? or was able to caught 100. Some lucky people will get it from a container, among the 200k Containers caught during the event opened you will find about 400 Spectrum paints, will it be you (robbie56) or XxPAXI2xX. The lucky one is the latter. @So got the paint also from a Container he caught (see pic of the day). got it by buying 10 (or 25) containers and he got it with 5 Containers still to open (see pic of the day).

 

Youtubers and other people will mostly post the best rewards they found. So over time video will skew to show more video of people getting the Spectrum paint. I did the experiment on the very first day, because at the day of the release all of them wanted to show the container opening so they were less skewed. If I redo the same experiment now I'm sure I will find more video that reveal Spectrum paint. A video showed 284 Containers openings, none of them held the spectrum paint. One opened 60, no results either.

 

 

 

You're probably right, ofcourse people will only post te best things they get.

 

Nonetheless very wel done, must've taken you a while!

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I got 3 containers from the crazy weekend, I'll keep one unopened for life. Like Schrodinger, the container might hold the paint or not.

 

That would be an interesting thing to know, does the container already have the item or is the item determined at the moment when you open it?

Hmmm....

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There is also a set of 10 Golds now. Anyways, awesome job and awesome topic.

 

I feel very lucky to have had Spectrum from a Black Friday Container. 0.2% :mellow:

Edited by a7x_Pedro48
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Nothing, forget about the Container. It’s a for buyer only, pass your way.

 

disagree, my friend got nightmare paint from 3 containers... u can still hope.

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I red the Wiki and guessed at the probabilities based on the way Wiki categorizes them

 

=============

5 types each of the Common, Uncommon, and Rare rewards. 2 Epic and 1 Legendary. Guess at the probabilities are

 

 

11.90% for each Common

 5.95%  "    "     Uncomon

 1.95%  "    "     Rare

 1.0%   combined for all 3 Epic and Legendary.

 

 

 

So roughly    6 of 10   opens will give you 3.5k                                                     or (non-RK/GB) Supplies

                     3 of 10   opens                      10k. or   3 days PP (7.5k) or RK/GB or RK+Supplies

                     1 of 10   opens                      30k, or 10 days PP (25k)  or       GB or RK+Supplies or a chance at a Paint

                     1 of 100  opens                                                                                                An Epic or a Legendary Paint.

 

 

OR

 

 

A bit more than 1 of 4 opens will give you some amount of Crystals including the PP daily bonus types.

 

Roughly 1 in 12 opens will give you a Premium Pass of some duration.

 

A bit less than 1 in 2 opens will give you one of the 125 Basic Supply type rewards. These are arguably the least-valuable of the rewards..

 

Roughly 7 out of 10 opens will give you some amount of Supplies from 250 each down to 3 days of PP bonus.

 

Roughly 1 of 7 opens will give you RKs or RKs+Basic Supplies.

 

Roughly 1 of 9 opens will give items unrelated to Cry or combat Supplies: those being Paints and Gold Boxes.

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I red the Wiki and guessed at the probabilities based on the way Wiki categorizes them

 

=============

5 types each of the Common, Uncommon, and Rare rewards. 2 Epic and 1 Legendary. Guess at the probabilities are

 

 

11.90% for each Common

 5.95%  "    "     Uncomon

 1.95%  "    "     Rare

 1.0%   combined for all 3 Epic and Legendary.

 

 

 

So roughly    6 of 10   opens will give you 3.5k                                                     or (non-RK/GB) Supplies

                     3 of 10   opens                      10k. or   3 days PP (7.5k) or RK/GB or RK+Supplies

                     1 of 10   opens                      30k, or 10 days PP (25k)  or       GB or RK+Supplies or a chance at a Paint

                     1 of 100  opens                                                                                                An Epic or a Legendary Paint.

 

 

OR

 

 

A bit more than 1 of 4 opens will give you some amount of Crystals including the PP daily bonus types.

 

Roughly 1 in 12 opens will give you a Premium Pass of some duration.

 

A bit less than 1 in 2 opens will give you one of the 125 Basic Supply type rewards. These are arguably the least-valuable of the rewards..

 

Roughly 7 out of 10 opens will give you some amount of Supplies from 250 each down to 3 days of PP bonus.

 

Roughly 1 of 7 opens will give you RKs or RKs+Basic Supplies.

 

Roughly 1 of 9 opens will give items unrelated to Cry or combat Supplies: those being Paints and Gold Boxes.

 

 

 

thanks!

but a reward of 125 basic supply's is worth 6250 crystals if you would buy them in the garage...

:ph34r: I wouldn't say they are least valuable

Edited by N0iSE
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thanks!

but a reward of 125 basic supply's is worth 6250 crystals if you would buy them in the garage...

:ph34r: I wouldn't say they are least valuable

Unless you bought them on sale. Then they'd cost 3,250.

 

Or on sale as part of the 100x Kit.  The 100x Kit on sale works out to 12.5 Cry per DD, DA, SU or Mine 37.5 for an RK.  That's 1,563 Cry for 125. 

 

There's no "right" answer. If you are out getting 125 means more than if you already own 10,000 of them. :)

Edited by LittleWillie
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