Container Project to Learn Reward Probabilities

[LittleWillie 3,199]

This project is live and collecting new data, Just post yours in a reply. Thank you.

 

Containers are a new system. Players now get Containers in addition to the reward items listed in Wiki. We know what sort of items are inside Containers but not the chances they appear. That is what this project attempts to learn.

 

If enough people post the results of the Containers they open we will eventually have a good estimate on these probabilities. This thread is a place to post the results of Container openings for data collection. Comments and questions should go in the discussion thread.

 

If you want to help out, please post your container results, in full, as you gain and open them. Results can be seen in the reports thread.

 

Please post the results like this

 

125 SU, 3.5k, 3 days PA

125 RK, 125 DD, Lead paint

5 GB, 5 GB, 10k

 

Examples reflact 3 rewards from a 4-week mission chain,

 

=== Results Reporting and Discussion Thread ===

Edited January 26, 2018 by LittleWillie

[lukey0 27,543]

Ok then.

 

lukey0:

 

- 135 Mines

- 100 Of each supply

- Arachnid Paint (Shop)

 

Maloo:

- 5 Golds

- 100 of each supply

- 125 Mines

 

The.lukey0

- 125 DD

- 125 Mines

- 125 Speed Boost

 

Total_Drama07

- 125 DD

- 125 Mines

- 3500 crystals

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

125 mines, 100 of all supplies, 100 repair kits

[Maf 32,302]

10 000 crys, 10 000 crys, 125 speed boost.

[Stratosphere 2,234]

125 DD

125 Mines

125 DA

[austen_pierce 1,948]

100 all supplies

Python paint

5 Gold Boxes

[NamesAreForNoobs 324]

3 days premium

​125 mines

​​Disco paint

​​125 armors

Edited January 15, 2018 by NamesAreForNoobs

[N3tralRE 282]

100 of each supply, 5 gold boxes, 125 Double Armor pieces

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Excellent everyone. This time it is going much better.  I have about 65 Containers recorded now.  I will post the first summary when I have 100.

Edited January 15, 2018 by LittleWillie

[caiosilvac 567]

Main account:

 

10.000 crystals
3.500 crystals
125 DD

 

Alternate account:

 

125 mines
250 of all supplies (no gold boxes)
Disco paint

Edited January 15, 2018 by caiosilvac

[Rocket_Raccoon_XXX 1,507]

Oh I only opened 1 container and got 3.5k cry

[C.O.N.Q.U.E.R.O.R 3,845]

2x 125 DD, 125 N2O

[masakr512 144]

125 DD, 125 DD, 3 500 cry

[Musa 5,352]

I'm not completing missions.

 

Got these from crazy weekend containers.

 

125 SB

125 DD

125 Mines

100 supplies pack

Hohloma paint

Edited January 15, 2018 by Musa

[KILL_BILL_CHAUHAN 2,505]

10k , 5 GB, 124 SU

[DeathMode_0N 13]

I was very Lucky, These were the containers from Weekly chain Reward -

 

125 Mines 

Red Suit Paint  :blink:

125 Sppeds

[LittleWillie 3,199]

I'm not completing missions.

 

Got these from crazy weekend containers.

 

125 SA

125 DD

125 Mines

100 supplies pack

Hohloma paint

THanks for the data. You raise a good point.  All Container data is welcome. They can be obtained any way not just from missions. :)

 

But I have to ask you to please clarify if 125 SA means 124 DA or 125 SU?  Thanks.

 

I was very Lucky, These were the containers from Weekly chain Reward -

 

125 Mines 

Red Suit Paint  :blink:

125 Sppeds

Wow Congrats on the Legendary paint. That's the 1st one in the spreadsheet. :)

[Musa 5,352]

But I have to ask you to please clarify if 125 SA means 124 DA or 125 SU?  Thanks.

It's SB :p

[LittleWillie 3,199]

I was crosseyed.  :wacko:   Thnaks, got it down now.

 

I will post a first summary tomorrow afternoon sometime USA time.

Edited January 15, 2018 by LittleWillie

[omarhero1 401]

125 RK

125 DD

3 days of premium 

[emrakul 7,801]

125sb, 10k, 3500
3500, 125rk, nano paint
125da, 10k, 10k, 3500, 125rk, 3500, 125da

---

These are most recent rewards, I can write a bunch more, from containers I've opened earlier, some from new year black boxes, some even from black friday. Do you want to take all into account, or just since christmas/new year with this http://prntscr.com/i0ntf5 list of items, or it's ONLY containers from mission chains?

[LittleWillie 3,199]

125sb, 10k, 3500

3500, 125rk, nano paint

125da, 10k, 10k, 3500, 125rk, 3500, 125da

---

These are most recent rewards, I can write a bunch more, from containers I've opened earlier, some from new year black boxes, some even from black friday. Do you want to take all into account, or just since christmas/new year with this http://prntscr.com/i0ntf5 list of items, or it's ONLY containers from mission chains?

Containers from any source are great .... but ... I don't think we want to use the Black Friday or other older boxes just in case TO has been fddling with the odds.  So let's just say and Black Box / Container obtained during 2018.  Thanks! You put us over 100.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

First Report.

Containers recorded = 106. 

 

This is still a low sample size so the percentages still contain considerable error. Some rewards were not yet seen. Let's keep going. :)

 

---

 

Common Rewards

3.5k Cry            9.4%

125 DA             7.5%

125 DD           14.2%

125 SU             9.4%

125 Mines        9..4%

 

Uncommon Rewards

10k Cry          11.3%

125 RK            7.5%

100 Each         6.6%

3 Day PA         4.7%

5 GB                8.5%

 

Rare Rewards

25k Cry           0.9%

250 Each        0.9%

10 Day PA      0.0%

10 GB             0.0%

Paint (G)         5.7%

 

Epic Rewards

Paint (S)         2.8%

Paint (P)         0.0%

 

Legendary Rewards

Paint (L)         0.9%

 

 

Three Valuation Systems

 

Low Value: Basic Supplies =12.5, RK = 37.5,  100 Ea Kit = 8.750, 1 Day PA = 2.5k + Supplies value = 3,113, GB = 0, Paints = 0

 

Our 106 Containers averaged 3,910 Cry value in this system. 55% of that value in cash, 45% value in supplies

 

--

 

Mid Value: Basic Supplies =25, RK = 75, 100 Ea Kit = 8.750, 1 Day PA = 3k + Supplies value = 4,225, GB = 500, Paints = 0

 

Our 106 Containers averaged 5,268 Cry value in this system. 48% of that value in cash, 52% value in supplies

 

--

 

High Value: Basics = 50, RK = 150, 100 Ea Kit = 17,500, 1 Day PA = 3k + Supplies value = 5,450, GB = 1,000, Paints = 0

 

Our 106 Containers averaged 8,413 Cry value in this system. 34% of that value in cash, 66% value in supplies

 

 

In all value systems the most profitable category is the UNCOMMON category.

Edited January 15, 2018 by LittleWillie

[emrakul 7,801]

You want at least 1000 containers to get some real numbers. Best with few thousands. Share this topic with as many players as you can and update every day or so. So far the odds are looking quite good, just the number of garage paints seems to be way too high, let's see how it's gonna be. The odds are quite hard to calculate for paints, since once you open them, you can't get them again unlike other items.

 

Containers from any source are great .... but ... I don't think we want to use the Black Friday or other older boxes just in case TO has been fddling with the odds.  So let's just say and Black Box / Container obtained during 2018.  Thanks! You put us over 100.

What about containers opened since 24th december, when they were released?

[LittleWillie 3,199]

You want at least 1000 containers to get some real numbers. Best with few hundreds. Share this topic with as many players as you can and update every day or so. So far the odds are looking quite good, just the number of garage paints seems to be way too high, let's see how it's gonna be. The odds are quite hard to calculate, since once you open it, you can't get it again unlike everything else.

 

 

What about containers opened since 24th december, when they were released?

I had the number 1,000 in mind too in order to reduce estimation error. We'll see how close we get to that. :)

 

I am assuming Paints work like this. There is a fixed percentage for each paint category. If opening a Container results in one of the Paint categories, then a 2nd random result is made to chose exactly which paint in that category. I am not trying to determine the chance to get a specific Paint just the chance to unlock the different Paint categories.

 

I'd rather keep to Containers opened in 2018 just to be sure we do not mix different probability tables. If you have data to Dec 24 you can list it but please tell me which containers date to 2017. I can note those entries in my recordds.

 

NOTHING from before Dec 24 though, please!