Automated Container Probability Project 2020+

[mjmj5558 2,346]

51 minutes ago, BloodPressure said:

I would rather say the second guy was extreme lucky. Even on the test server I bought around 1500 containers and only managed to get 1 exotic container

And you are lucky conpared to me. I didn't get an exotic from 1500 conts in test server.

[DieselPlatinum 5,121]

Just pulled 38500 crystals, blacksmith paint, and toxic shot effect for freeze in just 5 containers on my VikingPrime account. So now it has 83400 crystals. Also keep in mind that it's only on WO4 rank.

[Russty 368]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:30 AM, coconuttree said:

Btw, in the past, the test server has given a million tankions. If it happens again, this can be used to get massive amounts of containers and add to the database.

(However there is a chance that the drop rates will be different in the test server) 

Yeah I think the drop rates are different in the test server because when I went there, I got a container and was given an animated paint. It's extremely rare for me to get anything good from the first container xD

[DieselPlatinum 5,121]

Yesterday I got 100k crystals from containers on this account, so now I'm at 276k.

[kydapoot 570]

We should only report regular containers here, right?

Also, is there another form for ultras, or do their contents change too frequently?

[HappyFace 63]

It seems pooling to x5 or x15 containers is the way to go. You're guaranteed a green or blue respectively (but purely RNG)

[TheCongoSpider 8,942]

6 minutes ago, HappyFace said:

It seems pooling to x5 or x15 containers is the way to go. You're guaranteed a green or blue respectively (but purely RNG)

Have you never gotten a quintuple common opening before? 

[DaringDeer 656]

I have been entering regular and ultra containers in the form as have others. 

[HappyFace 63]

45 minutes ago, TheCongoSpider said:

Have you never gotten a quintuple common opening before? 

I did 2 x5 regular containers in the last 2 weeks and I got at least a green in both. I don't remember which commons I got but I got 3 days Premium and Batteries.

[kydapoot 570]

1 hour ago, DaringDeer said:

I have been entering regular and ultra containers in the form as have others. 

Won't that affect the results, since ultras have different possibilities?

[DaringDeer 656]

8 hours ago, kydapoot said:

Won't that affect the results, since ultras have different possibilities?

In my experience, the results have been comparable.  There is just not enough data to say.

I did add an option for "Exotic - Drone" to each of the container dropdowns and updated results to show it.

[mjmj5558 2,346]

3 hours ago, DaringDeer said:

In my experience, the results have been comparable.  There is just not enough data to say.

I did add an option for "Exotic - Drone" to each of the container dropdowns and updated results to show it.

I don't think that it is a good idea, because it is clearly visible that ultra's have different drop rates.

[DaringDeer 656]

3 hours ago, mjmj5558 said:

I don't think that it is a good idea, because it is clearly visible that ultra's have different drop rates.

Clear how? 

Ultra has everything in normal containers plus a few additional options (drone, some turret alts, some ultra skins, coinboxes).  Those are all relatively rare items.  

I agree it would be better to separate the 2 but there is such limited data at this point and ultras are only available sporadically and their contents have changed every time.  Separating them is not going to produce much data.

[mjmj5558 2,346]

3 hours ago, DaringDeer said:

Clear how? 

Ultra has everything in normal containers plus a few additional options (drone, some turret alts, some ultra skins, coinboxes).  Those are all relatively rare items.  

I agree it would be better to separate the 2 but there is such limited data at this point and ultras are only available sporadically and their contents have changed every time.  Separating them is not going to produce much data.

But, it looks like (from contai er opening videos ) that commons are supper commons in ultras, and the last rewards have chance to drop something good. Really different from normal conts, this means that the database will get wrong data.

[Blutaar 1,904]

3 hours ago, mjmj5558 said:

But, it looks like (from contai er opening videos ) that commons are supper commons in ultras, and the last rewards have chance to drop something good. Really different from normal conts, this means that the database will get wrong data.

In general, you tend to get a lot of 'common' loot from normal containers too. I don't think there is a very large differences in rarity-classifications and chances compared to normal containers, just the fact that ultra container-openings dont happen to appear as frequently in the game makes it stand out more when loot from these containers is not astoundingly good

Edited June 4, 2020 by BloodPressure
damn typos

[kydapoot 570]

15 hours ago, DaringDeer said:

In my experience, the results have been comparable.  There is just not enough data to say.

I did add an option for "Exotic - Drone" to each of the container dropdowns and updated results to show it.

Looking at youtube videos, Ultra Containers clearly have a higher chance of the "legendary" tier happening, though it's almost always 10 coinboxes. We're masking the actual results by mixing them with probabilities that simply aren't the same.

8 hours ago, DaringDeer said:

Separating them is not going to produce much data.

Perhaps not, but isn't low data (which will be accumulated over time) better than bad data? We're losing track of what's in real containers by mixing them in with ever-changing Ultras with different sets of probabilities.

Edited June 5, 2020 by kydapoot

[N3tralRE 73]

Personally, I'm all for an experiment to test Ultra Containers' probabilities using Normal Containers as the control group. 

[Statistics stuff incoming]

At several significance levels, we can then see whether differences between Ultra and Normal Container probabilities are within, by statisticians' convention, two standard deviations away from the expected probabilities.

Practically speaking, though, that would require getting buyers on board to gather enough data.  Plus, in my opinion, any Ultra Container openings should be done by non-YouTubers, since I suspect that Tanki YouTubers are given better odds for the sake of advertising and promoting Ultra Containers.

[DaringDeer 656]

There are such small probabilities for any items rare and better and there is such a small amount of data being entered in the form.  I don't think you can use 100 or 200 containers as a reference.  I opened 222 and watched a couple of my friends do the same and the results are all over place.  One of my 111 batches was OK and the other was pretty terrible.  (e.g. At one point, I opened 90 containers in a row and received 87 common and 3 uncommon.  Not a satisfying experience.)  My friends had much, much better luck.  I really just wanted the drone and useful hull alterations and out of all of it, the only things of note were hunter ultra, 1 epic hull alteration, adrenaline turret augment for 5 hulls. 

I do have to tell you, the addition of the 5, 10, and 20 coinboxes is a kick in the nuts.  I received 35 coinboxes that gave essentially nothing (~150 tankcoins) and they took the places of potentially useful equipment.   

[D.A.R.K.N.E.S.S 432]

If someone is willing to put in the time/effort, the test server has 1 million tankoins loaded in right now. Might be a great opportunity to gather some mass data on container probabilities and get more accurate results from the larger sample size. 

 

[HD100l 1]

Shlt now I don't feel like playing the stupid super missions for only to get x125 supplies from my 2 to 4 containers. Last missions that's all I got and probably wont get anything good this time too. With the disbalance of how many containers you get is crazy that's why they have to nerf them, super missions only get you 11 possible and really hard to get and the bundle gives you x150.

[cosmic666 1,055]

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Edited August 31, 2020 by cosmic666

[DaringDeer 656]

Think it is common knowledge that rewards from coinboxes have been dramatically reduced.  If enough people were interested I could set up a form with results for coinboxes but I think it is unlikely that anyone will take the time to enter their results given the few entries into the form for containers which everyone get.

[cosmic666 1,055]

15 minutes ago, DaringDeer said:

Think it is common knowledge that rewards from coinboxes have been dramatically reduced.  If enough people were interested I could set up a form with results for coinboxes but I think it is unlikely that anyone will take the time to enter their results given the few entries into the form for containers which everyone get.

Understand, i'm certainly not getting anymore ta for reply.  

[TheCongoSpider 8,942]

Since around mid-July to now, container rewards have been very bad, commons everywhere with very few uncomons sprinkled in. I'm getting too many quintuple commons from 5-container openings. Two weeks worth of missions over and over and nothing to show for it. I have a feeling it's going to be worse when Tanker's Day comes around. 

[SporkZilla 1,775]

5 minutes ago, TheCongoSpider said:

Since around mid-July to now, container rewards have been very bad, commons everywhere with very few uncomons sprinkled in. I'm getting too many quintuple commons from 5-container openings. Two weeks worth of missions over and over and nothing to show for it. I have a feeling it's going to be worse when Tanker's Day comes around. 

I've opened 44 containers since the 14th of July (all single openings, for the mathematically illiterate)

28 common + 6 uncommon + 5 Rare + 3 Epic

Have had a run of 7 commons and the last 5 were common, but too early to confirm a trend towards commons