Bruh I hated that topic in school ?

You'd have to run the simulation for an average of 2·2.5L times (L is number of launches or energy/8) to ensure meaningful results, but if wanna experiment, here is the map of of minigame. Edit Because probability of least likely launch sequence is lower bounded by PL, where P = 12 / ( 41 + 12 ) ≈ 1 / 4.42, you would actually need a multiple of 1 / PL = 4.42L simulations to start getting precise results... it's safe to say devs had access to some mathematical literature instead for estimating probabilities ?

I would say with advertisements in general, keeping expectations low always leads to positive results ?

Well you're not wrong, and I highlighted some of this under the Caveats section. The algorithm assumes every station has some chance to step forward or backward. In reality, probability distribution of steps for blue station is something like { 1 step forward: 41, 2 steps forward: 12 }, and red station is { 1 step forward: 32, 2 steps forward: 17, 2 steps backward: 19 }. The algorithm combines these out to { 1 step forward: 73, 2 steps forward: 29, 2 steps backward: 19 } (what you see on the widget) for both blue and red stations. I don't have a proof but my intuition tells me with enough data about distribution the result should converge to actual probability. Without clever programming techniques the algorithm for exact probability - which involves counting all possibilities one by one - is atleast exponential time (O(3L), meaning with an increase in number of launches, calculation time increases exponentially). Or, you could just run a simulation - which is what I believe the devs did to estimate average energy needed to reach planets for pricing shop bundles. Either way thas no fuun. I tried to think of a polynomial time algorithm (like the current one is O(L3) ignoring nCr) but sadly the logic becomes too complex to handle. Hopefully I'll find a neat solution one day :) In any case, I appreciate the effort that went into creating this mini-game, both design and theoretical side. Here to even more exciting mini-games in the future ?

OMG! It was a miracle! I kept pushing 2 steps forward (Even on red station). And thankfully I got 1st planet reward! Thanks man! ? I really was hopeless that I won't even get anything from this event. But thanks man! I can give you golds as a reward.

Thank you for keeping this game afloat a little longer with your purchase of 200 ultras Roughly ~15% of all who completed the missions. @ImAtWork As any for-profit business must, they obviously thought this through. You had at least some chance of finishing the game as a F2P, albeit astronomically low. Really makes you rethink the whole lottery or speculative business industries huh. I just wish I had released this estimation tool sooner so everyone coud've managed their time better (decent ui takes unnecessarily long). In fact, I strongly wish Alternativa was more transparent with their loot-box items rarity and future chance based events in general, especially since majority of economy has drastically shifted from asthetics driven monetary incentives (the likes of paint separation update) to serious gameplay advantages underpinned by mere chance. Obviously knowing the probability in advance let's people make smarter investment decisions and you end up with less disappointed players. This also promotes saving enough (within limit) money for an in-game item you reaaally desire and thus, a healthier gaming community in the long term. But it's quite clear at this point they're trying to squeeze every bit of return from their soon-to-be 12 years long investment and I honestly can't blame them...However, the latest news about Tesla's tactical gameplay did give me a little more hope for the future of this game :)

Aha sry mb, I must've put in wrong numbers earlier; you had ~61.78% chance of getting to first planet from station 0 with 176 energy (11 days from missions). From your current station 20, its much higher! If all goes well, consider yourself 90 tankoins richer ?

kidney out

It starts repeating from the same pool of use supplies, get kills, (earn experience?). Although you should seriously check your chances before because ~11 days worth of energy is likely not enough to reach even the first planet.

@fghjkl54 Was this confusing? Should I change it to ~2.3 times less likely than common item in containers?

Don't worry daddy hazel will pull you back 2 steps if you do ?

It must have said something like ~2.3 times more likely to get common item in container because common item rarity of containers is estimated to be about 60%

Assuming your remaining energy (including upcoming 3 days rewards) is R, then if R/4 is less than 43-24 you have 0 chance. Otherwise use the tool I posted above :) Sadly not without buying ? Rest assured radar position does not affect the outcome ?

Yelloow Peepaal! I know I'm super late to the party but here is something exciting for y'all, you can calculate your chance of reaching a given ? with a teeny weeny widget I created. Following are the two ways you can use it: 1. Embedded on https://space.tankionline.com 2. Standalone page The UI is loosely put together and only tested on latest chrome version, I'm sorry if it doesn't look as shown in the image, but in case it completely breaks, just PM me and I can send you a jsFiddle link to calculate probability instead. All fields are self-explanatory but if you need to, just hover over each one to understand what they mean. The step distribution frequency field is observed number of 1 steps, 2 steps, and -2 steps based on a video posted earlier in this topic and my personal account. If you have been recording these values send me a PM and I'll update it on the widget so everyone benefits from a better approximation. WHY ON ANY ? WOULD YOU WASTE TIME CREATING THIS?! Well first of all, this was an interesting challenge (certainly more entertaining than the game itself ). Secondly, I was experimenting with Svelte frontend framework and Cloudflare workers and considered this a perfect opportunity to tryout production workflows for my other projects. HOW ON ANY ? WOULD YOU CALCULATE THIS?! CLOSING NOTE I have to say Alternativa's designer are on ? lately. Design wise this mini-game looked fantastic! I was certainly hoping for a little more tactical gameplay than a dice roll and pray gimmick but I mean they did they market it as a boardgame. By the way, there really is no special secret to winning; it's identical to any other boardgame with a three sided dice if that even exists. If you analyze the socket connection you'll notice that on launch browser is simply asking the server for new user score without sending any additional data about radar position or timing between launch and confirmation. The server simply "rolls" a three sided dice (step 1, step 2, step -2) to determine next position, and responds back with the new score. PS don't mind the nickname ?, this an old alt account and I'm using it for this post for reasons unrelated to tanki.