Conditional probability has entered the chat You opened 149 conts and received 17 rares, which is over the average or expected value of ~15 rares. So I guess the chance of receiving a rare item in general (i.e. infinite container openings) is 10%. Here comes the "twist": the guy who entered the chat. He says that "Given that something happens, what is the probability that you receive XYZ ?". It's quite likely that, given that you get a rare, in ~80% (*) of the cases you receive "no augments", i.e. Repair Kits, Crystals and Paints. In your sample you received 1 Augment in 17 rare openings, which would give a conditional probability of 5-6%, and I see you multiplied the probabilities already. Due to the small sample size, you shouldn't take that number too seriously, though Also, I wouldn't say that the rare augments "belong" to the legendary tier chance-wise. The chance of getting an augment given you get a rare item is as high getting a legendary item without any conditions according to your sample, that's approximately true. On the other side, getting an augment given you get the legendary tier is another thing. (*) = Just an example

Will there ever be another equipment conversion like the Mk Update?