There is something wrong in Smokey Vs Thunder

[shofikur 408]

Without Criticals, smoky is like the worst gun. Smoky's are better than Thunder when the guy using smoky is lucky. I have noticed that, some guy with smoky had 3 consecutive criticals and killed many other tanks easily.....On the other hand, another guy with smoky didn't have one single criticals after 7 shots. It's really doesnt make any sense. As I said, smoky is good only when you are lucky. You will never know if you will be lucky after getting smoky m2 or m3.....IF you arent lucky then it will be waste of crystals!

So, I will suggest to buy thunder m3 because of its splash damage. It can destroy group of tanks at the same time. You need to gain some skills with thunder and then you can be most fearful in the battlefield. You dont need to be lucky if u buy m3 thunder. Good Luck to all if you upgrade thunder.

[dungu 25]

My dear noob ant(aresXT) or whatever your noob name may be,

As you said, the possibility is 1shot of Crit for whatever 11 or 12 shots for a possibility of 9%, right?

See below:

1st. normal shot

2nd. normal shot

3rd normal shot

4th normal shot

5th normal shot

6th normal shot This is your translation of 9% possibility

7th normal shot

8th normal shot

9th normal shot

10th normal shot

11th normal shot

12th CRIT shot

Then it goes back to 1st shot, and so on and so forth.

Well check this out...

1st.~ 4th. normal shot

5th. CRIT shot Go ask your maths teacher if this is also 9% possibility ( cos I honestly think you do need to)

6th.~ 12th. normal shot

Further, check this out,

What if the DEVs program the Smokey shots this way.. ' the whole process of the supposedly 12 shots is stopped once the CRIT happen and a new process will be started, however, the Crit happen will remain as random'

Ever thought of that EINSTEIN?

[dardayy 493]

I think if we want to do an accurate test about smokey, and since crictic hits are unpredictable, then the more time interval you keep shooting, the more the test will be accurate, lets say you take smokey and start shooting tanks without being killed, if you keep shooting within 10 mins, it will give more accurate results about the predictability than over 1 min, and within 30 mins is much better, and 1 hour etc.. i noticed that its really higher than what is written, the reason is that when you give a % for the possibility of something to happen, the new computer program maths has some electrosignalling that will be attracted towared the minimum than the maximum.. there are lot of researches about how the new mind of nets started to form, programs all together will soon make a big mind through different nets, signals they don't follow the math logic that we used to know, its just like when u have an idea in your mind, its possibility is low, but ur mind will act to make it work.

And a comment on someone who adviced to go with thunder m3, well in big maps then smokey doesn't fade down in damage effect from a distance, and the critical hit damage is the same from whatever distance, unlike thunder. And we all nearly agreed that thunder m3 isn't much different than m2, but with the new microupgrades, then thunder m3 will be having more slots to improve its properties than the M2 one.

Edited May 24, 2013 by dardayy

[splitterpoint 10,986]

I'm going to have Smoky at M3 soon, which means I can switch to Thunder M3 or Smoky M3 whenever I want to.

Keep in mind that changing weapons without losing your score is planned.

Edited May 24, 2013 by splitterpoint

[tankcalm 324]

I was not saying there was a 'declining' 9% probability - rather, you were saying that the probability increases with each shot whilst it actually remains constant for each.

 

For example, if I wanted to experiment this, we can safely say the the theoretical probabilty (the one it's meant to have) is 9%. Therefore, let's say I want to test this by getting my own experimental probabilities (probabilites obtained from experimenting). An example set of results is below:

- 2 crits out of 10 shots (20%)

- 7 crits out of 100 shots (7%)

- 98 crits out of 1000 shots (9.8%)

- 904 crits of out 10,000 shots (9.04%)...

...and so on. As we can see, our experimental probabilities get closer to the theoretical probabilty (9%) as we increase the sample size. We'd have to go on forever to actually match the two. So, it's not random, but it's not exactly determined either - there is a margin for 'error' between the two probabilities which decreases as we increase the sample size.

 

Anyway, I will not have this discussion any more, and so I will 'shut up', as you so kindly said.

 

Many Thunders use the self-destructing ability to their advantage, and SD on low health when they know they're going to be destroyed otherwise. Take that away, and you've taken away what can be an advantage of the weapon for most of the more skilled users.

Don't bother, he likes math, but the concept of independence between events and large size sample to be accurate are statistics tools that you don't receive usually before technical high school or university.

[GoldRock 6,165]

Don't bother, he likes math, but the concept of independence between events and large size sample to be accurate are statistics tools that you don't receive usually before technical high school or university.

 

I learnt that in my 8th grade/year in high school, one year ago. Wiki and I are the same age :mellow:

Edited May 25, 2013 by GoldRock

[Raphael2 3,263]

Nope.

Thunder is made for midrange, while smoky is greatest for long and short range.

Edited May 25, 2013 by Raphael2

[Raphael2 3,263]

http://youtu.be/0Q2mLM1YA_g

-_-

Edited May 25, 2013 by Raphael2

[Raphael2 3,263]

I'm not wrong, never said smoky was bad at midrange, but best field for thunder is midrange, because it loose power on long range and it has splash damage on short range.

At mid range, it has maximum damage and can kill multiples opponents at once with splash damage.

[GoldRock 6,165]

What school do you go to? Is it near Chelmsley wood?

 

P.S. I'm 14 :P

 

I know you're 14, so am I :P It's not that near to there, it's close to Manchester.

[dardayy 493]

even after the microupgrades, thunder will die slowly ... i used to be a rico player, it needs lot of skills, then i switched to thunder cuz it needs skills as well, but what i see, twins come like god or smokey and destroy everything with no need for any skills, this is so sad, they just keep shooting with no need to reload, never get tired, just kill kill kill, and isida just turned into a monster, the only thing to stop it is freeze, while isida was supposed to be the angel weapon

Edited May 25, 2013 by dardayy

[Raphael2 3,263]

Lol i quite agree.

[KiwiZaphod 53]

There's more to Tanki than gun damage and hull strength; concealment, manoeuvrability, protection and speed all play a part in success. The skills to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the combination you have, and those of your opponent are also important. Occasionally you are hopelessly out gunned on a map where you can't gain a tactical advantage. Today I was watching a bunch of WOII's with M1 Hornet/Firebird getting systemically taken apart in Stadium Team Deathmatch by shafts and railguns. They kept coming back for more, like somehow it was going to be magically different. There even a couple of our Hornet/Railguners on the central "plinth" on their side of the map to give enfilading fire and they didn't even notice. It was like the opening sequences to Saving Private Ryan, except they never got off the beaches. TACTICS MATTER, PEOPLE!

[red_tank_the_best 300]

Smoky is too powerfull with mammoth or wasp.thunder hasn't any good combination

[KiwiZaphod 53]

Smoky is too powerfull with mammoth or wasp.thunder hasn't any good combination

And yet somehow people with Thunder manage to win battles, and consistently too. And I see loads of Smoky/Mammoth and Smoky/Wasp combinations getting wiped out in battles as well. There's probably another factor coming into play rather than just the hull/weapon combination..... paint? skill? tactics?

[splitterpoint 10,986]

What about hulls? Oh I'm so exited about that!!! Btw, the math has to be in tanki, because without it the game is a total disaster! If you write like Twins - 15 health each shot and Thunder - 90 each shot (Just an example) and then it turns out - 28 Twins each shot and Thunder - 45. Note; math is needed EVERYWHERE!

 

I'm pretty sure the developers will do their math.

I also think each micro upgrade will specifically count for the gun; maybe Twins doesn't even have a speed or health increase micro upgrade.

[Raphael2 3,263]

Because it can't even kill m0 wasp one shot.

Hornet don't need more health.

[Dadisbetterthanyou 2]

Alright guys, I did my own study to see the critical hit chance of Smoky m1 (6% according to the website)

 

 

1st shot: Normal, 2nd shot: Normal, 3rd shot: CRITICAL, 4th shot: Normal, 5th shot: Normal, 6th shot: Normal, 7th shot: Normal, 8th shot: Normal, 9th shot: Normal, 10th shot: Normal, 11th shot: Normal, 12th shot: Normal, 13th shot: Normal, 14th shot: Normal, 15th shot: Normal, 16th shot: Normal, 17th shot: Normal, 18th shot: Normal, 19th shot: Normal, 20th shot: CRITICAL, 21st shot: Normal, 22nd shot: Normal, 23rd shot: Normal, 24th shot: Normal, 25th shot: Normal, 26th shot: Normal, 27th shot: Normal, 28th shot: Normal, 29th shot: Normal, 30th shot: Normal, 31st shot: Normal, 32nd shot: Normal, 33rd shot: Normal, 34th shot: Normal, 35th shot: Normal, 36th shot: Normal, 37th shot: Normal, 38th shot: Normal, 39th shot: Normal, 40th shot: CRITICAL, 41st shot: Normal, 42nd shot: Normal, 43rd shot: Normal, 44th shot: Normal, 45th shot: CRITICAL, 46th shot: Normal, 47th shot: Normal, 48th shot: Normal, 49th shot: CRITICAL, 50th shot: Normal, 51st shot: Normal, 52nd shot: Normal, 53rd shot: Normal, 54th shot: Normal, 55th shot: CRITICAL, 56th shot: Normal, 57th shot: Normal, 58th shot: Normal, 59th shot: Normal, 60th shot: CRITICAL, 61st shot: Normal, 62nd shot: Normal, 63rd shot: Normal, 64th shot: Normal, 65th shot: Normal, 66th shot: Normal, 67th shot: Normal, 68th shot: Normal, 69th shot: Normal, 70th shot: CRITICAL, 71st shot: Normal, 72nd shot: Normal, 73rd shot: Normal, 74th shot: Normal, 75th shot: Normal, 76th shot: Normal, 77th shot: Normal, 78th shot: Normal, 79th shot: Normal, 80th shot: Normal, 81st shot: CRITICAL, 82nd shot: Normal, 83rd shot: Normal, 84th shot: Normal, 85th shot: Normal, 86th shot: Normal, 87th shot: CRITICAL, 88th shot: Normal, 89th shot: Normal, 90th shot: Normal, 91st shot: Normal, 92nd shot: Normal, 93rd shot: Normal, 94th shot: Normal, 95th shot: Normal, 96th shot: Normal, 97th shot: Normal, 98th shot: Normal, 99th shot: Normal, 100th shot: Normal!

 

In conclusion, I did m1 Smoky and according to the site it's 6% chance you'll get a critical hit. While that may be true, I did do 100 shots and got 10 critical hits. So 10% of my 100 shots were critical hits.

Edited May 26, 2013 by Dadisbetterthanyou

[r_ELain_3S0 17]

Here we go again. The % shown on the site is only true for an infinite amout of shots.

 

One interesting thing I got to see about Smoky and Thunder after the changes is the "balancing" between these two weapons and their protective paints. When rebalance happend everyone bought Thunder and soon Emerald became the most used paint in the game. When people realized that Smoky was not as weak as before, after being totally destroyed by the few players who got Smoky right after rebalance, the amout of Smokys in battles started to grow, and the number of paints with smoky protection rose. At this point, battles were full of Smokys with Savanna, and the only thing that could harm such combination was the forgotten, and weak-deemed, Thunder. The number of Thunder Savanna combinations increased, as well as other weapon teamed with Savanna or Rustle. Then, Thunder started to regain its effectiveness, since relevant anti-smoky paints don't have thunder protecion, and Emerald got back in the game. Currently we are at this point. (Generalissimo battles, mostly NS, are the ones taken in account)

Edited May 26, 2013 by r_ELain_3S0

[GoldRock 6,165]

Here we go again. The % shown on the site is only true for an infinite amout of shots.

 

Yep, theoretical probability ^^

 

Though I applaud Dad's (cool name) dedication, it would have taken a while to do that experiment. I think this helps to show that the given stats are not true even for an infinite amount of shots, as most players have realised by now.

[dardayy 493]

Alright guys, I did my own study to see the critical hit chance of Smoky m1 (6% according to the website)

 

 

1st shot: Normal, 2nd shot: Normal, 3rd shot: CRITICAL, 4th shot: Normal, 5th shot: Normal, 6th shot: Normal, 7th shot: Normal, 8th shot: Normal, 9th shot: Normal, 10th shot: Normal, 11th shot: Normal, 12th shot: Normal, 13th shot: Normal, 14th shot: Normal, 15th shot: Normal, 16th shot: Normal, 17th shot: Normal, 18th shot: Normal, 19th shot: Normal, 20th shot: CRITICAL, 21st shot: Normal, 22nd shot: Normal, 23rd shot: Normal, 24th shot: Normal, 25th shot: Normal, 26th shot: Normal, 27th shot: Normal, 28th shot: Normal, 29th shot: Normal, 30th shot: Normal, 31st shot: Normal, 32nd shot: Normal, 33rd shot: Normal, 34th shot: Normal, 35th shot: Normal, 36th shot: Normal, 37th shot: Normal, 38th shot: Normal, 39th shot: Normal, 40th shot: CRITICAL, 41st shot: Normal, 42nd shot: Normal, 43rd shot: Normal, 44th shot: Normal, 45th shot: CRITICAL, 46th shot: Normal, 47th shot: Normal, 48th shot: Normal, 49th shot: CRITICAL, 50th shot: Normal, 51st shot: Normal, 52nd shot: Normal, 53rd shot: Normal, 54th shot: Normal, 55th shot: CRITICAL, 56th shot: Normal, 57th shot: Normal, 58th shot: Normal, 59th shot: Normal, 60th shot: CRITICAL, 61st shot: Normal, 62nd shot: Normal, 63rd shot: Normal, 64th shot: Normal, 65th shot: Normal, 66th shot: Normal, 67th shot: Normal, 68th shot: Normal, 69th shot: Normal, 70th shot: CRITICAL, 71st shot: Normal, 72nd shot: Normal, 73rd shot: Normal, 74th shot: Normal, 75th shot: Normal, 76th shot: Normal, 77th shot: Normal, 78th shot: Normal, 79th shot: Normal, 80th shot: Normal, 81st shot: CRITICAL, 82nd shot: Normal, 83rd shot: Normal, 84th shot: Normal, 85th shot: Normal, 86th shot: Normal, 87th shot: CRITICAL, 88th shot: Normal, 89th shot: Normal, 90th shot: Normal, 91st shot: Normal, 92nd shot: Normal, 93rd shot: Normal, 94th shot: Normal, 95th shot: Normal, 96th shot: Normal, 97th shot: Normal, 98th shot: Normal, 99th shot: Normal, 100th shot: Normal!

 

In conclusion, I did m1 Smoky and according to the site it's 6% chance you'll get a critical hit. While that may be true, I did do 100 shots and got 10 critical hits. So 10% of my 100 shots were critical hits.

+1 great .. and the more time you extend, the more % you will get, of course providing that your tank keeps shooting without being destroyed "as part of the test"

Edited May 26, 2013 by dardayy

[dardayy 493]

I even did a test on test server, smokey against shaft at stadium .. i wished to show you on video.. but it was so easy to destroy one shaft and was about to finish the other one as well.. and smokey can keep shooting at a tank moving fast from a distance, unlike any other gun.. i think smokey is the king of the game, followed by twins, isida "the angel that turned into a monster" then railgun .. and this fact is a disaster to the game, as no place for skills left anymore

Edited May 26, 2013 by dardayy

[Descape 16]

I think a Thunder M1 has a chance to compete with M3. M1 and M3 are pretty close.

[Dadisbetterthanyou 2]

+1 great .. and the more time you extend, the more % you will get, of course providing that your tank keeps shooting without being destroyed "as part of the test"

What I did to do this, was I got a Smoky m1, doesn't matter what hull. Then, I had another of my accounts, and put on Mammoth, doesn't matter what turret. It doesn't have to be Mammoth either, as long as it can survive a critical. Then I had another account, and put an Isida behind the Mammoth. Then, the forum as a tab. So, got a "private" battle and linked it to all the accounts. Then, I shot with Smoky, looked how much damage it did on the Mammoth, healed the Mammoth with Isida, put the results in the forum, and did it again and again until it was 100 shots. I might even do 1,000 shots, but that would flood a bit, I might as well just say how many criticals I got with those 1,000 shots. Edited May 27, 2013 by Dadisbetterthanyou

[KiwiZaphod 53]

What I did to do this, was I got a Smoky m1, doesn't matter what hull. Then, I had another of my accounts, and put on Mammoth, doesn't matter what turret. It doesn't have to be Mammoth either, as long as it can survive a critical. Then I had another account, and put an Isida behind the Mammoth. Then, the forum as a tab. So, got a "private" battle and linked it to all the accounts. Then, I shot with Smoky, looked how much damage it did on the Mammoth, healed the Mammoth with Isida, put the results in the forum, and did it again and again until it was 100 shots. I might even do 1,000 shots, but that would flood a bit, I might as well just say how many criticals I got with those 1,000 shots.

Taking your original experiment, the chance of 10 critical out of 100 tries, if P(critical) is 0.06, will be (0.06^10) x (0.94^90) x (Possible ways of choosing 10 from 100), which if I remember my combinations maths correctly comes out at 3.99% chance. So - somewhere between the chance of getting five heads in a row when you toss a coin (3.125%) and four heads (6.25%) ; unlikely, but not impossible.