Let's Discuss Smoky!

[r_I_already_won0 2,339]

Thank you  :)

 

To 1) I'd think that the first shot is the critical, then the 2nd has 20% (cannot be released), 3rd has 40% (cannot be released) and the 4th shot has 60% probability (can be released). The 6th shot is the last possible critical shot in this case then. Why do you think the 4th shot has 40% chance?

Well, because it's actually a series of 5 shots instead of 6, but you are counting the last shot of the previous tally as the first one. Also, I don't think it's probably that one shot would have 100% chance of critical....;)

Edited December 21, 2016 by r_I_already_won0

[wolverine848 13,097]

Well, because it's actually a series of 5 shots instead of 6, but you are counting the last shot of the previous tally as the first one. Also, I don't think it's probably that one shot would have 100% chance of critical.... ;)

Aren't all the shots independent?  You could have three criticals in a row.  Or.... you could have no criticals in 6 shots.

[Tani_S 736]

Well, because it's actually a series of 5 shots instead of 6, but you are counting the last shot of the previous tally as the first one. Also, I don't think it's probably that one shot would have 100% chance of critical.... ;)

Yes, I counted it this way, because I wanted to ask/show how the critical shot probability behaves after one critical shot was shot and how the sequence goes on from there. In the sequence I mentioned above it has a 100% chance of a critical at the 6th shot, because the probability adds up (as Shedinja wrote).

 

 

Aren't all the shots independent?  You could have three criticals in a row.  Or.... you could have no criticals in 6 shots.

[No sorry, after you have shot a critical shot, it is not possible that the following two shots will be a critical shot. The second point is also not right, as it is sure that the 5th shot will be a critical shot, if the previous 4 shots were normal shots.]

 

I got all the information from Shedinja's Guide.

 

Edit: What I wrote here was wrong, I didn't know that the two null shots (those are always normal shots) directly after a critical shot are not part of the 5 shot sequence, in which the critical shot probability is adding up.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Tani_S

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Okay. :)

 

Congrats on Rank as well.

Thanks on both counts. :)

 

I posted my delted comment because I assume the isse was a misunderstanding of basic probability. But then I read the wiki page so I delted ti.

 

I am ashamed to say I never noticed the wait-two-shots aspect of Smoky nor the cumulative probabilities. But since I red that I have kept my eye open and sure enough it seems to function that way.

 

Which means there will be times when it is almost certain to get a critical. knowing this will pay off in battle. It's another situational advantage to leverage.

 

Pay 50k to give up these sweet crits?  C'mon Tanki give Smoky gunners an alteration they might actually want! :lol:  

[r_I_already_won0 2,339]

 

Pay 50k to give up these sweet crits?  C'mon Tanki give Smoky gunners an alteration they might actually want! :lol:  

The alteration for Smoky can flip a Wasp, just sayin.'  At least in terms of M3, if the wasp is in midair. It can even knock hornets on their side and swivel Vikings around 180 degrees. :blink:

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Yes, I counted it this way, because I wanted to ask/show how the critical shot probability behaves after one critical shot was shot and how the sequence goes on from there. In the sequence I mentioned above it has a 100% chance of a critical at the 6th shot, because the probability adds up (as Shedinja wrote).

 

 

No sorry, after you have shot a critical shot, it is not possible that the following two shots will be a critical shot. The second point is also not right, as it is sure that the 5th shot will be a critical shot, if the previous 4 shots were normal shots.

 

I got all the information from Shedinja's Guide.

This is an interesting probability calculation and I am not exactly temporally close to my college Probability class  :angry: but I took a stab at it anyway. By my calculations the actual critical hit rate is, is, is ...

 

23.5%

 

Show my work:

 

The odds of scoring a crit in shot number

 

1 = 20%

2 = 32%

3 = 28.8%

4 = 15,36%

5 =   3.84%  

 

How to model the 2-shot-no-crit wait? I used the effective crit hit rate for the number of shots. e.g. if you were lucky enough to score a crit with every "first shot" that means you'd get a crit every 3rd shot. Crit-Wait-Wait. Crit-Wait-Wait.  So the effective rates are

 

1 = 33.3% = 1/3

2 = 25%   = 1/4

3 = 20%   = 1/5

4 = 16.7% = 1/6

5 = 14.3% = 1/7

 

To get the final crit hit rate multiply the various terms and add. .2 x 1/3 + .32 x 1/4 ... = 0.235 = 23.5%

[LittleWillie 3,199]

The alteration for Smoky can flip a Wasp, just sayin.'  At least in terms of M3, if the wasp is in midair. It can even knock hornets on their side and swivel Vikings around 180 degrees. :blink:

Yeah but style points don't give me exp points which give me Cr. :)

 

It'd be fun but for 50k?

[ghost-guns 1,486]

I decided to rent the precision targeting system and...

 

I don't like it because the reload is too slow. I would much rather have M4.

Edited December 24, 2016 by ghost-guns

[ghost-guns 1,486]

Ok I've been playing more with the alt and it is OP, but the reload makes it more difficult for attacking play. The hammer alt looks amazing with 5 clips but perhaps I should just upgrade smoky more?

[PewPewButt 9]

Ok I've been playing more with the alt and it is OP, but the reload makes it more difficult for attacking play. The hammer alt looks amazing with 5 clips but perhaps I should just upgrade smoky more?

 

I decided to rent the precision targeting system and...

 

I don't like it because the reload is too slow. I would much rather have M4.

Um, im waiting for the Alteration sale on the 30th and decided to stop my Smoky m2 25/50 MU for the new Alteration with more damage increased reload. Is it worth it? Should i get it :D ?

[ghost-guns 1,486]

Um, im waiting for the Alteration sale on the 30th and decided to stop my Smoky m2 25/50 MU for the new Alteration with more damage increased reload. Is it worth it? Should i get it :D ?

I wouldn't get it with M2 to be honest. The reload time is noticeable so it's probably best if you almost have M4.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Um, im waiting for the Alteration sale on the 30th and decided to stop my Smoky m2 25/50 MU for the new Alteration with more damage increased reload. Is it worth it? Should i get it :D ?

Since the alterations are going on sale, and since my Cr income is ahead of pace to buy the Paladin kit, I figured I'd get the m1 (impact) and m2 (bigger/slower) alterations. M0, m1, m2, m3, m4 don't enter into the picture as their effects are all relative to level.  No, the dtermining factor me for is Crystals.  Do you have enough so the alterations will not disrupt your other plans?  Then I'd say go ahead. And as for your MU situation, you are at a point where you want to stop with that IMO.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Humph?  I thought someone would have a comment on the reworked Smoky crit hit rate. It accounts for the rising probability on a miss, and the 2-snot 0% crit hit rate after a successful crit hit.

[PewPewButt 9]

Since the alterations are going on sale, and since my Cr income is ahead of pace to buy the Paladin kit, I figured I'd get the m1 (impact) and m2 (bigger/slower) alterations. M0, m1, m2, m3, m4 don't enter into the picture as their effects are all relative to level.  No, the dtermining factor me for is Crystals.  Do you have enough so the alterations will not disrupt your other plans?  Then I'd say go ahead. And as for your MU situation, you are at a point where you want to stop with that IMO.

The crystals is fine since i can save again. Thank you for the insight! But do you think the tradeoff is well worth it? or will it change my gameplay significantly? Which will kill faster: The m2 alteration or completely the vanilla version?

[PewPewButt 9]

I wouldn't get it with M2 to be honest. The reload time is noticeable so it's probably best if you almost have M4.

How's the kill rate though? better with m2 alteration or not much?

[sm0ky 92]

The crystals is fine since i can save again. Thank you for the insight! But do you think the tradeoff is well worth it? or will it change my gameplay significantly? Which will kill faster: The m2 alteration or completely the vanilla version?

If you are accurate with Smoky, the M2 alteration is worth it.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

The crystals is fine since i can save again. Thank you for the insight! But do you think the tradeoff is well worth it? or will it change my gameplay significantly? Which will kill faster: The m2 alteration or completely the vanilla version?

Well it being Christmas I figured I'd spend $2 and rent the two alterations.  I've played 3-4 games on HNY AS with each now.

 

I played against one fellow m2 smoky/viking who had the +impact. It was a pain in the ass. Kept throwing off my shot. So I figured I would be keeping everyone off balance.  Not really.

 

The first shot was great. a Hornet was making a... hornet-line for the capture. I hit him head on with a shot the stopped him dead in his tracks. He restarted my 2nd shot threw him off course. By then other blues has come up and he was killed .. no cap.

 

But over the course of time I did not see enough big impact distruptions to make up for the lack of crits. It's sorta fun ... I will probably buy this at 25k on sale. 

 

Now the other alteration does deliver bigger hits, but the slower pace is really noticeable.  I am a in-fighter. I like fighting at close or even point-blank range. This fire rate really hampers that.  However there are alos time where you cannot fire just as fast as the reload allwos, In those cases the extra damage rocks.I was 1-hitting m1 Wasps with DD up quite often.

 

But overall again I am not sure this is better than vanilla Smoky.  I wil have to think about it before buying.  

 

Well, still a few more days of rental to play around.  I'll post more later if oyu like.

[Tani_S 736]

 

 

This is an interesting probability calculation and I am not exactly temporally close to my college Probability class  :angry: but I took a stab at it anyway. By my calculations the actual critical hit rate is, is, is ...

 

23.5%

 

Show my work:

 

The odds of scoring a crit in shot number

 

1 = 20%

2 = 32%

3 = 28.8%

4 = 15,36%

5 =   3.84%  

 

How to model the 2-shot-no-crit wait? I used the effective crit hit rate for the number of shots. e.g. if you were lucky enough to score a crit with every "first shot" that means you'd get a crit every 3rd shot. Crit-Wait-Wait. Crit-Wait-Wait.  So the effective rates are

 

1 = 33.3% = 1/3

2 = 25%   = 1/4

3 = 20%   = 1/5

4 = 16.7% = 1/6

5 = 14.3% = 1/7

 

To get the final crit hit rate multiply the various terms and add. .2 x 1/3 + .32 x 1/4 ... = 0.235 = 23.5%

 

 

 

Actually I don't understand this, but that might be, because I already did not understand so much of the probability calculations in school  :P

How did you calculate the probability numbers of your first number block? I assume this number block should be applied when being freshly spawned, right (so no critical shot before)? Maybe some explanations would help  :ph34r:

 

Did you mean in the 2nd number block i.e. with "2 = 25%" not the 2nd shot in general but every 2nd shot that have the potential to be a critical shot (which ignores the shots inbetween)?

[PewPewButt 9]

If you are accurate with Smoky, the M2 alteration is worth it.

Yep i only use smoky ever since i started. Aiming wont be a problem. Thanks!

[PewPewButt 9]

Is There a Youtube video showcasing The Smoky M2 Alteration Gameplay? I'd love to see it, so i can put the nail on my decision haha.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Actually I don't understand this, but that might be, because I already did not understand so much of the probability calculations in school  :P

How did you calculate the probability numbers of your first number block? I assume this number block should be applied when being freshly spawned, right (so no critical shot before)? Maybe some explanations would help  :ph34r:

 

Did you mean in the 2nd number block i.e. with "2 = 25%" not the 2nd shot in general but every 2nd shot that have the potential to be a critical shot (which ignores the shots inbetween)?

First table.

 

Yes, the table is for a tank that just spawned or had a ctit hit then its two o% following hits. In short, when the crit hit cycle is 'cleared' or 're-started'.

 

We know from this point there will be a crit hit in the next 5 shots. Table 1 shows how often the crits will fall in the 5-shot sequence.

 

shot1 .... 20%

+

shot2 .... 20% of the time we do not get to shot2 that leaves 80%. But the odds for shot2 is not 20% it is 40%. So ... 80% x 40% = 32%

+

shot3 --- 20%+32%=52% of the time we do not get this far and the odds go up again. So ... 48% x 60% = 28.8%

+

shot4 --- 20%+32%+28.8%=80.8% Same logic, so ... 19.2% x 80% = 15.36%

+

Shot5 ... 3.84% remain and the odds of a crit are 100% so ... = 3.84%

--------

100%

 

Now the 2nd part is where I hoped some peeps with fresher probability would comment ... 

 

To calc the overall % of times a smokey will get a crit hit, if that same smoky can just fire over and over against targets over a large sample size ...

 

I took the portion of times we'd get a shot on attempt 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. I took each result (above) and multiplied  by the effctive crit hit rate for each stage of the sequence, then added each component together..

 

That is, if you got a crit every single time you have the chance - that is, on every "shot1" - you would have a 33% rate. Demonstration Crti hit then assured normal hit then assured normal hit, then back to shot1 and lucky you it is a crit again, normal, normal, crit, normal, normal, ... Smokey works this way 20% of the time, so to speak. 

 

After doing the multiplications and additions you see in table2 you get the overall hit hit frequency of 23.5%. Over the long haul roughly one shot of 4 will be a crit in this system.

 

Fully understanding these probabilities real-time in combat gives the Smoky gunner to somewhat predict when a crit can be expected. This can be especially useful at long range. 

Edited December 26, 2016 by LittleWillie

[PewPewButt 9]

Well it being Christmas I figured I'd spend $2 and rent the two alterations.  I've played 3-4 games on HNY AS with each now.

 

I played against one fellow m2 smoky/viking who had the +impact. It was a pain in the ass. Kept throwing off my shot. So I figured I would be keeping everyone off balance.  Not really.

 

The first shot was great. a Hornet was making a... hornet-line for the capture. I hit him head on with a shot the stopped him dead in his tracks. He restarted my 2nd shot threw him off course. By then other blues has come up and he was killed .. no cap.

 

But over the course of time I did not see enough big impact distruptions to make up for the lack of crits. It's sorta fun ... I will probably buy this at 25k on sale. 

 

Now the other alteration does deliver bigger hits, but the slower pace is really noticeable.  I am a in-fighter. I like fighting at close or even point-blank range. This fire rate really hampers that.  However there are alos time where you cannot fire just as fast as the reload allwos, In those cases the extra damage rocks.I was 1-hitting m1 Wasps with DD up quite often.

 

But overall again I am not sure this is better than vanilla Smoky.  I wil have to think about it before buying.  

 

Well, still a few more days of rental to play around.  I'll post more later if oyu like.

Looking forward! As a f2p i save my crystals and i wanna make sure its worth the investment. Haha!

 

[ghost-guns 1,486]

How's the kill rate though? better with m2 alteration or not much?

It really depends. The kill rate is better mid-range when you have time to reload, if you're attacking then it's worse. The quick reload time is one of the best features of smoky and you lose that ability with the alteration. This is one of the best games I've had with the alt:

 

[Tani_S 736]

 

 

First table.

 

Yes, the table is for a tank that just spawned or had a ctit hit then its two o% following hits. In short, when the crit hit cycle is 'cleared' or 're-started'.

 

We know from this point there will be a crit hit in the next 5 shots. Table 1 shows how often the crits will fall in the 5-shot sequence.

 

shot1 .... 20%

+

shot2 .... 20% of the time we do not get to shot2 that leaves 80%. But the odds for shot2 is not 20% it is 40%. So ... 80% x 40% = 32%

+

shot3 --- 20%+32%=52% of the time we do not get this far and the odds go up again. So ... 48% x 60% = 28.8%

+

shot4 --- 20%+32%+28.8%=80.8% Same logic, so ... 19.2% x 80% = 15.36%

+

Shot5 ... 3.84% remain and the odds of a crit are 100% so ... = 3.84%

--------

100%

 

Now the 2nd part is where I hoped some peeps with fresher probability would comment ... 

 

To calc the overall % of times a smokey will get a crit hit, if that same smoky can just fire over and over against targets over a large sample size ...

 

I took the portion of times we'd get a shot on attempt 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. I took each result (above) and multiplied  by the effctive crit hit rate for each stage of the sequence, then added each component together..

 

That is, if you got a crit every single time you have the chance - that is, on every "shot1" - you would have a 33% rate. Demonstration Crti hit then assured normal hit then assured normal hit, then back to shot1 and lucky you it is a crit again, normal, normal, crit, normal, normal, ... Smokey works this way 20% of the time, so to speak. 

 

After doing the multiplications and additions you see in table2 you get the overall hit hit frequency of 23.5%. Over the long haul roughly one shot of 4 will be a crit in this system.

 

Fully understanding these probabilities real-time in combat gives the Smoky gunner to somewhat predict when a crit can be expected. This can be especially useful at long range.

 

 

Thanks a lot for all the explanations! :)  That helped indeed and it sounds reasonable.

 

Edit: I deleted numbers that were based on wrong assumptions here...

Edited December 28, 2016 by Tani_S

[poohforce 16]

Uhm... ok...

So today has been the first day for me to play Tanki again (I started my first year in college since September).

Just hanging around with my Smoky-Viking combo and during battles I started questioning a lot about my smoky...

So if you guys want to explain to me what has happened to my smoky m3.5, that would be great:

 

- Did my Smoky's reload time get longer?

- I noticed the critical hit got weaker, is this really true?

- What else has happened to the smoky?

 

I'd be grateful if one of you guys want to answer my questions... (imo my smoky's been f.ked up)