Review [Issue 26] [Comparison] Smoky or Thunder?

[Pathfinder 1,690]

Smoky or Thunder?

Preamble

Smoky and Thunder are undoubtedly two of the most powerful medium-long range weapons available in the game, playable in pretty much every map and every game mode. I'm sure every player has had the chance to wield at least one of these killing-machines, as well as the misfortune to have to face one. Both are great turrets. Both can dominate a battle in the hands of a skilled user. But is one better than the other?

In this issue's comparison, the second in the series, I hope to get to the bottom of this hotly-debated topic!

[The rank at which any item unlocks has some bearing on its power. So in order to successfully compare any two items, we must look at the fully micro-upgraded M3 statistics. This is also logical as many players want to plan ahead and start upgrading their ‘endgame’ equipment early on.]

Damage

As usual, we shall start with the basics: the ability of the turret to do damage. Smoky has a reload time of 1.3 seconds, and a damage of 40.5 per shell. Therefore, in one minute, smoky shoots (60/1.3) shots, giving a damage per minute (DPM) of (60/1.3)*40.5= 1870. Thunder has a reload time of 2 seconds, and a damage of 80 per shot. Therefore, in one minute, Thunder shoots (60/2) shots and has a damage per minute (DPM) of (60/2)*80= 2400.

However, it's not as straightforward as that, since we need to factor in Smoky's infamous critical hits, each one doing almost three times normal damage. Over a long period, around 18.15% of Smoky's shots should be critical hits.

Smoky crit mechanics are as follows, special thanks to @AbsoluteZero for helping:

The chance of a critical hit on a particular shot is dependent on the crits that come before. After every crit, the chance of an individual critical hit is reset back to -40% (0% effectively). Each consecutive non-crit after that will increase the critical hit chance by 20%, all the way up to 100%.

Then, the chance of a particular number of shots to make a crit can be calculated, simply by multiplying (1-probability) for all previous probabilities by the chance of that particular shot being a crit.



For example, for the 6th shot to be a crit, we must have no crits before on shots 1 to 5, and then a crit on the 6th shot. The probability is (1-0)*(1-0)*(1-0)*(1-0.2)*(1-0.4)*0.6 = 1*1*1*0.8*0.6*0.6= 0.288.

What this means essentially is that there is a 28.8% chance that after a crit is made, there will be 5 consecutive non-crits before the next crit (crit on 6th shot).

Now the statistical mean number of shots can be calculated, by multiplying the number of shots needed for a crit by their respective chances, and adding them up.

So, statistical mean= 1*0 + 2*0 + 3*0 + 4*0.2 + 5*0.32 + 6*0.288 + 7*0.1536 + 8* 0.0384 = 5.5104.

This means we expect to crit every 5.5104 shots. Thus, as a percentage, the percentage of crit shots we expect over a long period of time is 100/5.5104 = 18.15%.

This is the value given to you in the garage for a fully MUed M3 (M4) Smoky - we use this to check.

As you can also see, for an M4 Smoky, it is very unlikely to go 7 shots without going a critical hit (3.84%), and impossible to get a crit within 3 shots of hitting one previously.

When doing calculations like these, it is always useful to check, and this can be easily done. Testing the model with the base M3 stratistics, it does indeed give an overall crit chance of 17.53% - exactly what it gives in the garage:

In a similar fashion:

M2:

M1:

M0:

It is also interesting to note that the lower the modification, the more erratic the critical hits. For example, an M0 smoky can go for 21 shots before hitting a crit!

Note that this is just a possible model of what happens. We cannot be absolutely certain, since all we have to work with are 5 sets of data. However, since the model does work to 100% accuracy in each of the five cases, it is highly probable that this model is indeed correct.

So, we now know that on average 18.15% of shots will do critical damage at 120. We must adjust our above calculations for DPM accordingly.Out of the (60/1.3) shots, (60/1.3)*0.1815 shots will be critical hits, each one doing 120-40.5 = 79.5 more damage than normal. Hence, our adjusted DPM will equal 1870 + (60/1.3)*0.1815*79.5= 2535 DPM.

Thus smoky has a higher DPM, 2535 compared to Thunder's 2400.

Another key aspect I'd like to introduce is 'wasted damage'. A primary example is railgun and hornet. A single rail shot will take a hornet down to minimal health, and so the whole 166 damage is realised. However, the second shot required to finish the job still requires the same length of recharge, but does effectively much less damage. And so the second shot that has potential to do 166 damage has 'wasted damage', since it actually did much less. (This is one advantage shaft has over railgun, since it can fire a fast-loading arcade shot, and is something that will be talked about in Shaft vs. Railgun.)

Thunder, shooting slower and dealing higher damage is more susceptible to wasting damage than a Smoky. And this could mean doing less then the expected damage output.

Range

But, damage for both turrets is affected by range.

Smoky does maximum damage up to 60 metres, decreasing to 30% of max damage at 180 metres.

Thunder does maximum damage up to 70 metres, decreasing to 60% of max damage at 140 metres.

Now we can plot damage output against distance for both turrets (blue is Smoky, red is Thunder):

What this demonstrates is that up to around 70 metres, you would expect higher damage from Smoky, and above 70 metres, you would expect higher damage from Thunder.

Thunder also seems to have a much more consistent damage, making it a more versatile weapon, usable across all ranges.

Other Assets

Of course, we cannot forget to mention Thunder's splash damage. This ability enables Thunder to hit multiple targets, which can effectively double or triple (or more!) damage output. It also enables the user to do damage against enemies that are not directly in sight, by shooting obstacles or the ground around the enemy tank.

Smoky does not have splash, but it does have a very high impact force. This effect is overlooked by some, but is in fact a very deadly feature. It can put aim off enemy tanks, especially the likes of railgun and shaft while they are preparing to fire, and can flip enemy tanks while they are airborne.

Maps and Modes

Small Maps: In general, Smoky would be the better choice here, since it has a higher damage output at short range. Furthermore, small maps can make Thunder's splash damage more of a liability than an asset, as it is much harder to keep a safe distance from the enemy to avoid self-damage.

Large Maps: Here, I believe the opposite is true. Large maps mean that self-damage is less of a worry and fully utilises Thunder's impressive range.

Deathmatch: Here, there will usually be plenty of enemies to shoot at. This means that it is likely that there will be enemies within 60 metres, where Smoky should have the upper hand in terms of damage.

However, Thunder's ability to hit multiple targets makes it incredibly easy to steal kills, which is what this mode is about.

Team Deathmatch: Again, splash damage becomes immensely useful as you can hit multiple enemies. But, in reality both turrets are excellent, depending on the role you are playing.

If you are upfront in the battle, in close proximity to the enemy, Smoky may be the way to go. But if you prefer to stay behind and support from a distance, Thunder is a better choice.

Capture the Flag: Thunder is a midfield weapon. Its self-damage means that offensives against the flag is not always easy, as well as making defending more difficult. Thunder for me is a weapon that can be used to support all areas of the battle, and provide covering fire from distance.

Smoky is a much cleaner turret in the fact that it does no self-damage, meaning that it makes a better offensive turret than Thunder. Defensively it may also be better, due to its impressive short-range damage. Critical hits can really hurt an enemy with your flag.

So, whether Smoky or Thunder is preferable depends on which role you wish to play.

Capture Points: Although self-damage limits a Thunder user's ability to capture points themselves, when the enemies are congregated at the capture points, splash damage really sets Thunder apart from Smoky. In this mode there will be plenty of chances to utilise Thunder's splash ability, meaning that (certainly in my opinion) Thunder is definitely the way to go in most circumstances. It's not hard to imagine a Thunder user sitting a safe distance from the capture point, pounding away at it, with each shot doing damage to multiple enemies. I would go so far to say that Thunder is one of the best turrets in the game for Capture Points.

The Verdict

I hope I have got across the numerous factors that determine which turret is better in particular situations.

Also, I hope you have a better understanding of the two turrets and their mechanics. Understanding the mechanics of the game is an important part of becoming a better player!

Ultimately, if you have to make a choice of one over the other, if you want a versatile turret that can be used across all ranges, with a splash ability to hit multiple targets and enemies in a variety of places, go for Thunder. If you want a short range specialist, with a crippling shot impact force that can redirect enemy aim, go for Smoky.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to give any feedback, or ask for clarification on anything I've said below!

[hogree 4,179]

Fantastic comparisons here, really well-covered, great use of graphs and interesting on the crits. Good job, mate!

[aBdUlLaHkInGg 39]

Smoky would be better.

[Kotooshu 30]

I would always prefer Smoky. And honestly, Thunder's gameplay is boring for me.

[fluctuation123 3,435]

indeed a very well-written and helpful article. Thank you! My only gripe is i have m0s for both of them. :(

[HaloScorpion 79]

B.E.A.U.T.I.F.U.L. (article)

[pizzaslad 471]

Thunder FTW :wub: 

 

Good job. It was a decent read for me

[7919zola 252]

Another great and very informative comparison. Job well done, and I hope to be seeing more of your work kirby.  ;)

[Mr.SV.ENS 738]

In my opinion both Smoky and Thunder are really strong at the moment, together with Railgun they're probably the strongest weapons in the game right now.

[naca7 143]

Good Job!!!

[lordmostafa 3,821]

Awesome work my friend, I will always go to by dear Thunder  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:

[lukey0 27,543]

I have always liked Thunder more than Smoky.  :D

Good article enjoyed reading it!

[andrius2525 5]

Thunder is best :D I am always for thunder :P

[aom112 20]

Good job Kirby, im gettinbg thunder  :P.

[TNTRicohat 41]

thunder is better but smoky not bad too

 

I stick with railgun its feel me better B)

[Pathfinder 1,690]

Thanks for the feedback guys!

 

I hope bias didn't creep into my article... I personally quite like smoky :p

[redfrostgragon 4]

I am gonna go with smoky thanks kirby 

[dragonite7 20]

nice article :o  now i might finally upgrade smoky to m3 :lol:

[CASTYgador_10.0 0]

THUNDER IS GOOD GUN

[RustyNail 1,538]

I love thunder and I dislike smoky. But, I'm afraid that for an aggresive player like me, smoky would be more useful... Pity.. :huh:

[trombone_ftw 734]

Great article.

 

It was hard on my eyes tho .-.

[opidude 437]

gogo smoky go!!!

[RMerl 4]

Nice and useful article! Well done! A big fan of Smoky here ;)

[deathfromabove_tanki 92]

How effective is thunder without drugs in a drug war?

I am looking for a turret that I will not use so many drugs as I do with isida and I was reccomended thunder by goldrock.

[trombone_ftw 734]

^ Weapons with higher ROFs are usually better in drug wars, like Firebird, Freeze, Twins, even Smoky

 

But drugging? Thunder is a beast.