Frequency of Gold Boxes

[greyat 2,972]

There has been much debate among us all as on the drop rate of gold boxes. Some insist that it is 1/7000, and point out that the Tanki Wiki supports it, but many experienced gold hunters attest that the rate has decreased.

 

Hence, it would seem to optimal to settle this argument once and for all. Here, in this topic, you may post pictures of battles that you have been in, along with the number of golds that dropped. Please ensure that the battle fund may be seen.

 

It is important that you only post pictures of battles that you were in from start to finish; else, the estimate will be flawed. In addition, do not cherry pick - that is, only posting pictures of battles where there were no golds, or where there were many golds; that will seriously affect results.

[greyat 2,972]

Total fund: 235755

Total golds: 24

 

Average fund per gold: 9813.125

Average golds per 7k fund: 0.713

Edited July 9, 2015 by greyat

[greyat 2,972]

I'll start.

Fund: 696; Golds: 0.

[lukey0 27,543]

Reserved (on phone ATM)

[Maf 32,305]

Pointless discussion. Let me get to my PC and I'll explain why.

 

Edit:

See my reply below.

Edited July 11, 2015 by Maf

[greyat 2,972]

Pointless discussion. Let me get to my PC and I'll explain why.

Ok then. Might as well as lock it now?

Edited July 9, 2015 by greyat

[LeIouch_Vi_Britannia 6,163]

Ok then. Might as well as lock it now?

surely not b4 he explains :p

[greyat 2,972]

surely not b4 he explains :P

If it is so pointless then he might as well as lock it.

[a7x_Pedro48 13,999]

Station 310 minutes DM 10 Golds
 

 
Tribute 310 minutes DM 11 Golds
 

 

[greyat 2,972]

Polygon CP, 60 min, 10274 fund, 2 golds.

[genak138 950]

This is not really an accurate way of figuring it out. People might only post screenshots of battles in which a gold dropped every 5000 crystals or only post pics of battles with no golds. It would only work if the people who post pics show a screenshot of every single battle that they played in for the day, and did so on a regular basis, say every Monday. If people just post pics, it could make the results biased.

And, of course, there's the chance that some people will lie -_-

[greyat 2,972]

This is not really an accurate way of figuring it out. People might only post screenshots of battles in which a gold dropped every 5000 crystals or only post pics of battles with no golds. It would only work if the people who post pics show a screenshot of every single battle that they played in for the day, and did so on a regular basis, say every Monday. If people just post pics, it could make the results biased.

And, of course, there's the chance that some people will lie -_-

I don't play enough to use my own results. Unless you can suggest something better than this?

[greyat 2,972]

Golds: 0. The one before had 1 gold, 11485 fund.

[lukey0 27,543]

MAFIOS0, wheres the reason why its pointless? :p

[ariking777 940]

 

Pointless discussion. Let me get to my PC and I'll explain why.

 

I've already explained :D

 

There has been much debate among us all as on the drop rate of gold boxes. Some insist that it is 1/7000, and point out that the Tanki Wiki supports it, but many experienced gold hunters attest that the rate has decreased.

 

Hence, it would seem to optimal to settle this argument once and for all. Here, in this topic, you may post pictures of battles that you have been in, along with the number of golds that dropped. Please ensure that the battle fund may be seen.

 

It is important that you only post pictures of battles that you were in from start to finish; else, the estimate will be flawed. In addition, do not cherry pick - that is, only posting pictures of battles where there were no golds, or where there were many golds; that will seriously affect results.

 I'm sorry to say it, but this "experiment" surely won't work. If the chances are 1/7000 (for the example; it could be any other chance), it does not mean that a Gold will have been dropped at least once when the fund reaches 7000. It means that the more times you play battles till their fund is 7k, the more percents out of the those times will include a Gold dropped. In other words, the more times you reach 7k Fund in any battles, the more the chances are gonna get closer and closer to 1/7000. Let's give a simple example to show you what I mean: The chances of a fair coin to drop on each side are 1/2. Right? The chances of a coin to drop on each side are 1/2, but it doesn't mean that if you'll throw the coin let's say 10 times, for sure it will be 5 times dropped on one side and 5 times on the other side. The fact that chances are what they are means that the more times you get to test the implementation of the chances, the closer the chances will be to their real value.

 

Eventually, the more times you'll throw the coin, the closer the amount of times that it dropped in each side will be closer to a half of the total. For instance, if you throw a coin 5000 times, the amount of times that the coin dropped on each side will be closer to a half of the times than it is when you throw it 10 times.

Hence, this experiment is invalid :)

Edited July 9, 2015 by ariking777

[greyat 2,972]

 

 

 

 

 

I've already explained :D

 

 I'm sorry to say it, but this "experiment" surely won't work. If the chances are 1/7000 (for the example; it could be any other chance), it does not mean that a Gold will have been dropped at least once when the fund reaches 7000. It means that the more times you play battles till their fund is 7k, the more percents out of the those times will include a Gold dropped. In other words, the more times you reach 7k Fund in any battles, the more the chances are gonna get closer and closer to 1/7000. Let's give a simple example to show you what I mean: The chances of a fair coin to drop on each side are 1/2. Right? The chances of a coin to drop on each side are 1/2, but it doesn't mean that if you'll throw the coin let's say 10 times, for sure it will be 5 times dropped on one side and 5 times on the other side. The fact that chances are what they are means that the more times you get to test the implementation of the chances, the closer the chances will be to their real value.

 

Eventually, the more times you'll throw the coin, the closer the amount of times that it dropped in each side will be closer to a half of the total. For instance, if you throw a coin 5000 times, the amount of times that the coin dropped on each side will be closer to a half of the times than it is when you throw it 10 times.

Hence, this experiment is invalid :)

 

 

 

Sigh. I thought people wouldn't understand this. It is in fact extremely valid; the variation in this set of data should eventually approach that of a Normal distribution, allowing inferential statistics to be performed. As we amass more and more data, the fact is that the variation in the data (the standard deviation) approaches zero.

Hence if the average amount of golds boxes dropped in a match that has 7k fund is supposed to be 1, but we find from the data that it is in fact 0.7 gold boxes, then there is a significant chance, given that we have large amounts of data, that the 1/7000 rate that is given is wrong. Which is the point of this experiment, to collect large amounts of data.

Edited July 9, 2015 by greyat

[dilsharox 2,395]

i think the gold box drop chance has increased

[momy950666 960]

no gold fund 9500

[Rohit_1997 456]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybTfjHMPc3Y

[ariking777 940]

 

 

 

 

Sigh. I thought people wouldn't understand this. It is in fact extremely valid; the variation in this set of data should eventually approach that of a Normal distribution, allowing inferential statistics to be performed. As we amass more and more data, the fact is that the variation in the data (the standard deviation) approaches zero.

Hence if the average amount of golds boxes dropped in a match that has 7k fund is supposed to be 1, but we find from the data that it is in fact 0.7 gold boxes, then there is a significant chance, given that we have large amounts of data, that the 1/7000 rate that is given is wrong. Which is the point of this experiment, to collect large amounts of data.

This experiment still wouldn't be valid even when considering what you said - you yourself mentioned (quote) "...than there is a significant chance, given that we have large amounts of data, that the 1/7000 rate is wrong". The fact that there is a chance the 1/7000 rate is wrong doesn't mean that it is. For all you know, if you collect 20000 screenshots of battles with over 7k Fund and no Gold, the next 100000 screenshots would show battles with over 7k Fund and exactly 1 Gold. If you want to be sure that the chances are NOT 1/7000 by collecting masses of screenshots, you won't be able to be sure your result is valid unless you collect INFINITY of screenshots.

 

If you really wanna be fancy all of those who aren't math geeks like me and don't want their brain to malfunction - DON'T OPEN THE SPOILER BELOW!)

 

 

 

 

(X is the group of battles, evidence screenshots; g represents a Gold)

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for that blast of math-craze of mine :D Sometimes I just have to let it out :P

 

 

Edited July 9, 2015 by ariking777

[greyat 2,972]

This experiment still wouldn't be valid even when considering what you said - you yourself mentioned (quote) "...than there is a significant chance, given that we have large amounts of data, that the 1/7000 rate is wrong". The fact that there is a chance the 1/7000 rate is wrong doesn't mean that it is. For all you know, if you collect 20000 screenshots of battles with over 7k Fund and no Gold, the next 100000 screenshots would show battles with over 7k Fund and exactly 1 Gold. If you want to be sure that the chances are NOT 1/7000 by collecting masses of screenshots, you won't be able to be sure your result is valid unless you collect INFINITY of screenshots.

 

If you really wanna be fancy all of those who aren't math geeks like me and don't want their brain to malfunction - DON'T OPEN THE SPOILER BELOW!)

 

 

 

 

(X is the group of battles, evidence screenshots; g represents a Gold)

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for that blast of math-craze of mine :D Sometimes I just have to let it out :P

 

 

Ok you sound like you don't really understand inferential statistics.

 

Yes, I can't prove that the probability is not 1/7000. But I can show, with 99% certainty, that it is not 1/7000. And that is what I am after.

[greyat 2,972]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybTfjHMPc3Y

no.

[ariking777 940]

Ok you sound like you don't really understand inferential statistics.

 

Yes, I can't prove that the probability is not 1/7000. But I can show, with 99% certainty, that it is not 1/7000. And that is what I am after.

(About the first line - I'm actually more with Calculus, so could be I screwed something there :D)

 

You can't be sure of something when you have 99% certainty. So even if you show that with 99% percent certainty, you cannot confront Semyon Kirov with this stuff since he can say that this 1 percent is all that matters...

[greyat 2,972]

(About the first line - I'm actually more with Calculus, so could be I screwed something there :D)

 

You can't be sure of something when you have 99% certainty. So even if you show that with 99% percent certainty, you cannot confront Semyon Kirov with this stuff since he can say that this 1 percent is all that matters...

I'm not after confronting Mr. Kirov with this. This is just to benefit public knowledge. After, most of the public will be willing to accept it if we are 99% certain that it is not 1/7000.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

To get back on topic:

I have no screenshots, but here are a few battles:

Polygon CP, 1.5k fund, 0 golds

Kungur CTF, 5k fund, 1 gold (ask @lukey0)

Polygon DM, 1.2k fund, 0 golds.

Edited July 10, 2015 by greyat

[ariking777 940]

I'm not after confronting Mr. Kirov with this. This is just to benefit public knowledge. After, most of the public will be willing to accept it if we are 99% certain that it is not 1/7000.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

To get back on topic:

I have no screenshots, but here are a few battles:

Polygon CP, 1.5k fund, 0 golds

Kungur CTF, 5k fund, 1 gold (ask @lukey0)

Polygon DM, 1.2k fund, 0 golds.

I rest my case :D