Gold Box Theory!

[Cyborg 3,189]

I read it on a lot of threads that the chance of drop is 1/7000. so I think if we are able to increase the fund more at once then chances should increase too! For example if a 10 guy kill other 10 guys together at the same moment and someone captures a flag at the same time too then the chances should become 15/7000. And if gold drops with 1/7000 then 15/7000 should be even better...

[thunderousrailgunner 1,934]

Wait 7000 ? I Thought it was 1 / 10000  :o

[Maf 32,300]

Firstly you need to keep in mind that the chance of a gold box dropping was reduced from 1/7000 to 1/10000 after crystal boxes were removed from the game (last year). This resulted in an insignificant increase of gold box drop rate, so the developers decided to not make the change official until a few weeks ago.

 

Second, you seem to have gotten confused with the probability. 1/10000 (or 1/7000) means that for every crystal added to the battle fund there is a 1/10000 chance (which is equivalent to 0.01%) of a gold box dropping. So if I kill a player and the fund increases by 9 crystals, it means that the chance of a gold box dropping in that moment is (1/10000*9=) 9/10000 or 0.09%.

 

Third, your theory. Yes, you are correct that there is a higher chance of a gold box dropping when you kill 10 players + capture a flag compared to killing just one player. However, it all depends on the rate at which the fund is increasing. Let's say you kill 10 players and capture a flag at once, thus adding 150 crystals do the fund. Then you set it all up again in 3 minutes and repeat the process, adding another 150 crystals. The fund growth rate will be 150 per 3 minutes, or 50 cry/min.

Then let's compare that to a normal battle on Dusseldorf DM, where there is a player being killed every 5 seconds. That means 12 players killed every minute and 12*9 = 108 crystals added to the fund per minute (108 cry/min). 108 is more than double of 50, so in a normal DM like that there will be more gold boxes dropping, despite the fact that they are only adding 9 crystals to the fund per minute and not 150, like in your setup. This is why Wasp+Firebird battles are so popular - Wasp dies quickly resulting in many deaths every minute and a really high fund growth rate.

 

Fourth - you need to keep in mind that your suggestion is a lot like power leveling. Purposefully setting up deaths like that over and over just to get a gold box quickly is against the rules, so if I were you, I would avoid "testing" your theory for prolonged periods of time, otherwise you may get punished.

[Cyborg 3,189]

Firstly you need to keep in mind that the chance of a gold box dropping was reduced from 1/7000 to 1/10000 after crystal boxes were removed from the game (last year). This resulted in an insignificant increase of gold box drop rate, so the developers decided to not make the change official until a few weeks ago.

 

Second, you seem to have gotten confused with the probability. 1/10000 (or 1/7000) means that for every crystal added to the battle fund there is a 1/10000 chance (which is equivalent to 0.01%) of a gold box dropping. So if I kill a player and the fund increases by 9 crystals, it means that the chance of a gold box dropping in that moment is (1/10000*9=) 9/10000 or 0.09%.

 

Third, your theory. Yes, you are correct that there is a higher chance of a gold box dropping when you kill 10 players + capture a flag compared to killing just one player. However, it all depends on the rate at which the fund is increasing. Let's say you kill 10 players and capture a flag at once, thus adding 150 crystals do the fund. Then you set it all up again in 3 minutes and repeat the process, adding another 150 crystals. The fund growth rate will be 150 per 3 minutes, or 50 cry/min.

Then let's compare that to a normal battle on Dusseldorf DM, where there is a player being killed every 5 seconds. That means 12 players killed every minute and 12*9 = 108 crystals added to the fund per minute (108 cry/min). 108 is more than double of 50, so in a normal DM like that there will be more gold boxes dropping, despite the fact that they are only adding 9 crystals to the fund per minute and not 150, like in your setup. This is why Wasp+Firebird battles are so popular - Wasp dies quickly resulting in many deaths every minute and a really high fund growth rate.

 

Fourth - you need to keep in mind that your suggestion is a lot like power leveling. Purposefully setting up deaths like that over and over just to get a gold box quickly is against the rules, so if I were you, I would avoid "testing" your theory for prolonged periods of time, otherwise you may get punished.

That somehow means that if a polygon dm is going on in a full swing and my theory comes to it there are 40% chances of a drop. However i wont test it out anymore because i respect the rules and your fourth point.

[Maf 32,300]

 40% chances of a drop.

Needs more details. In what situation? Ranks, time limit, amount of deaths per minute, number of players...

[creeperskelly 1,281]

Also people assume that just because gold dropped a minute ago that it can't happen 2 seconds from now.

 

I really tire of explaining to players how one event is unrelated to the next one.

 

It's like people picking lottery numbers and when 1-2-3-4-5-6 comes up they think it will never happen again.

[Cyborg 3,189]

Needs more details. In what situation? Ranks, time limit, amount of deaths per minute, number of players...

 

M not that good in maths but i think deathmatch major to gissimo 20 players and 164 deaths per minute 1 hour. this criteria should stand somewhere about more chances with my theory

[Maf 32,300]

164 deaths per minute

 

That's almost 3 deaths per second. A bit much, don't you think?

 

Anyway, a typical top-rank 1 hour DM match with 20 players will result in around 15000 crystals of fund, so that's about an 80% chance of a Gold dropping.

[dilsharox 2,395]

can you prove this theory of yours?

[Cyborg 3,189]

That's almost 3 deaths per second. A bit much, don't you think?

 

Anyway, a typical top-rank 1 hour DM match with 20 players will result in around 15000 crystals of fund, so that's about an 80% chance of a Gold dropping.

And that's a lot isn't it? But i really wanna try this out once because trail and error can only make  me satisfied.

 

can you prove this theory of yours?

Ill try to do it wih my friends and inform you  ;)

Edited September 18, 2015 by Cyborg

[GHOST68INVINCIBLE 152]

I am out of words. :wacko:

[ronen93 46]

Firstly you need to keep in mind that the chance of a gold box dropping was reduced from 1/7000 to 1/10000 after crystal boxes were removed from the game (last year). This resulted in an insignificant increase of gold box drop rate, so the developers decided to not make the change official until a few weeks ago.

 

Second, you seem to have gotten confused with the probability. 1/10000 (or 1/7000) means that for every crystal added to the battle fund there is a 1/10000 chance (which is equivalent to 0.01%) of a gold box dropping. So if I kill a player and the fund increases by 9 crystals, it means that the chance of a gold box dropping in that moment is (1/10000*9=) 9/10000 or 0.09%.

Isn't 1/10000 supposed to be 0.0001%?? I have no idea how you got to 0.01%. I may not be a math master here.

However, I noticed that goldbox dropping seems more rarer now, then I read this which I understood better. On other the hand, there are many players saying "gold box please admin".  -_-  <_<

[Maf 32,300]

Isn't 1/10000 supposed to be 0.0001%?? I have no idea how you got to 0.01%. 

1/10000 = 1 divided by 10000 = 0.0001

To convert a decimal to percentage you multiply it by 100 and add a % sign, hence 0.0001 x 100% = 0.01%

[Cyborg 3,189]

Isn't 1/10000 supposed to be 0.0001%?? I have no idea how you got to 0.01%. I may not be a math master here.

However, I noticed that goldbox dropping seems more rarer now, then I read this which I understood better. On other the hand, there are many players saying "gold box please admin".  -_-  <_<

I face those annoying players too!! and it feels like reporting them. and 0.0001 is the answer of 1/10000 but when u get it in percentage i multiply it by 100 so it becomes 0.01%.

[tanker538N 394]

Firstly you need to keep in mind that the chance of a gold box dropping was reduced from 1/7000 to 1/10000 after crystal boxes were removed from the game (last year). This resulted in an insignificant increase of gold box drop rate, so the developers decided to not make the change official until a few weeks ago.

 

Second, you seem to have gotten confused with the probability. 1/10000 (or 1/7000) means that for every crystal added to the battle fund there is a 1/10000 chance (which is equivalent to 0.01%) of a gold box dropping. So if I kill a player and the fund increases by 9 crystals, it means that the chance of a gold box dropping in that moment is (1/10000*9=) 9/10000 or 0.09%.

 

Third, your theory. Yes, you are correct that there is a higher chance of a gold box dropping when you kill 10 players + capture a flag compared to killing just one player. However, it all depends on the rate at which the fund is increasing. Let's say you kill 10 players and capture a flag at once, thus adding 150 crystals do the fund. Then you set it all up again in 3 minutes and repeat the process, adding another 150 crystals. The fund growth rate will be 150 per 3 minutes, or 50 cry/min.

Then let's compare that to a normal battle on Dusseldorf DM, where there is a player being killed every 5 seconds. That means 12 players killed every minute and 12*9 = 108 crystals added to the fund per minute (108 cry/min). 108 is more than double of 50, so in a normal DM like that there will be more gold boxes dropping, despite the fact that they are only adding 9 crystals to the fund per minute and not 150, like in your setup. This is why Wasp+Firebird battles are so popular - Wasp dies quickly resulting in many deaths every minute and a really high fund growth rate.

 

Fourth - you need to keep in mind that your suggestion is a lot like power leveling. Purposefully setting up deaths like that over and over just to get a gold box quickly is against the rules, so if I were you, I would avoid "testing" your theory for prolonged periods of time, otherwise you may get punished.

That's enough reading for a day :l

[marc.jp_44 20,837]

Isn't 1/10000 supposed to be 0.0001%?? I have no idea how you got to 0.01%. I may not be a math master here.

However, I noticed that goldbox dropping seems more rarer now, then I read this which I understood better. On other the hand, there are many players saying "gold box please admin".  -_-  <_<

Yeah I agree. When I was like Master Corporal rank, I used to play 15 min Brest battles with funds of only 3000 odd but still every 2 battles there would be a minimum of One Gold Box dropped. Now, I play Poly CP battles which have funds of about 7000 yet it took me 5 rounds for one Gold to Drop and it was 30 min battles. It's true, now even in Brest battles, Gold dropping is very rare. I play Brest a lot but when I was like Master Corporal, I used to be a Shaft and Titan (yea I was a noob with no skills sniper) so I could never be bothered going for a Gold Box. Then I realised there were less Golds dropping, which was annoying because I had a great Gold Hunting combo when I got to WO2 - Rail+Hornet but Gold never dropped. I only ever got one Gold Box in my life and it was on a 15 minute Brest battle and no one saw it and I was lucky to get Nitro and I managed to get the Gold like 1 second before someone else took it and he shot me with his noob Rico M1 for the rest of the battle. But dude, ur kinda wrong with the Maths part.

[Cyborg 3,189]

Yeah I agree. When I was like Master Corporal rank, I used to play 15 min Brest battles with funds of only 3000 odd but still every 2 battles there would be a minimum of One Gold Box dropped. Now, I play Poly CP battles which have funds of about 7000 yet it took me 5 rounds for one Gold to Drop and it was 30 min battles. It's true, now even in Brest battles, Gold dropping is very rare. I play Brest a lot but when I was like Master Corporal, I used to be a Shaft and Titan (yea I was a noob with no skills sniper) so I could never be bothered going for a Gold Box. Then I realised there were less Golds dropping, which was annoying because I had a great Gold Hunting combo when I got to WO2 - Rail+Hornet but Gold never dropped. I only ever got one Gold Box in my life and it was on a 15 minute Brest battle and no one saw it and I was lucky to get Nitro and I managed to get the Gold like 1 second before someone else took it and he shot me with his noob Rico M1 for the rest of the battle. But dude, ur kinda wrong with the Maths part.

Dude see you're mistaken again. BATTLE FUND DOESN'T MATTER IN GOLDS what matters is the rate of increasing rest is upon luck. It might be that some polygon cp gets 20k battle fund(talking about my rank battles) but it goes very slowly but in arena cp battle fund is like 1 or 2 k but increasing very very fast chances are it will drop in arena. I hope u understand what i am telling. ;) 

[marc.jp_44 20,837]

Dude see you're mistaken again. BATTLE FUND DOESN'T MATTER IN GOLDS what matters is the rate of increasing rest is upon luck. It might be that some polygon cp gets 20k battle fund(talking about my rank battles) but it goes very slowly but in arena cp battle fund is like 1 or 2 k but increasing very very fast chances are it will drop in arena. I hope u understand what i am telling. ;) 

Thanks for the explanation! Sometimes I get bored hear so I like to learn more about the game. Thanks for explaining it! IMO; Tanki should make it fair for all rank ranges to get Gold by lowering the fraction. Currently, all ranks have the probability of Gold dropping is 1 crystal has a 1 in 10000 chance. Since high ranked battles have higher funds, the fraction should be higher. Lower ranked battles have low funds so the fraction should be lower. It's kinda fair imo. Tanki won't consider it but I like to share my idea anyways

[Cyborg 3,189]

Thanks for the explanation! Sometimes I get bored hear so I like to learn more about the game. Thanks for explaining it! IMO; Tanki should make it fair for all rank ranges to get Gold by lowering the fraction. Currently, all ranks have the probability of Gold dropping is 1 crystal has a 1 in 10000 chance. Since high ranked battles have higher funds, the fraction should be higher. Lower ranked battles have low funds so the fraction should be lower. It's kinda fair imo. Tanki won't consider it but I like to share my idea anyways

I think you mean high rank battles can increase their fund faster and low rankers can't. I agree but tanki has its own rules  :( I think the earlier system of a specified battle fund for dropping of gold was better ten we wouldn't have to face mult's also  :wacko:

[Maf 32,300]

 the earlier system of a specified battle fund for dropping of gold was better then we wouldn't have to face mult's also

Then you would have to deal with players, who enter battles at the gold box fund for 5 minutes, wait for the gold to drop, take it because of their superior equipment and leave to go find a new gold box battle. Absolutely no benefit for gameplay and newbies will have almost no chance at getting the gold box.

[wishness 10]

Lol, my main: ronen93 got chat banned XD

 

1/10000 = 1 divided by 10000 = 0.0001

To convert a decimal to percentage you multiply it by 100 and add a % sign, hence 0.0001 x 100% = 0.01%

 

 

I face those annoying players too!! and it feels like reporting them. and 0.0001 is the answer of 1/10000 but when u get it in percentage i multiply it by 100 so it becomes 0.01%.

Thanks for clear up, I cant believe how I had forgotten to multiply it by 100! 

Yes, glad you agreed! I wish dev could give them message saying "admin does not drop gb under any condition" or even make vlog about it.

[Cyborg 3,189]

Lol, my main: ronen93 got chat banned XD

 

 

 

Thanks for clear up, I cant believe how I had forgotten to multiply it by 100! 

Yes, glad you agreed! I wish dev could give them message saying "admin does not drop gb under any condition" or even make vlog about it.

Or maybe there was an option to ban those players  when voted by team members without needing a mod xD

[Cyborg 3,189]

Then you would have to deal with players, who enter battles at the gold box fund for 5 minutes, wait for the gold to drop, take it because of their superior equipment and leave to go find a new gold box battle. Absolutely no benefit for gameplay and newbies will have almost no chance at getting the gold box.

Then maybe develop a system which doesn't allow players to enter wen gold is about to drop.Then who have fought hard will only stand a chance.

[toanuparu_GT 7]

are more or less golds dropping. it feels like less, and im pretty sure it is.

[Maf 32,300]

are more or less golds dropping. it feels like less, and im pretty sure it is.

After crystals were removed and GB probability was reduced to 1/10000, there was a slight increase in number of gold boxes. However it wasn't significant, so no official news mentioned it.