Containers Mission Rewards - Results & Discussion

[CooperO 7,956]

today on this account I  got two missions with  - 5 gold boxs and a 125 mines , which I still can't understand why this account only gets 5 golds and yet my Evil-Woman gets 10 golds per missions ( when I get them )

It all depends on chance. A container with 5 gold boxes is an 'uncommon' one, while a container with 10 gold boxes is a 'rare' one. The chance to get a container with 5 golds is bigger, but it's still rather random which rewards you get from containers. It's merely a coincidence that you've only received 5 golds on one account and only 10 on another.

[Sergeant808 81]

Following prime directive to post results to one thread...

 

125 Speed Boosts, 3500 crystals, 3500 crystals... I'll take it. Bucks > space filling boxes I can't use except as filler. (Hello? Mammoth? Twice nuttin' is still nuttin...)

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Thanks everyone. I've gathered all the new data. We are well over 800 now. Next report at our first major milestone, 1000 openings!! yay-y-y-y-y

 

For the first week I got no paints. Yay-y-y-y-y. But I did get a railcar full of Gold Boxes. 3x5 and 1x10. Meh-h-h-h-h. One thing about Gold Boxes though. If I ran a Clan I would use these GBs as a way to reward deserving Clan members or to give financial support to needy members.  A good team-based Clan could pool these Container GBs and create a nice little internal support / morale system. Just an idea I wanted to get out there.

 

I did not open LittleWillie's Containers. I am keeping them to be opened before the WAR event breaks out. I figure if I have to get 200 kil;s, maybe I will get lucky and win some PA days at the same time. :)

[G.E.A.R.S 59]

Nope. Just luck (depending on what your aim is). I collect my rewards from weekly chain and containers on my alt on saturdays as well, and I've had all kinds of rewards since the weekly chain update, 10k cry, Graffiti paint, 5 gold boxes, 3 days of premium, 250 of all supplies. Individual days shouldn't affect probabilities of getting a certain reward.

Ok the . I guess i waas lucky lol got this week  

125 DD x2 and then 10k cry not lucky anymore. I was getting blue containers with25k in them EVERY week i also got Moss paint one week but only paint so far. XD. cant wait till next week!

[Maf 32,302]

 

 

 

 

 

I actually did record the specific paint names at first, but after a while decided that it's pointless information, since I don't think it really matters. There weren't any strange patterns with the paints anyway, I think only one or two appeared more than once. You don't even include specific paint names in your reports, so why does it matter?

 

As for the validity of the information, I don't see how the YT data is any less reliable than what you get here. After all, anyone can just come and lie that they got much better rewards than they really did (to make others jealous, perhaps). As for the youtube data - there's literal video evidence of the openings, so there's no way it could have been faked. I can even give you the links to the videos I used. The only reason why the YT data might be a bit inaccurate is that someone is more likely to upload the video of their container opening if they got good stuff from it, so it's possible that YT data will show more epic and legendary rewards than normal.

 

Personally, I'd rather see you merge the data since any potential errors won't make THAT much of a difference. You said it yourself - we're not NASA, so an error in our calculations won't result in some catastrophic failure of a spacecraft. But since you're experienced with this kind of stuff, I'll leave the decision up to you.

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Maf I have spent years working professionally as an experimentalist and data analyst. Mixing data sets just goes against my grain. As it does with anyone with my training.

 

Is there any difference between YT data sampling and out forum contributor method?  I do not know. Maybe some of those vids were of the infamous Black Rain drops. Sometime YT posters do not post original material but rather montages of clips they liked from other posters... so some data might be recorded twice. Maybe YT posters tend to post results they enjoyed but not less happy openings? That is why I ask contributors here to post every week.

 

I do not know.  But there are differences in results that seem to exceed expected error. So I found a better use for the data.

 

I do not report paint names but I do record them.  When / if there are maybe 200 Paints reported I will do a comparison of found paints versus the cost of those found paints. I do not blame you for not recording paint names. But I cannot use those data for that part of the project.

 

Collecting a 2nd data set allowed me to demonstrate to the readers here that diifferent percentage results will still give better mission rewards than the 3x system.  Some comments have been on the lines of "well what if my luck isn't as good as the project results?" Because of all your work readers were able to actually SEE the effects. This is another way to test the reliability of our project.

 

That 2nd data set also caused me to re-work my spreadsheet. Now I can compare any two data sets with ease.  Next report we will have about the same number of reps before the new paints were added and afterwards. I will break down our results before and after. Did TO also change the odds when they added the paints? If they made large changes we might detect them.

 

Treating the YT data the way I did obtained more value from your work than simply merging the data. I appreciate the time you spent to help the project.  

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Maf delivered us up another massive YT data scavange. The amount of work that took amazes. So thanks again Maf.  ^_^  Next report I'll do more comparison stuff.

 

I wanted to post a word about this upcoming War. This is a chance for all of you to earn a payback for your time invested. Pay attention to this War event even if you aren't much interested. This is the reason:

 

There will be certain times when, if you register 200+ kills you will get from 13 to as many as 26 Containers, just for that one-time 200+ kills effort.

 

The details of how War works is too much for this thread. But that is the bottom line. If you know exactly when to "play War"  in just just one turn you will get at least 13 Containers. Contributors here know how much that's worth. A lot more than four ordinary "kill 50 enemy tanks" missions. 

 

Not every War turn will pay that well. But certain ones will. Or maybe just a certain one.

 

Food for thought. With luck some contributors will be contributing a lot more mid-March. :)

[Ralphas 56]

Good job :) It might help for new people.

[Commander_Rose 327]

Amazing Rewards this week.

 

125 Repairs

 

125 Repairs

 

10k crystals

 

10k crystals

Edited February 16, 2018 by Commander_Rose

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Another tip for the contributors. I am saving my Containers from this week to be used during the War next week. There's a good chance to get a 3 day PA right before the 200 kills day.  If you are not going to War each turn, you can save them or those key turns mentioned in the post a little above this.

[Ralphas 56]

Amazing Rewards this week.

 

125 Repairs

 

125 Repairs

 

10k crystals

 

10k crystals

Wow, you got so lucky!  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:

[Commander_Rose 327]

Wow, you got so lucky!  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:

I know.  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:

[Commander_Rose 327]

So many pages... make one and stick to it.

[Ralphas 56]

So many pages... make one and stick to it.

What do you mean?  People are discussing here.

[MJROCKS05 428]

Could you provide a more clear picture of the weekly net value graph, its hard to see the numbers are indicators even with zoom.

Btw could you explain me a bit more about what you meant by "a conservative valuation system" and what all assumptions have you made in regards to it?

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Could you provide a more clear picture of the weekly net value graph, its hard to see the numbers are indicators even with zoom.

Btw could you explain me a bit more about what you meant by "a conservative valuation system" and what all assumptions have you made in regards to it?

Sure.

 

If you look at report 4 or 5 you will see a table in one of the spoilers. That table lists the exact numbers you see on the overall value graph. Report 6 was getting long so I omitted them to compate the YT data set instead..

 

But the numbers changed very little from report 5. I'll put the chrt back in report 7 due soon.

 

For conservative value I mean the following:

 

I assume you do missions every day so you would ordinarily average an income of 500 Cry from the battle fund while you play. But hen you win a container PA that 500 is doubled. Or in other words 1 day of the Pa is worth +500 Cry compared to no PA. But a player could easily decide to play more on PA days and gain more than the 500 bonus Cry we assume.

 

I assume you drop any GBs you get in normal game play and you catch them with equal chance as everyone else. So assuming a 10 vs 10 team game or 20 tank DM that is a 5% chance. Our calcs value each GB from a container worth 50 Cry. But you could use those PA days to make a private battle to drop  all those GBs to yourself. That's 1,000 Cry not the 50 we assume.

 

Lastly I value the Supplies at 30 Cry and 90 for RKs. I assume players who buy supplies from the garage will do so on 50% sale, mostly. Or through buying the 100 each kits also mostly on sale,  But I assume some times players will have to play full price, so I use 40% average discount,  If you never ever buy single Supplies in the Garage (maybe do buy Supply kits) your personal valuation will be higher.

 

So if you get the most out of PA days even Legends do better than break even. If you grind PA days you come out well ahead. If you never have to buy Garage supplies even Legends get a major income boost.

 

EVERYONE average more cash, remember. But high ranks get fewer Supplies. We assume the high ranks buy enough Supplies out of the extra money to maintain the old 3x levels.  That is how the value comparison graph works. But some players will not miss the net loss in Supplies compared to 3x. They will just pocket the extra Cry each week.

 

Atop all that are Paints valued as you see them.

Edited February 19, 2018 by LittleWillie

[eSport 486]

On my alt

@2sock

125 speeds

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Announcement: OK last time I suggested we reduce to one thread.  But most ppl still use the data thread to submit. So be it! I know the forum mods would prefer one thread. But ppl have grown used to two threads so let's just keep ding that.  

 

Also using tho threads means that when this project is done the Reports part can be moved to the Resources section of the Forum for future reference. :)

 

OK enough of that . . .

 

Project Report 07

 

Title Page

 

Report is presented in five screenshots each tucked under their own Spoiler. Fire away with questions.

 

 

Report Summary

 

 

 

 

 

Category Rates

 

 

 

 

Crystals & RK Charts

 

 

 

 

Supplies & Valuation Charts

 

 

 

 

Valuation Chart Data Tables

 

 

Edited March 20, 2019 by CooperO
Fixed images.

[brohomie 45]

Am i supposed to post what my container rewards were here?

[DragonOfStorms 2,706]

Am i supposed to post what my container rewards were here?

Yes, please do.

[Heles 9,220]

Am i supposed to post what my container rewards were here?

You can post it here 

Container Project to Learn Reward Probabilities

[Trail 2]

I am doing 'weekly chain' quite constantly. 10 days ago i opend 5 containers and forgott the number of the given supplies. But one container showed the paint 'GOLD STAR'.

Since I never spended money for cryssis (freetoplay), I didn't used this paint yet, I somehow feel so overdressed... :D

[emrakul 7,801]

Please, if you can, provide the total % for each possible reward in form of some graph. Basically, I just want to see what is how rare and from the table I can't see a lot :P You can merge common supplies rewards to make it more comprendious, since they are basically the same thing. Thanks

[C.O.N.Q.U.E.R.O.R 3,845]

Please, if you can, provide the total % for each possible reward in form of some graph. Basically, I just want to see what is how rare and from the table I can't see a lot :P You can merge common supplies rewards to make it more comprendious, since they are basically the same thing. Thanks

Yes please :P It's too much work to comprehend the new format, I liked the percentages. 

[LittleWillie 3,199]

I am not sure what you all want but it is not a big deal to add different graph types.  I'll re-read and try to do what's asked.

 

 

----

 

We have reached the point where we have enough data points that we can start to call our results pretty reliable. So some of the early report types are probably past their usefullness

 

I have not been in a hurry to post the new report because the results are not shifting much.

 

The big work (tedious) I have been putting off is going back to Day one and adding in who posted which data.  (More current data is already recorded that way.) When that is done I will be able to let us say 'tighten up' our main data set.  

 

The best data comes from those people who report every week. Even the 2 mines and a speed boost weeks.  But some players post only when they get exciting results. The nice thing about reaching this level of data is we can afford to be 'picky'.

 

In technical terms we are reducing our sampling error. But as it takes a lot of squinting and triple-checking I have been putting it off.

Edited March 17, 2018 by LittleWillie