Magnum Probabilities

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

The above says it all, I decided to compute the damage Magnum would cause if the damage distrbution were to be normal. Please correct me if I'm wrong

 

Mean calculations: I used the formula "((n)(n+1))/2" and plugged in 2330 for n first, then 1160, and then subtracted it and divided by 1200 to get a mean damage of 1745.5.

 

Standard deviation calculations: Since every amount of damage between 1160 and 2330 is repeated only once, the Standard deviation is + 338.03845935041176 damage points. (Curtsy of a a league of legends player who bothered counting from 1-10000 and 2 online standard deviation calculators)

 

thus, if a normal distribution curve is in fact followed, the graph would look like this:

 

https://imgur.com/a/WIg9dXN

 

So what does this mean for players? (the above in a nutshell).

 

• 50% of the time, Magnum will deal less than or equal to 1745.5 damage
• 50% of the time, Magnum will deal above or equal to 1745.5 damage
• 25% of the time, Magnum will deal 1407.462 damage or less
• 75% of the time, Magnum will deal 2083.538 damage or less
• 68% of the time, Magnum will deal will be between 1407.462 and 2083.538
• 95% of the time, Magnum will deal between 1069.423 and 2330 damage
• 100% of the time, Magnum will deal between 1160 and 2330 damage 

Please note that I may have made a mistake in these probabilities and as such would appreciate it if someone would care to help me out. The values above are if, and only if, the distribution of Magnum's damage is normal and also double damage is not used. These probabilities are based on direct landed hits and don't take into account splash damage. Thank you to cjlkajdsaldjaskjdasd for pointing out the error in my calculations, I have since rectified it. IF ANYONE SEES ANY MISCALCULATIONS, PLEASE POST THEM HERE.

Edited May 3, 2018 by LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH

[thunderousrailgunner 1,934]

The depicted values are for Magnum M3 ? 

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

The depicted values are for Magnum M3 ? 

Magnum m4, however I can fit them to m0,m1,m2 and m3 too.

[Mustard 531]

Because this may not interest all players, try posting your calculations here.

 

Good mathematical skills too :)

[ThirdOnion 4,898]

You can never be sure if there is 100% chance for Magnum to deal 1160 - 2360 damage. Anything can happen.

The official damage statistic for Magnum M4 are 1160-2360. So yes, there is 100% chance.

[GuidoFawkes 2,361]

i completly flunked my maths as well as every subject so i think it would be nice if you could give me the following stats..

chances for magnum to 1 shot a light hull

chances for magnum to 2 shot a medium hull (cause it's either 2 or 3 shots)

chances for magnum to 3 shot a heavy hull (cause it's either 3 or 4 shots)

[ThirdOnion 4,898]

24.5% for light hull

89% to two shot a medium hull

9.7% to two shot heavy hull, 91% to three shot

 

These numbers are not 100% accurate.

[Pyre 3,485]

Smert people :o

[u812ic 1,629]

Smert people :o

I hate it when they do that. Get past 2 + 2 = 22 and I'm lost. 

[Pyre 3,485]

I hate it when they do that. Get past 2 + 2 = 22 and I'm lost. 

Whats the little thingy between the two 2s?

[u812ic 1,629]

Whats the little thingy between the two 2s?

I'm not sure. I saw it a few times and added it to look smart.

[cjlkajdsaldjaskjdasd 71]

The above says it all, I decided to compute the damage Magnum would cause if the damage distrbution were to be normal. Please correct me if I'm wrong

 

Mean calculations: I used the formula "((n)(n+1))/2" and plugged in 2360 for n first, then 1160, and then subtracted it and divided by 1200 to get a mean damage of 1760.5.

 

Standard deviation calculations: Since every amount of damage between 1160 and 2360 is repeated only once, the Standard deviation is + 346.69871647 damage points. (Curtsy of a a league of legends player who bothered counting from 1-10000 and 2 online standard deviation calculators)

 

thus, if a normal distribution curve is in fact followed, the graph would look like this:

 

https://imgur.com/gallery/OtcLTBD

 

So what does this mean for players? (the above in a nutshell).

 

• 50% of the time, Magnum will deal less than or equal to 1760.5 damage
• 50% of the time, Magnum will deal above or equal to 1760.5 damage
• 25% of the time, Magnum will deal 1413.801 damage or less
• 75% of the time, Magnum will deal 2107.99 damage or less
• 68% of the time, Magnum will deal will be between 1413.801 and 2107.99
• 95% of the time, Magnum will deal between 1067.3 and 2360 damage
• 100% of the time, Magnum will deal between 1160 and 2360 damage 

Please note that I may have made a mistake in these probabilities and as such would appreciate it if someone would care to help me out. The values above are if, and only if, the distribution of Magnum's damage is normal and also double damage is not used.

Well, to calculate the mean, you just do (1160 + 2330)/2 = 1745, as the normal distribution is perfectly symmetric about the mean.

 

Your standard deviation (S.D) calculation is also wrong.

 

For normal distribution, 

 

68% observations lie within 1 S.D of the mean.

95% observations lie within 2 S.D of the mean.

99.7% observations lie within 3 S.D of the mean.

 

So the entire span of 2330 - 1160 = 1170 is about 6 or 8 standard deviations, which means that a reasonably good confidence interval for SD is 146.25 to 195.

 

Now if mean=M, then probability that m4 magnum does a damage between H and L is PHI[ (H-M)/SD ] - PHI[ (L-M)/SD ], where PHI is the cumulative distribution function for the normal distribution, which can easily be looked up from tables or found online.

 

All your calculations seem to be wrong, but good job trying  :)

I like it when people use the knowledge they learnt in school / college and apply it in real life. That is the mark of an educated person.

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

Well, to calculate the mean, you just do (1160 + 2330)/2 = 1745, as the normal distribution is perfectly symmetric about the mean.

 

Your standard deviation (S.D) calculation is also wrong.

 

For normal distribution, 

 

68% observations lie within 1 S.D of the mean.

95% observations lie within 2 S.D of the mean.

99.7% observations lie within 3 S.D of the mean.

 

So the entire span of 2330 - 1160 = 1170 is about 6 or 8 standard deviations, which means that a reasonably good confidence interval for SD is 146.25 to 195.

 

Now if mean=M, then probability that m4 magnum does a damage between H and L is PHI[ (H-M)/SD ] - PHI[ (L-M)/SD ], where PHI is the cumulative distribution function for the normal distribution, which can easily be looked up from tables or found online.

 

All your calculations seem to be wrong, but good job trying  :)

I like it when people use the knowledge they learnt in school / college and apply it in real life. That is the mark of an educated person.

I see what I did. I messed up the numbers, I accidentally put 2360 as maximum instead of 2330. I will re-do it.

[GorgoBlesk 831]

So the Magnum uses the Gauss curve like Railgun. That is all I want to know xD. Good job.

 

Now the devs can lower the damage to 1100-1900 to nerf that freakingly OP gun.

[kaisdf 3,320]

But does the listed damage only count direct hits?

 

If a Magnum misses, the splash can do less than 1100 damage. Shouldn't that be taken into account?

[Crip 4,735]

Here are my probabilities.

 

Probability that Magnum is the most irritating and noob-friendly turret in the game = 100%

Probability that the Developers will fix Magnum unless we pay them = 0%

Probability that the Magnums will ever contribute to a team = 0%

Probability that Magnum is overpowered and is destroying favourite maps such as Noise and Silence = 100%

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

But does the listed damage only count direct hits?

 

If a Magnum misses, the splash can do less than 1100 damage. Shouldn't that be taken into account?

Well The above probabilities are if the Magnum hits. I'd count the probabilities for less than this much or that much  damage except there's around 2360 of them and then there's the whole issue of what would be the maximum at a certain range and the minimum for that same range.

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

Here are my probabilities.

 

Probability that Magnum is the most irritating and noob-friendly turret in the game = 100%

Probability that the Developers will fix Magnum unless we pay them = 0%

Probability that the Magnums will ever contribute to a team = 0%

Probability that Magnum is overpowered and is destroying favourite maps such as Noise and Silence = 100%

Not to be flaming, but Magnum isn't all that bad. I have it and have used it for well over 2 days of play time and still am not a pro with it (I'm averageish). The reason developers aren't so interested in fixing it is perhaps because the fix is buying protection modules. If that is a fix for you, I cannot say. Magnums do contribute to team but just not in the whole team-my way (healing, sacrificing themselves). 

 

Believe me, I used to think the same as you do about Magnum, then I bought it. Not even 6 months later, it's almost m4. That's how much I love it.

So the Magnum uses the Gauss curve like Railgun. That is all I want to know xD. Good job.

 

Now the devs can lower the damage to 1100-1900 to nerf that freakingly OP gun.

Oh no, That is my assumption when making this information, IT's not officially said to use or not use the normal distribution (what you call Gauss) curve.

[Crip 4,735]

Not to be flaming, but Magnum isn't all that bad. I have it and have used it for well over 2 days of play time and still am not a pro with it (I'm averageish). The reason developers aren't so interested in fixing it is perhaps because the fix is buying protection modules. If that is a fix for you, I cannot say. Magnums do contribute to team but just not in the whole team-my way (healing, sacrificing themselves). 

 

Believe me, I used to think the same as you do about Magnum, then I bought it. Not even 6 months later, it's almost m4. That's how much I love it.

If they provided us with some useful Magnum modules, then maybe you'd have a point. But the thing is, do I really have to spend 250k just for once turret? No, I shouldn't have to do that.

 

90% of the Magnums I've seen do not contribute. They mostly just sit at the back camping.

 

"And then you bought it" :D

 

It's kinda like the "If you can't beat them, then join them" saying. Magnum is overpowered, and think about all the damage it has done to once-fun maps such as Noise.

 

What frustrates me a lot is when players use it like Thunder. They go below 10 degrees on the firing angle and simply load up supplies and run around blasting people.

 

It's far too noob-friendly, especially with that colossal splash damage radius.

[ThirdOnion 4,898]

Oh no, That is my assumption when making this information, IT's not officially said to use or not use the normal distribution (what you call Gauss) curve.

It's a reasonable assumption. All other turrets with a damage range use the normal distribution, so logically Magnum should too.

[LOLKILLERTOTHEDEATH 1,921]

It's a reasonable assumption. All other turrets with a damage range use the normal distribution, so logically Magnum should too.

Alright then, so that should be fine