Is an automated or easier analysis of container rewards possible?

[r_Issimo2 1,495]

As you know LittleWillie was doing an analysis of container reward probabilities, but apparently he stopped doing the reports. It looks like it's tedious, to be collecting dozens of info from replies and doing the rest.

 

It first I though doing analysis was not needed because everyone will be getting the same rewards with likely the same probabilities. Now with more paints added to containers, I think we need to continue the analysis to see how and if the probabilities are changing and maybe devaluing container rewards if we take paints out of the equation.

 

I asked Nives a question about probabilities and he said he's unable to answer specifics about how the container system works.

 

Adding new paints does make the overall item pool bigger, so each individual paint is slightly less likely.

 

Unfortunately, I won't be able to provide the specifics of how the rewards are chosen per container step.

So my question is, can we do analysis easier, maybe even better and automated if possible?

[Boeing_787 1,455]

Somebody can make a program to take in the data and analyze it.

[r_Issimo2 1,495]

Somebody can make a program to take in the data and analyze it.

Yes, but we would need a volunteer to enter data and accurate data too. Maybe we are asking too much.

[medicguy 27]

A google form would allow responses to be gathered more easily. Somebody would have to analyze for troll responses, but it would be easier than manual entry for every value.

[cjlkajdsaldjaskjdasd 71]

even if we set up a website to where players contribute data, there is a high likelihood of some people posting false rewards there, which will mess up the probabilities.

 

this kind of stuff is best done individually.

 

maintain a spreadsheet of your container openings and wait for enough data to make inferences.

[cjlkajdsaldjaskjdasd 71]

I have noted 91 container rewards so far, across all my accounts.

 

 

 

The expected value (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) of a container turns out to be:

 

1) Roughly 3500 crystals (including 500 crystals in gold, 3000 cash), plus

2) 13 RK, 27 DA, 12 DD, 16 SB, 29 Mines, plus

3) 29% chance of a premium day (but the days come bundled together, 3 or 10)

 

It is clear that devs give much more mines and DA, than DD.

Reason could be to starve the rail and magnum users who keep one-shotting people with DD.

 

The crystals and supplies in the expected value calculations assume that you have collected the premium bonus everyday.

The results could be biased upward, because today I got 25k crystals in one account, and 5 gold boxes in another, actual crystal value could turn out to be a bit lower.

 

I will see if these probabilities stabilize over time

Edited May 23, 2018 by cjlkajdsaldjaskjdasd