event Tanks in Space

[Supremes 9]

tl:dr never do this event next cosmo day or im just quitting out of pure guilt for playing this game

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

[Ghost_Animators 4,802]

19 hours ago, DistantBeing said:

Roughly ~15% of all who completed the missions.

I don't think it's 15%. I haven't met a single person who reached Planet 2 without buying, even after asking about it in my community tab.

Why you wrote 73,29,19 in Step distribution frequencies?

https://ilovemesumcrisis.jv.workers.dev/?station=0&planet=2&energy=316

Like on what basis this calculation is done?

Edit:

Nvm, read your earlier post where you posted about this widget.

But I think the calculations are off.

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ghost_Animators

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

@Ghost_Animators

That was a mistake.

[Ghost_Animators 4,802]

2 hours ago, RIDDLER_8 said:

@Ghost_Animators

That was a mistake.

what was the mistake? 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ghost_Animators

[NuclearPakistanii 222]

24 minutes ago, Ghost_Animators said:

what mistake? 

which planet did u reach

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

I reached Planet 1.

[Ghost_Animators 4,802]

1 hour ago, NuclearPakistanii said:

which planet did u reach

Station 33 and my brother reached Station 34.

It's in middle of Planet 1 and 2.

 

[NuclearPakistanii 222]

1 minute ago, Ghost_Animators said:

Station 33 and my brother reached Station 34.

It's in middle of Planet 1 and 2.

 

i reached planet 1 on my both accounts

[DistantBeing 19]

3 hours ago, Ghost_Animators said:

But I think the calculations are off.

Well you're not wrong, and I highlighted some of this under the Caveats section. The algorithm assumes every station has some chance to step forward or backward. In reality, probability distribution of steps for blue station is something like { 1 step forward: 41, 2 steps forward: 12 }, and red station is { 1 step forward: 32, 2 steps forward: 17, 2 steps backward: 19 }. The algorithm combines these out to { 1 step forward: 73, 2 steps forward: 29, 2 steps backward: 19 } (what you see on the widget) for both blue and red stations. I don't have a proof but my intuition tells me with enough data about distribution the result should converge to actual probability.

Without clever programming techniques the algorithm for exact probability - which involves counting all possibilities one by one - is atleast exponential time (O(3^L), meaning with an increase in number of launches, calculation time increases exponentially). Or, you could just run a simulation - which is what I believe the devs did to estimate average energy needed to reach planets for pricing shop bundles. Either way thas no fuun. I tried to think of a polynomial time algorithm (like the current one is O(L³) ignoring nCr) but sadly the logic becomes too complex to handle. Hopefully I'll find a neat solution one day :)

In any case, I appreciate the effort that went into creating this mini-game, both design and theoretical side. Here to even more exciting mini-games in the future 

Edited April 30, 2021 by DistantBeing

[DistantBeing 19]

5 minutes ago, Unleash said:

Im not excited at all because i wont be playing any of their mini p2w games ever again. That description about event was biggest lie i ever read.

I would say with advertisements in general, keeping expectations low always leads to positive results 

Spoiler

Here is a random gif since I couldn't find something funny

 

[Ghost_Animators 4,802]

1 hour ago, DistantBeing said:

Spoiler

 

Well you're not wrong, and I highlighted some of this under the Caveats section. The algorithm assumes every station has some chance to step forward or backward. In reality, probability distribution of steps for blue station is something like { 1 step forward: 41, 2 steps forward: 12 }, and red station is { 1 step forward: 32, 2 steps forward: 17, 2 steps backward: 19 }. The algorithm combines these out to { 1 step forward: 73, 2 steps forward: 29, 2 steps backward: 19 } (what you see on the widget) for both blue and red stations. I don't have a proof but my intuition tells me with enough data about distribution the result should converge to actual probability.

Without clever programming techniques the algorithm for exact probability - which involves counting all possibilities one by one - is atleast exponential time (O(3^L), meaning with an increase in number of launches, calculation time increases exponentially). Or, you could just run a simulation - which is what I believe the devs did to estimate average energy needed to reach planets for pricing shop bundles. Either way thas no fuun. I tried to think of a polynomial time algorithm (like the current one is O(L³) ignoring nCr) but sadly the logic becomes too complex to handle. Hopefully I'll find a neat solution one day :)

In any case, I appreciate the effort that went into creating this mini-game, both design and theoretical side. Here to even more exciting mini-games in the future 

 

 

Yes, one way to get approximate answer would be to create a replication of the path of mini-game in an array (location of blue, red and planets)

Once the replication of order is created we can place probability (gained from raw data) on them.

Then a simulation can be run to calculate all possible outcomes (outcome being the final station reached) for the given number of energy.

Once we have all cases for a particular number of energy (316 energy in this case) we calculate the percentage of cases where the Planet 2 (or required Planet) was reached.

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ghost_Animators

[DistantBeing 19]

On 4/30/2021 at 1:01 AM, Ghost_Animators said:

Yes, one way to get approximate answer would be to create a replication of the path of mini-game in an array (location of blue, red and planets)

Once the replication of order is created we can place probability (gained from raw data) on them.

Then a simulation can be run to calculate all possible outcomes (last station that was reached) for the given number of energy.

Once we have all cases for a particular number of energy (316 energy in this case) we calculate the percentage of cases where the Planet 2 (or required Planet) was reached.

 

You'd have to run the simulation for an average of 2·2.5^L times (L is number of launches or energy/8) to ensure meaningful results, but if wanna experiment, here is the map of of minigame.

Edit
Because probability of least likely launch sequence is lower bounded by P^L, where P = 12 / ( 41 + 12 ) ≈ 1 / 4.42, you would actually need a multiple of 1 / P^L  = 4.42^L simulations to start getting precise results... it's safe to say devs had access to some mathematical literature instead for estimating probabilities 

Edited May 2, 2021 by DistantBeing

[Ghost_Animators 4,802]

6 hours ago, DistantBeing said:

Spoiler

You'd have to run the simulation for an average of 2·2.5^L times (L is number of launches or energy/8) to ensure meaningful results, but if wanna experiment, here is the map of of minigame.

Edit
Because probability of least likely sequence is lower bounded by 1 / P^L, where P = 12 / ( 41 + 12 ) ≈ 1 / 4.42, you would actually need a multiple of P^L = 4.42^L simulations to start getting precise results... it's safe to say devs had access to some mathematical literature instead for estimating probabilities 

 

I should have focused more when they taught permutations and combinations in school 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ghost_Animators

[belegec 1]

This is what i felt after this mission

https://youtu.be/qpsJqZkCHAk

 

[DistantBeing 19]

3 hours ago, Ghost_Animators said:

I should have focused more when they taught permutations and combinations in school 

Bruh I hated that topic in school 

Spoiler

but somewhere along the way I was like:

you aight but still confusing as duck

 

[fghjkl54 1,517]

so no one got rewards when the event finished and no one reached a planet as expected

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

I only got the rewards for reaching the first planet. I am one of those lucky players that have made it to the first planet. Since I am not a buyer of shop items, for me it was impossible to reach the second planet. I bet that even if I purchased 200 units of energy, I would not have been able to make it to the second planet because it is too far away. That means that I would need a supply of renewable energy or nuclear to be able to travel many lightyears into space to reach all the planets one by one and completing the challenge 100%. I bet that even buyers are disappointed by the fact that they found it impossible to complete this whole space event.

[The_Pakistani 16,768]

Was done because 1 step fwd and 4 step backwards

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

There's a song called one step forward and two steps back.

[LambSauce 1,884]

@RIDDLER_8 There's also a cool song called Never Gonna Give You Up. You should check it out 

[RIDDLER_8 5,552]

@AK2801

I have heard that song many times. Its a good song.

[alkyng 3,080]

Guys I don't have a problem cuz they didn't tell us that the event isn't a completable by F2P playing, it doesn't seem a logical for Marcus to say in the Topic "Hey, you F2P player, you wont complete the event". But what I completely disagree and also disgusted by it, they haven't left for us any detail or info to do our calculations to check if we can or not, they even above of that they promoted it as if everyone can complete it.

BTW, nicely, from the second day Marcus told us in an angry way that how we wish to complete the event and get the exotic Crisis without paying. Though he put the blame on us, but it was an important step to tell us quickly before spending more ages to finish the event.

For me, I stopped completely after I reached the first planet, because noway.

[wolverine848 13,097]

11 minutes ago, asem.harbi said:

For me, I stopped completely after I reached the first planet, because noway.

I didn't even start.  I knew they'd give us the shaft.   LOL.

[alkyng 3,080]

11 minutes ago, wolverine848 said:

I didn't even start.  I knew they'd give us the shaft.   LOL.

You are always wasting my time by making me googling every word/parable you say