Container Project to Learn Reward Probabilities

[emrakul 7,801]

 

 

These are since 31st december.
125DA, 3500, 125DA, 125DA, 3500, 125DA
10k
100ALL, 25k, 125DD, 3500
10k, moonwalker
10k, 125DD, 125DA, 3500
10 golds, 125 mines, 3500, 125 mines, 125SB
125RK, red urban, 125 mines
125 mines, lumberjack
3500, 125DA, 125 mines
125SB, 125DD, 125DA, 125DD, 125RK
10k, 125SB, 3500, 100ALL, 125DD, 3500, 125RK, 100ALL

 

 

That's all from me.

[Heles 9,220]

this is what i received

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nicola_M 1,563]

3,500 crystals

10,000 crystals

Retina paint (Epic)

Edited January 15, 2018 by Nicola_M

[eSport 486]

125 double damages, 125 double armours, electra paint (garage)

[CabbageRoll 3,018]

[Skills.n.Girls 767]

125 mines, 3.5k crys, 10k crys last containers from the mission.

[tobias.tichy 119]

125 DD

10.000 crystals

10.000 crystals

That is my containers reward  from my missions chain

[Viking4s 10,791]

125x SB, 125x DA, 125x M

125x M, 125x DA, 3.5k 

125x  SB, 125x DA, 25k 

[Hex 11,520]

x125 RK, x125 DA, Arachnid Paint (Shop), 10 000 Crystals, x125 SU, x125 Mines, x100 ALL

[iMoneyMaker 4,500]

 

  

 

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Second Report.    Containers recorded = 201

 

This is still a low sample size. e.g. Contributors have not yet reported a 10 day PA.  Some percentages are starting to sort out. But many still contain significant error,

 

I changed the organization a little. Garage Paints are listed as Rare. But we have had many more Garage paints reported than the other Rare items. I am starting to think not all items within a category all have the same odds.

 

At any rate, I now list the Paints all together as their own category.

 

Let's keep going. One week into this project we are already at 20% of the minimum goal of 1,000 openings, :)

 

---

 

Common Rewards = 54.2% of all rewards

 

3.5k Cry          12.4%

 

125 DA            10.9%

 

125 DD           11.9%

 

125 SU             8.5%

 

125 Mines       10.4%

 

Uncommon Rewards = 31.8% of all rewards

 

10k Cry          12.9%

 

125 RK            6.0%

 

100 Each         5.5%

 

3 Day PA         3.0%

 

5 GB                4.5%

 

Rare Rewards           = 5.0% of all rewards

 

25k Cry           2.5%

 

250 Each        0.5%

 

10 Day PA      0.0%

 

10 GB             2.0%

 

Paint Rewards         = 9.0% of all rewards

 

Garage          5.0%

 

Shop             3.0%

 

Premium       0.0%

 

Legendary     1.0%

 

Three Valuation Systems

 

Note I made a tiny change to the low value model. I assume you will catch one GB out of every 20 you drop. So ech GB is valued at 50 Cry.

 

Low Value: Basic Supplies =12.5, RK = 37.5,  100 Ea Kit = 8.750, 1 Day PA = 2.5k + Supplies value = 3,113, GB = 50, Paints = 0

 

Our 201 Containers averaged 4,171 Cry value in this system. 2,596 Cry in cash & 1,575 Cry value in supplies

 

--

 

Mid Value: Basic Supplies =25, RK = 75, 100 Ea Kit = 8.750, 1 Day PA = 3k + Supplies value = 4,225, GB = 500, Paints = 0

 

Our 201 Containers averaged 5,394 Cry value in this system. 2,831 Cry in cash & 2,563 Cry value in supplies

 

--

 

High Value: Basics = 50, RK = 150, 100 Ea Kit = 17,500, 1 Day PA = 3k + Supplies value = 5,450, GB = 1,000, Paints = 0

 

Our 201 Containers averaged 8,168 Cry value in this system. 3,042 Cry in cash & 5,126 Cry value in supplies

Edited January 16, 2018 by LittleWillie

[wolverine848 13,097]

I think the GB should be valued higher.  I'm not dropping that many in common battles...

[LittleWillie 3,199]

I think the GB should be valued higher.  I'm not dropping that many in common battles...

I used 3 different values up to the max of 1,000 Cry.  However I did change the report to a Cry value from a percentage. Now you can see exactly how much value in cash and supplies for all three estimations. Note the cash amount does not vary too much from high to low, but the supplies value does.

 

I also fixed an error in the HIGH estimation.

 

To ALL: Please if you have a comment like this send me a PM. Please try to keep this thread limited to nothing but opening results and the periodic reports.

Edited January 16, 2018 by LittleWillie

[X-Toxical 174]

125 speed boosts

125 double damage

125 double damage

:lol: :P :D :( :( :( :angry: :angry:

emoji spamming #NewTrend2018

Edited January 16, 2018 by X-Toxical

[Nine 693]

Opened on this acc.

 

10k

125DA

 

I get 3 more containers tomrrow so will post :)

 

3rd Page YAY

Edited January 16, 2018 by Nine

[So 1,636]

3500 crystals 

Sweater paint

250 of all supplies

[Commander_Rose 327]

125 Repair Kits, 125 Mines,10 Days Of Premium. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by Commander_Rose

[lukey0 27,543]

I'd rather keep to Containers opened in 2018 just to be sure we do not mix different probability tables. If you have data to Dec 24 you can list it but please tell me which containers date to 2017. I can note those entries in my recordds.

 

NOTHING from before Dec 24 though, please!

Ok, well during the Back Golds during the x10 drop rate (Dec 31) I received the following;

 

GoldBox

- 10 days of Premium 

- 125 Speed Boosts

- 125 DA

 

The.lukey0

- 10 000 crystals

[Commander_Rose 327]

My info is updated, check again for the edit.

[Amagi 1,728]

Got these a few days ago.

 

100 All Supplies

100 Double Power

100 Double Armor

[austen_pierce 1,948]

Can you post your current result in the OP?

 

This will save us from paving through this thread.

 

Thanks in advance.

[LIMITFULL 1,793]

Mission Chain done this week:
3500 crystals

10000 crystals

125 DD

[Nine 693]

Hi there! After you do the update little wille can you please post it on the original 1st post you made on page one as it will make it easier so we don’t have to look all over this topic for the info?

 

Thanks.

Btw 3 more containers for me after server restart so I’ll post here

 

Aslo here’s what I got from frosty weekend ( what I can remember I got 5 containers)

 

250each supply

 

2x 10k

 

1x 3.5k

 

125 DA

[MJROCKS05 428]

Friend's acct [Nick: MadeByGoogle]

 

125 speed boosts

125 double armour

chainmail paint

 

 = all crap

[Nine 693]

Friend's acct [Nick: MadeByGoogle]

 

125 speed boosts

125 double armour

chainmail paint

 

 = all crap

I have chanmail on this acc Lol and u get it