Container Project to Learn Reward Probabilities

[SporkZilla 1,775]

The only shot I want is Crimson for Ricochet, damn mama.

 

I've only got one shot effect so far, and it's that one...

 

(I'm going with container rewards having fixed odds regardless of rank, equipment levels, or how and when you open them until there's hard evidence that there isn't)

Edited January 19, 2019 by SporkZilla

[SporkZilla 1,775]

125 DD x 2

3500 Crystals x 3

 

(All for account #1, only scored 7000/10000 points this week, now on 149K XP and 620K crystals for that account)

[Shaftermath 185]

Ok, we've had mission container rewards in the game for a year now. I've recorded every one of the 836 containers I've opened, so here are some stats.

Overall Rarity: 61.2% common, 25.7% uncommon, 9.1% rare, 3.3% epic, 0.5% legendary, 0.1% exotic

Overall Type: 54.9% supplies, 26.1% crystals, 6.0% paint, 5.1% batteries, 3.9% gold, 3.1% premium, 0.7% shot effects, 0.1% XT skins

Overall Crystals: 2,390,000, comprising 1,885,000 from crystals containers, 300,000 from premium bonuses and 205,000 from gold boxes. This is an average of 2,859 per container

Overall Supplies: 83,535, comprising 78,375 from supplies containers and 5,160 from premium bonuses. This is an average of 99.9 supplies per container.


But the really interesting thing is how the rewards have changed over the year. There are two events when the Tanki Team significantly adjusted the container rewards. On 7th June 2018, they introduced drone batteries, XT skins and big crystal rewards in some epic, legendary and (new) exotic containers. On 30th October 2018, then introduced shot effects in epic containers. Not only that,but the stats indicate they adjusted the probability of getting other rewards too.

We'll call the period up to 6th June as Phase 1 (I opened 246 containers in that period). The period between 7th June and 29th October is Phase 2 (334 opened). Finally, the period since 30th October we'll call phase 3 (256 opened so far).

I can't post all the stats here, but the significant changes are these:

The probability of getting a crystals reward has increased from around 25% to around 30% in Phase 3

The probability of getting a premium reward was around 7% in phase 1, but it's between 1% and 2% ever since.

Surprisingly, the probability of getting a supplies reward has fallen from 59% in phases 1 and 2 to 46% in phase 3.

 

Even though they have added many new paints, there's no significant change in the probability of receiving a paint reward.


The current probabilities (phase 3) are: 46.1% supplies, 30.5% crystals, 7.4% batteries, 7.0% paint, 4.7% gold, 2.3% shot effects, 2.0% premium, 0.0% XT skins.


If there's any stats you'd like more detail on, please ask.

[Nicola_M 1,563]

1-21

 

3500 crystals

100 All Supplies

5 Gold Boxes

[TheCongoSpider 8,962]

100 Of All Supplies

3,500 Crystals

125 Double Damages

[lssimo 1,559]

Still nothing? I said pngs are not showing for probabilities, can you fix that?

 

Quoting you so you read this.

This project was abandoned long ago.

[AncientFire 1,894]

21-1

 

1. 125 DD.

2. Fire Of Valour paint.

3. 5 gold boxes set.

[Shaftermath 185]

*22-1:
Supplies - SB - 125 ,
Supplies - M - 125 ,
Supplies - DA - 125 ,
Gold Boxes - 5 ,
Paint - Garage (Grasslands)

22-1:
Paint - Garage (Tiger) ,
Batteries - 50

22-1:
Crystals - 25000 ,
Supplies - M - 125

21-1:
Crystals - 10000

19-1:
Supplies - DD - 125 ,
Gold Boxes - 5

18-1:
Crystals - 10000 ,
Supplies - M - 125

[Nicola_M 1,563]

1-23

 

125 DA

[TheCongoSpider 8,962]

3,500 crystals

 

125 Speed Boosts

[Shaftermath 185]

24-1:
Batteries - 50 ,
Supplies - DA - 125

23-1:
Supplies - M - 125

23-1:
Supplies - M - 125 ,
Supplies - M - 125 ,
Supplies - M - 125 ,
Crystals - 25000

23-1:
Gold Boxes - 5

23-1:
Crystals - 3500


Four 125 Mines in a row. <_<

Has anyone else had long sequences?

[AncientFire 1,894]

Four 125 Mines in a row. <_<

 

Has anyone else had long sequences?

I opened 10, and SIX times got speed boosts in a ROW.

[wolverine848 13,097]

 

 

24-1:

Batteries - 50 ,

Supplies - DA - 125

 

23-1:

Supplies - M - 125

 

23-1:

Supplies - M - 125 ,

Supplies - M - 125 ,

Supplies - M - 125 ,

Crystals - 25000

 

23-1:

Gold Boxes - 5

 

23-1:

Crystals - 3500

 

 

 

Four 125 Mines in a row. <_<

 

Has anyone else had long sequences?

No but... you are getting above average crystal rewards... I have not seen 25k container for over 2 months. Might be going on 3.

last 10k container was 2-4 weeks ago.

 

Not opening as many containers as you - but still...

[Shaftermath 185]

No but... you are getting above average crystal rewards... I have not seen 25k container for over 2 months. Might be going on 3.

last 10k container was 2-4 weeks ago.

 

Not opening as many containers as you - but still...

Yeah, these spells happen. I opened a 25k container on 20th Feb, then not again until 9th July - 249 containers later.

 

I can only wish you better luck.

[Nicola_M 1,563]

1-25 Weekly Mission, (week 2)

 

125 Speed Boosts

 

With the update nerfing containers, that's me finished with all missions.

Rewards not worth the effort now.

[wolverine848 13,097]

Yeah, these spells happen. I opened a 25k container on 20th Feb, then not again until 9th July - 249 containers later.

 

I can only wish you better luck.

5 months?  Yikes!

[AncientFire 1,894]

26-1

 

1. 125 repair kits.

2. 125 DD.

[Nicola_M 1,563]

28-1

 

125 Speed Boosts :angry:

[DeathIsImminent 153]

This project was abandoned long ago.

Oh? Then someone should make a new thread and have this one closed, or change ownership, because the thread is going and none is here to update it and I can't see the results at all.

[lssimo 1,559]

Oh? Then someone should make a new thread and have this one closed, or change ownership, because the thread is going and none is here to update it and I can't see the results at all.

There would have to be a volunteer or volunteers to run a project like this.

[Shaftermath 185]

29-1:
Paint - Container (Retina) ,
Supplies - DA - 125

29-1:
Gold Boxes - 5

28-1:
Supplies - RK - 125

25-1:
Batteries - 150

25-1:
Supplies - DD - 125

25-1:
Crystals - 3500


The problem with the data here is that folks tend to post when they get good rewards, but less often when they get bad rewards, which skews the results. I've posted every one of the 862 boxes I've received, which is a reasonable sample, and I've recently posted some useful stats on reward probabilities and how they've changed. Is there anything you need to know, particularly?

I'm disappointed they recently reduced the numbers of containers in weekly missions, as not only does it reduce the weekly crystals for most ranks, but it will now take longer to gather the stats on how the rewards are changing. It's important to know this, as people buy containers and want to know what they're likely to get.

If a few other folks can commit to posting every container they receive,that would help.

[lssimo 1,559]

We need a new project, but we need volunteers.

 

My idea is to report opening containers in videos that show the date of opening. More accurate and good for Youtubers.

 

Then volunteers to verify, collect data and do the math. With results every month.

[x_Sorinel_x 52]

So this is what I got from 31 containers (16 Common, 11 Uncommon, 3 Rare, 1 Epic):

 

49.000 Crystals

     700 Mine

     700 Repair Kits

     575 Double Damage

     575 Double Armor

     450 Speed Boost

       15 Gold Boxes

       10 Days of Premium Account

         1 Paint - Roger

         1 Shot Effect - Gold for Twins

 

And this is what I got in January, from 31 containers (23 Common, 5 Uncommon, 1 Rare, 2 Epic):

 

27.500 Crystals

     725 Double Armor

     725 Mine

     725 Speed Boost

     475 Double Damage

     350 Repair Kits

         3 Days of Premium Account

         3 Paint - Emerald, Sillicate, Steak

Edited January 31, 2019 by x_Sorinel_x

[Nicola_M 1,563]

Feb01

Supplies - RK - 125

[x_Sorinel_x 52]

01.02 - 125 Speed Boost

02.02 - 5 Gold Boxes

03.02 - 125 Double Damage

04.02 - 125 Speed Boost

05.02 - 125 Mine

06.02 - Sky effect

07.02 - 125 Mine

08.02 - 5 Gold Boxes

09.02 - 125 Double Damage

10.02 - 125 Double Armor

11.02 - 125 Double Armor

12.02 - 125 Double Armor

13.02 - 150 Batteries

14.02 - 5 Gold Boxes

15.02 - 100 of all Supplies

16.02 - Night paint

17.02 - 125 Double Armor

18.02 - 125 Speed Boost

19.02 - 125 Double Damage

20.02 - 125 Mine

21.02 - 125 Repair Kits

22.02 - Peru paint

23.02 - 125 Double Armor

24.02 - Lead paint

25.02 - Inferno paint

26.02 - 125 Mine

27.02 - 5 Gold Boxes

28.02 - 125 Double Armor

Edited March 4, 2019 by x_Sorinel_x