Container Project to Learn Reward Probabilities

[S.T.E.A.L.T.H 659]

3 Days of Premium

125 Speed Boosts

125 Double Damages

[C.O.N.Q.U.E.R.O.R 3,845]

As per request of @LittleWillie..

[Ishrak 932]

This week on mi acc:

 

125 Double Damage

Holiday Lights

125 Mines

 

 

 

I wanted Flow or Synesthesia tbh, but I can't really complain with Holiday Lights. :P Even though the fact is, it will be another few years till I get another Legendary Paint.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ishrak

[Nine 693]

All crap

 

2x 125 DD

 

1x 3.5k

[omarhero1 401]

Jade paint

3500 crys

and last but not least, 125 DD :D

[Viking4s 10,791]

I am starting to think not all items within a category all have the same odds.

At any rate, I now list the Paints all together as their own category.

Common Rewards = 54.2% of all rewards

[...]

Uncommon Rewards = 31.8% of all rewards

[...]

Rare Rewards           = 5.0% of all rewards

[...]

Paint Rewards         = 9.0% of all rewards

Garage          5.0%

Shop             3.0%

Premium       0.0%

Legendary     1.0%

I disagree with you on the split, you should follow the same split as shown in the wiki. https://en.tankiwiki.com/Containers 

✹ Common

✹ Uncommon

✹ Rare (Garage)

✹ Epic (shop + premium)

✹ Legendary (legendary + animated)

Because it clearly suggest different stats among the paints group.

It's true that the probs for shop paint will be higher than premium (only 2 of them currently), so the later will have a lower occurrence, maybe even lower than legendary. If you make a distinction between shop and premium, then you should also split them then you should split legendary and animated paint.

 

Or proposed both with the paint together (as you did: paint reward) and with the paint separated (3 category, rare, epic and legendary).

 

To report on the paints stats difference maybe you should do like this:

✹ Garage          5.0%

✹ Shop             3.0%

✹ Premium       0.0%

✹ Legendary     x.x%

✹ Animated       x.x%

Edited January 18, 2018 by Viking4s

[Stratosphere 2,234]

10 Days of Premium

125 SU

125 DA

Barber Shop paint

125 DD

125 DA

125 DD

125 DA

[Best_of_thunder_2015 1,354]

10 Days of Premium

125 SU

125 DA

Barber Shop paint

125 DD

125 DA

125 DD

125 DA

you're life is like a boat without good sailors in tanki but me...

 

25k crystals 

125 supplies X3

3.5k X1

10 X2 

And..5 goldboxes which i dropped for myself :D 

[SprayGround 2,851]

125 armors, repairs, double damage.. -_-

[DragonOfStorms 2,706]

On my main account: 125 SU, 125 mines, 125 DA.

 

Not exactly amazing, but hey - there's always next week, am I right?

[gokuMI6 1,290]

Waiting for mine

;)

[SprayGround 2,851]

On my main account: 125 SU, 125 mines, 125 DA.

 

Not exactly amazing, but hey - there's always next week, am I right?

Hopefully next week will be more lucky for us..:d

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Some people seem confused about the Categories. (Common, Uncommon, etc) The bottom line is, these Categories don't mean that much. What does matter is the percent chance for each reward Type. (125 DA, 5 GB, 10 GB, Garage Paint, Shop Paint, etc).

 

WIki IMPLIES the odds for each Type within the same Category are the same, but that may or may not be true. Categories are just crude and undefined indicators of probability. This projects exists to move past crude and undefined to accurate and specific probabilities.

 

We do that by recording the occurance of each of the 18 reward Types then dividing by the total number of opened Containers. The more Containers we open, the more confident we are of our results. 

 

As I type this we have 262 Containers recorded. We'll have 1,000+ before we know it. :)

 

Hope this helps.

Edited January 18, 2018 by LittleWillie

[Mystique 1,127]

Carbon paint

100 of all supplies 

3.5k crystals

[LittleWillie 3,199]

I'm not posting my Containers because ... well ... I'm the guy with the spreadsheet. But maybe y'all will be amused to learn I have had three accounts now get two paints out of their 3 Container allotment. I've gotten Zombie now twice. Oy vey.

 

Well I was darn lucky week 1 now that luck has evened out. :)

 

We have 282 openings now ... I will make a report again tomorrow afternoonish USA time. I am sure we will have over 300 by then.  

 

Thanks again everyone!

[DragonOfStorms 2,706]

On my alt (Dragons_Ire) - 10k crystals, 125 mines, 125 DA

 

Just so you know, I'm listing everything in order, not that it probably matters.

[Hex 11,520]

x125 RK

[MJROCKS05 428]

x125 DD, x125 SU, 10k crys

 

= Nub rewards

 

still waiting for that 250 of all supplies pack  :wub:

[Viking4s 10,791]

125 DD

5GB

125 M

 

yeah one green

[LittleWillie 3,199]

Third Report.    Containers recorded = 292

 

This is still a low sample size. I do not expect these values to be exactly correct. The more rare the reward, the larger the likely error.

 

Note the percentages across all 5 Common rewards are fairly close to equal. But the percentages in the Uncommon and Rare categories vary wildly. The amount of variation within the Common category might be due to the sample size. But the huge proportional differences in the Uncommon and Rare categories are very, very unlikely due to the sample size. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the system does not treat all Uncommon and Rare rewards the same.

 

Note specifically the 10k Crystal reward occurs as often as the Common rewards! Is this TO's intent? Or has TO made a programming error? We players do not know.  But we have to expect the Container system has been programmed incorrectly. We have to be aware TO might decide to re-program the Containers payout once they discover these (possible) mistakes.

 

Note finally I have changed the summary section to give a much more specific prediction of Container yields.

 

---

 

Common Rewards = 56.2% of all rewards

 

3.5k Cry          11.6%

 

125 DA           12.3%

 

125 DD           13.7%

 

125 SU             9.2%

 

125 Mines        9.2%

 

Uncommon Rewards = 28.4% of all rewards

 

10k Cry          12.3%

 

125 RK            5.1%

 

100 Each         4.8%

 

3 Day PA         2.4%

 

5 GB                3.8%

 

Rare Rewards           = 11.6% of all rewards (This figure includes the Rare "Garage" Paints.)

 

25k Cry           2.4%

 

250 Each        1.0-%

 

10 Day PA       1.0%

 

10 GB             1.4%

 

Paint Rewards        

 

Garage          5.8%

 

Shop             2.7%

 

Premium       0.0%

 

Legendary     1.0%

 

Summary  (Average results over the long-term.)

 

The problem of how to value Supplies led to me using three different estimation systems. The change to this new summary eliminates the need for three systems. Instead we are estimating the exact number of each Supply to expect per Container and per week.

 

Three assumptions are used:

 

* Players will gather all the daily bonuses from Premium Accounts that they are due.

 

* Players earn 500 Crystals from the battle fund every single day. Therefore they will earn an 500 extra Crystals during those days they have a Premium Account active.

 

* Players will NOT drop their Gold Boxes to themselves. But they will capture one out of every twenty GBs they drop.

 

---

 

Reward______Per Container______Per Week (i.e. 3 Containers)

 

Crystals              2,780                         8,340

 

     RK                     14                               43

     DA                     25                               74

     DD                     26                               79

     SU                     21                               62

   Mine                    21                               62

 

     GB                      0.33                             1.0

Days of PA               0.17                             0.5

     

Garage Paint           0.06  ...... Or ..... 1 Paint every 6 weeks        

Shop* Paint             0.03  ...... Or ..... 1 Paint every 3 months        

Legendary Paint      0.01  ...... Or ..... 1 Paint every 8 months        

 

(* Shop paint category includes all Shop paints plus the two Premium Garage paints.)

Edited January 19, 2018 by LittleWillie

[Amagi 1,728]

125 Double Power

5 Gold Boxes

10,000 Crystals Pack

[Ishrak 932]

Mammy:

 

125 Double Armor

Graffiti Paint

250 of all supplies

 

 

 

 

[medicguy 27]

10 days PA, 125 RKs, 5 Golds

(I like this update... will likely increase my crystal intake by 6-7x while that premium lasts. Ty TO)

 

For the boxes I caught before the chain reward update, if you're counting those:

125 DD, 125 DA, 3500 Crystals, 125 mines

Edited January 20, 2018 by medicguy

[LittleWillie 3,199]

10 days PA, 125 RKs, 5 Golds

(I like this update... will likely increase my crystal intake by 6-7x while that premium lasts. Ty TO)

 

For the boxes I caught before the chain reward update, if you're counting those:

125 DD, 125 DA, 3500 Crystals, 125 mines

 

Were the older ones caught after Christmas?  That is to say, not that much longer before the chain went in?  

----

Thanks for the data everyone! Over 300 now. I'll make report #4 after we get over 400. When we get to 500+ I will make a special report to compare the overall differences between the 3x system and this new 1.8x+Containers system.

 

(I got ANOTHER paint. Arg.)

Edited January 20, 2018 by LittleWillie

[The_Pakistani 16,768]

>> 3500

>> 125 DD

>> 125 DD

>> 125 DA

>>125 SB

>> 10 GBs

 

and FREAKING 125 MINES FROM ALL 3 CONTAINERS ON THIS FREAKING ACCOUNT

Edited January 20, 2018 by The_Pakistani