update Patch Update #675 - Released 14th January 2022

[BruhBruhThingThing 413]

2 hours ago, At_Shin said:

Yay, I finally got my Dictator mk7-20 rolled back to mk1.

I have always wanted to do that ,

If that's true, then its gotta be the most insidious ploy to make money.

1 hour ago, wolverine848 said:

Hammer ... what?  

Default hammer?

47 minutes ago, DestrotankAI9 said:

Pretty painful - if this is the future of the game, I think I'll have to consider quitting.

Time to find another game.

[Person_Random 4,991]

Hi. I'm back. Looking through new container rewards has inspired me to prepare the following:

A tale of Two Expectations, Round II

Is a container truly a better reward when ranking up? Or as a premium reward? Of course, I'd hope by now most of you have developed some sense of mathematical intuition on how this works, but if not, we're here to get to the bottom of it.

So let's work with the given:

• Previously, you earned 2500 crystals per day as well as 10 of each supply (except repair kits, which were worth 3x as much, so you got 10//3 = 3 of those). 
• You also earned a crystal amount for ranking up. This would range from 10 - 40000 crystals from Private to Legend.
• For both of these events, you now receive 1 container.

Now, this means we need to calculate the expected value of a container as well as the values of the previous two events.

For Premium Bonus:

This is fairly simple. We can just convert the supplies to their crystal values and then add to 2500:

4*(10(50)) + 3(150) + 2500 = 2000 + 450 + 2500 = 4950 crystals.

For Ranking up:

If you're a Legend, it's a flat rate of 40000 crystals per rank up. If not (and you're making your way to your first Legend rank), it's a value according to the following chart. For fun, that average is around 11067 crystals - you get more than the average once you reach Major.

For Containers:

*sigh* You know how physics questions always come with a ton of assumptions - e.g. assume this is an ideal op-amp, assume this is an inertial frame of reference, assume air resistance is negligible, and so on? Well, it's time to buckle up our seatbelts and play the assumption game. So for today's episode, we will have 2 scenarios:

1. The complete newbie - this player will have no rewards unlocked except the turrets and hulls as I've looked across accounts and it seems a bit complex (e.g. one account had different rewards as compared to the other) and plus it will not affect the results too much.

2. The whale - honestly, this guy should more about paying his rent than getting container rewards, with all the rewards unlocked except pure repeatable rewards.

Of course, these are a bit on the extreme end, but you can tell where you lie approximately and then be able to assess your expected value from there - just note that your expected values should decrease following a logarithmic pattern (starting at a high value and losing value little by little).

We then try to convert everything into crystal value with the following assumptions:

• Supplies and augments are converted into their crystal values. That means for the core 4 supplies (BD, BA, Speed Boosts, Mines) that should be 50 crystals, 150 crystals for repair kits, and 300 crystals for batteries. And as for turret augments, it's 149 and 245k or something like that. 
• The following items don't have an "assigned" crystal value, but I will make a broader assumption giving Tanki the benefit of the doubt:
  • Rare Tier Paints: 100000 crystals (it would be unfair to overlook 10 crystals paint and replace that with maxed 500k paint, so I settled for a more fair medium bound)
  • Epic/Legendary Paints: 500000 crystals (as per highest value, plus it caps out in price)
  • Shot Effects: 100000 crystals (lower value in my opinion - similar to a paint)
  • Hull Augments: 500000 crystals (It's a bit more valuable than some basic turret augments)
  • Legendary Augments: 500000 crystals (to be fair, it really caps out as no augment is a permanent meta buff forever)

So, with that all done and dusted, aha, you thought we were done here. Nope. First, we need to compute the expected value of each tier, then combine that expected value to compute the total expected value. For this, we make another few more assumptions:

• We assume that all rewards are drawn at an equal probability - i.e. you have the same probability of getting mines as getting 1000 crystals at the uncommon tier. (To visualize this, just think of a bag and put all the rewards in each tier in the bag, then draw one out and replace it for the next container if it is a repeatable item).
• Just kidding, it was just one assumption. I just wanted to add bullet points because it looks really cool.

Now, it's time to do the math. Let's get the expected (crystal) value for each tier. I went and smashed these into TeXit:

Note that I decided to use approximations since it was far too difficult to smash calculator for a difference on the order of 1-2% and I just completely stopped caring about epics for Scenario 1. But here are your values.

Note: Don't forget about utility!

I used crystal values because that is the most neutral way of calculating these. However, keep in mind that utility is also in play. As a very basic example, if you really want an augment and get it, your utility for the reward is high; conversely, if you really didn't want the augment and get it, your utility is low. The perceived value for a reward definitely plays a role, and you'll need to keep that in mind when making your decisions.

Bottom Line

• The resulting expected value of containers (in crystals, with a generous upper bound) is between 5689 and 32064 crystals.
  • This makes a rank-up container somewhat valuable in lower ranks as a container's reward is far more than 10 crystals for ranking up to private, but this value decreases as time goes on and considering utility.
  • Again, with all things considered (e.g. utility), the premium reward stays about the same in value. However, utility does play a role here. I would rather have a constant supply of same rewards as opposed to putting my reward luck on the roulette.
• Additionally, the distribution of container rewards is right skewed - i.e. the chances of getting something more common (to the left of the EV bar) is higher and vice versa, the chances of getting something less common (to the right of the EV bar) is lower.
  • The implications of this is fairly simple - for right skewed distributions, the mean is higher than the median. This means even though the EV is higher, you often get a lower valued reward as there are simply more values that fall under the mean (I hope you already knew this). Here's a visual explanation.

In the end, your expected earnings are higher for lower-ranked rankups, lower for higher-ranked rankups, and a coin toss for Premium rewards. But it all depends on your perceived utility of these items (of which I've inputted generous values as placeholders) as only you can determine that. 

P.S. I won't comment much on shards vs. mission containers. Basically this update only gives containers for playing MM as opposed to some passive income and some active income - again, that depends on your preferences and play habits to see if you win or lose on this one.

Note: Fixed the math, the resolution might be fuzzy because PDF -> png.

[bossman161 84]

3 minutes ago, Person_Random said:

Hi. I'm back. Looking through new container rewards has inspired me to prepare the following:

A tale of Two Expectations, Round II

Is a container truly a better reward when ranking up? Or as a premium reward? Of course, I'd hope by now most of you have developed some sense of mathematical intuition on how this works, but if not, we're here to get to the bottom of it.

So let's work with the given:

• Previously, you earned 2500 crystals per day as well as 10 of each supply (except repair kits, which were worth 3x as much, so you got 10//3 = 3 of those). 
• You also earned a crystal amount for ranking up. This would range from 10 - 40000 crystals from Private to Legend.
• For both of these events, you now receive 1 container.

Now, this means we need to calculate the expected value of a container as well as the values of the previous two events.

For Premium Bonus:

This is fairly simple. We can just convert the supplies to their crystal values and then add to 2500:

4*(10(50)) + 3(150) + 2500 = 2000 + 450 + 2500 = 4950 crystals.

For Ranking up:

If you're a Legend, it's a flat rate of 40000 crystals per rank up. If not (and you're making your way to your first Legend rank), it's a value according to the following chart. For fun, that average is around 11067 crystals - you get more than the average once you reach Major.

For Containers:

*sigh* You know how physics questions always come with a ton of assumptions - e.g. assume this is an ideal op-amp, assume this is an inertial frame of reference, assume air resistance is negligible, and so on? Well, it's time to buckle up our seatbelts and play the assumption game. So for today's episode, we will have 2 scenarios:

1. The complete newbie - this player will have no rewards unlocked except the turrets and hulls as I've looked across accounts and it seems a bit complex (e.g. one account had different rewards as compared to the other) and plus it will not affect the results too much.

2. The whale - honestly, this guy should more about paying his rent than getting container rewards, with all the rewards unlocked except pure repeatable rewards.

Of course, these are a bit on the extreme end, but you can tell where you lie approximately and then be able to assess your expected value from there - just note that your expected values should decrease following a logarithmic pattern (starting at a high value and losing value little by little).

We then try to convert everything into crystal value with the following assumptions:

• Supplies and augments are converted into their crystal values. That means for the core 4 supplies (BD, BA, Speed Boosts, Mines) that should be 50 crystals, 150 crystals for repair kits, and 300 crystals for batteries. And as for turret augments, it's 149 and 245k or something like that. 
• The following items don't have an "assigned" crystal value, but I will make a broader assumption giving Tanki the benefit of the doubt:
  • Rare Tier Paints: 100000 crystals (it would be unfair to overlook 10 crystals paint and replace that with maxed 500k paint, so I settled for a more fair medium bound)
  • Epic/Legendary Paints: 500000 crystals (as per highest value, plus it caps out in price)
  • Shot Effects: 100000 crystals (lower value in my opinion - similar to a paint)
  • Hull Augments: 500000 crystals (It's a bit more valuable than some basic turret augments)
  • Legendary Augments: 500000 crystals (to be fair, it really caps out as no augment is a permanent meta buff forever)

So, with that all done and dusted, aha, you thought we were done here. Nope. First, we need to compute the expected value of each tier, then combine that expected value to compute the total expected value. For this, we make another few more assumptions:

• We assume that all rewards are drawn at an equal probability - i.e. you have the same probability of getting mines as getting 1000 crystals at the uncommon tier. (To visualize this, just think of a bag and put all the rewards in each tier in the bag, then draw one out and replace it for the next container if it is a repeatable item).
• Just kidding, it was just one assumption. I just wanted to add bullet points because it looks really cool.

Now, it's time to do the math. Let's get the expected (crystal) value for each tier. I went and smashed these into TeXit:

Note that I decided to use approximations since it was far too difficult to smash calculator for a difference on the order of 1-2% and I just completely stopped caring about epics for Scenario 1. But here are your values.

Note: Don't forget about utility!

I used crystal values because that is the most neutral way of calculating these. However, keep in mind that utility is also in play. As a very basic example, if you really want an augment and get it, your utility for the reward is high; conversely, if you really didn't want the augment and get it, your utility is low. The perceived value for a reward definitely plays a role, and you'll need to keep that in mind when making your decisions.

Bottom Line

• The resulting expected value of containers (in crystals, with a generous upper bound) is between 5689 and 32064 crystals.
  • This makes a rank-up container somewhat valuable in lower ranks as a container's reward is far more than 10 crystals for ranking up to private, but this value decreases as time goes on and considering utility.
  • Again, with all things considered (e.g. utility), the premium reward stays about the same in value. However, utility does play a role here. I would rather have a constant supply of same rewards as opposed to putting my reward luck on the roulette.
• Additionally, the distribution of container rewards is right skewed - i.e. the chances of getting something more common (to the left of the EV bar) is higher and vice versa, the chances of getting something less common (to the right of the EV bar) is lower.
  • The implications of this is fairly simple - for right skewed distributions, the mean is higher than the median. This means even though the EV is higher, you often get a lower valued reward as there are simply more values that fall under the mean (I hope you already knew this).

In the end, your expected earnings are higher for lower-ranked rankups, lower for higher-ranked rankups, and a coin toss for Premium rewards. But it all depends on your perceived utility of these items (of which I've inputted generous values as placeholders) as only you can determine that. 

P.S. I won't comment much on shards vs. mission containers. Basically this update only gives containers for playing MM as opposed to some passive income and some active income - again, that depends on your preferences and play habits to see if you win or lose on this one.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that it will benefit starters immensely.

[Person_Random 4,991]

1 minute ago, bossman161 said:

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that it will benefit starters immensely.

Some people like math okay 

[stat.padder 225]

Eew

 

Well...at least I might get AP smoky from green containers.

Edited January 14, 2022 by stat.padder

[lssimo 1,559]

[supertank 29]

I already have all hulls and turrets, but I got dictator and railgun from green containers. why? is this a normal case? 

[numericable 2,375]

14 minutes ago, lssimo said:

?

[lssimo 1,559]

Just now, supertank said:

I already have all hulls and turrets, but I got dictator and railgun from green containers. why? is this a normal case? 

Maybe everyone will get all available equipments again eventually, as if we were new players.

 

Just now, numericable said:

?

Missing what's missing, the Shards' clock.

Are the ad Shards working?

Edited January 14, 2022 by lssimo

[stat.padder 225]

1 minute ago, lssimo said:

Missing what's missing, the Shards' clock.

Are the ad Shards working?

Ads are working.

[bossman161 84]

Ofc the people who came up with this... wonderful.

1 hour ago, Person_Random said:

Some people like math okay 

Sorry. Just absolutely hopping raving mad right now that AP would have the audacity to do this to us. And to think....TO THINK, I was starting to think things were turning out okay. Boy I sure af am eating dirt right now thinking about it. HAHAHA fooled me good.

[stat.padder 225]

This is supposed to be rare!?

[DestrotankAI9 1,513]

1 hour ago, Person_Random said:

Hi. I'm back. Looking through new container rewards has inspired me to prepare the following:

A tale of Two Expectations, Round II

Is a container truly a better reward when ranking up? Or as a premium reward? Of course, I'd hope by now most of you have developed some sense of mathematical intuition on how this works, but if not, we're here to get to the bottom of it.

So let's work with the given:

• Previously, you earned 2500 crystals per day as well as 10 of each supply (except repair kits, which were worth 3x as much, so you got 10//3 = 3 of those). 
• You also earned a crystal amount for ranking up. This would range from 10 - 40000 crystals from Private to Legend.
• For both of these events, you now receive 1 container.

Now, this means we need to calculate the expected value of a container as well as the values of the previous two events.

For Premium Bonus:

This is fairly simple. We can just convert the supplies to their crystal values and then add to 2500:

4*(10(50)) + 3(150) + 2500 = 2000 + 450 + 2500 = 4950 crystals.

For Ranking up:

If you're a Legend, it's a flat rate of 40000 crystals per rank up. If not (and you're making your way to your first Legend rank), it's a value according to the following chart. For fun, that average is around 11067 crystals - you get more than the average once you reach Major.

For Containers:

*sigh* You know how physics questions always come with a ton of assumptions - e.g. assume this is an ideal op-amp, assume this is an inertial frame of reference, assume air resistance is negligible, and so on? Well, it's time to buckle up our seatbelts and play the assumption game. So for today's episode, we will have 2 scenarios:

1. The complete newbie - this player will have no rewards unlocked except the turrets and hulls as I've looked across accounts and it seems a bit complex (e.g. one account had different rewards as compared to the other) and plus it will not affect the results too much.

2. The whale - honestly, this guy should more about paying his rent than getting container rewards, with all the rewards unlocked except pure repeatable rewards.

Of course, these are a bit on the extreme end, but you can tell where you lie approximately and then be able to assess your expected value from there - just note that your expected values should decrease following a logarithmic pattern (starting at a high value and losing value little by little).

We then try to convert everything into crystal value with the following assumptions:

• Supplies and augments are converted into their crystal values. That means for the core 4 supplies (BD, BA, Speed Boosts, Mines) that should be 50 crystals, 150 crystals for repair kits, and 300 crystals for batteries. And as for turret augments, it's 149 and 245k or something like that. 
• The following items don't have an "assigned" crystal value, but I will make a broader assumption giving Tanki the benefit of the doubt:
  • Rare Tier Paints: 100000 crystals (it would be unfair to overlook 10 crystals paint and replace that with maxed 500k paint, so I settled for a more fair medium bound)
  • Epic/Legendary Paints: 500000 crystals (as per highest value, plus it caps out in price)
  • Shot Effects: 100000 crystals (lower value in my opinion - similar to a paint)
  • Hull Augments: 500000 crystals (It's a bit more valuable than some basic turret augments)
  • Legendary Augments: 500000 crystals (to be fair, it really caps out as no augment is a permanent meta buff forever)

So, with that all done and dusted, aha, you thought we were done here. Nope. First, we need to compute the expected value of each tier, then combine that expected value to compute the total expected value. For this, we make another few more assumptions:

• We assume that all rewards are drawn at an equal probability - i.e. you have the same probability of getting mines as getting 1000 crystals at the uncommon tier. (To visualize this, just think of a bag and put all the rewards in each tier in the bag, then draw one out and replace it for the next container if it is a repeatable item).
• Just kidding, it was just one assumption. I just wanted to add bullet points because it looks really cool.

Now, it's time to do the math. Let's get the expected (crystal) value for each tier. I went and smashed these into TeXit:

Note that I decided to use approximations since it was far too difficult to smash calculator for a difference on the order of 1-2% and I just completely stopped caring about epics for Scenario 1. But here are your values.

Note: Don't forget about utility!

I used crystal values because that is the most neutral way of calculating these. However, keep in mind that utility is also in play. As a very basic example, if you really want an augment and get it, your utility for the reward is high; conversely, if you really didn't want the augment and get it, your utility is low. The perceived value for a reward definitely plays a role, and you'll need to keep that in mind when making your decisions.

Bottom Line

• The resulting expected value of containers (in crystals, with a generous upper bound) is between 5689 and 32064 crystals.
  • This makes a rank-up container somewhat valuable in lower ranks as a container's reward is far more than 10 crystals for ranking up to private, but this value decreases as time goes on and considering utility.
  • Again, with all things considered (e.g. utility), the premium reward stays about the same in value. However, utility does play a role here. I would rather have a constant supply of same rewards as opposed to putting my reward luck on the roulette.
• Additionally, the distribution of container rewards is right skewed - i.e. the chances of getting something more common (to the left of the EV bar) is higher and vice versa, the chances of getting something less common (to the right of the EV bar) is lower.
  • The implications of this is fairly simple - for right skewed distributions, the mean is higher than the median. This means even though the EV is higher, you often get a lower valued reward as there are simply more values that fall under the mean (I hope you already knew this). Here's a visual explanation.

In the end, your expected earnings are higher for lower-ranked rankups, lower for higher-ranked rankups, and a coin toss for Premium rewards. But it all depends on your perceived utility of these items (of which I've inputted generous values as placeholders) as only you can determine that. 

P.S. I won't comment much on shards vs. mission containers. Basically this update only gives containers for playing MM as opposed to some passive income and some active income - again, that depends on your preferences and play habits to see if you win or lose on this one.

Note: Fixed the math, the resolution might be fuzzy because PDF -> png.

It's nice of you to try to work out the new value of premium, and also the expected value of the new containers, but in practice what does this really mean? You have worked out the value of old premium vs new premium, but you have not worked out the different between old containers and new containers, or old Ultras and new ones - and it is quite clear that they are now worth substantially less (at least for containers - for Ultras, not sure, but those are rarely obtained for free players or light buyers anyway).

And also, while it is nice to work out the expected value of premium - the fact is that premium is going to be nearly impossible to obtain for most players now. We have no premium from regular containers, and the only chance to obtain it is from the highest tier of Ultra Containers (the chance to obtain exotic tier is undisclosed, and it is only one of many rewards).

It's nice to work out these things, but this only serves as a distraction from the "bad news" maths - the fact is, income from daily missions and weekly missions is heavily reduced, the amount of supplies and crystals that free players/light buyers can obtain is heavily reduced, and there is very little chance to get premium.

I'm trying to complete my special missions, which normally would be fun, and even using the most economical drones I am on 0 repair kits, and running out of many supplies. While facing buyers with enough supplies to use all drones. It seems non-buyers will now have to compete often without repair kits, with Brutus drone - vs heavy buyers using the best equipment and full supplies.

Please let's not try to distact from what is an awful, and highly unfair update for most players - with fancy maths.
 

1 hour ago, Person_Random said:

The following items don't have an "assigned" crystal value, but I will make a broader assumption giving Tanki the benefit of the doubt:

• Rare Tier Paints: 100000 crystals (it would be unfair to overlook 10 crystals paint and replace that with maxed 500k paint, so I settled for a more fair medium bound)
• Epic/Legendary Paints: 500000 crystals (as per highest value, plus it caps out in price)
• Shot Effects: 100000 crystals (lower value in my opinion - similar to a paint)

 

I'm sorry but no, these assumptions are wayyy off. Rare tier paints valued at 100,000 crystals, epic and legendary tier at 500,000? Shot effects at 100,000? Paints are nice to have, as are shot effects, but these are cosmetic items. Their value, in terms of actual gameplay, is 0 crystals. If you repeated these calculations giving cosmetic items a value of 0 crystals, then we would arrive at a more accurate figure for the value of containers, in terms of their value for actual gameplay. And their value with regard to actual practical gameplay use - is MUCH lower than it was before.

Let's not be naive, that the paints are clearly put in containers in large numbers, partly for the purpose of reducing the chances to get rewards of actual value for gameplay.

Also, for a more meaningful comparison you would need to compare the value of old containers to new ones as I said (but of course that is not really possible, since the developers did not disclose to exact chances to get each tier). The only way to really do that, would to be look at the data that some players have posted, on how likely they were to get each tier from containers that they have opened.

 

1 hour ago, bossman161 said:

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that it will benefit starters immensely.

Totally false, this update will not benefit players of any rank immensely. I recently started a new account, and I was having a great time with a good supply and crystal count - the gameplay experience overall was quite good. As it was with my Legend account - I had enough supplies to compete playing missions only, even against buyers.

Now, completing these special missions has been a torture. Running out of supplies, getting farmed by buyers using Crisis and top tier drones, while I can barely afford to use Brutus. Containers are giving 1k crystals, or mediocre amounts of supplies - even uncommon tier gives less than the previous common tier, as I said.

This update could well destroy the game, I am not looking forward to playing with no supplies, not even having enough to use good drones at Legend, against heavy buyers who can afford to use Crisis or any drone they want 24/7. Not even having repair kits to compete against those guys? That will be the end of the road for many players.

Edited January 14, 2022 by DestrotankAI9

[bossman161 84]

2 minutes ago, DestrotankAI9 said:

It's nice of you to try to work out the "new" value of premium, and also the expected value of containers, but in practice what does this really mean? You have worked out the value of "Old" premium vs new premium, but you have conveniently not worked out the different between "old" containers and new containers, or "old" Ultras and new ones - and it is quite clear that they are now worth substantially less (at least for containers - for Ultras, not sure, but those are rarely obtained for free players or light buyers anyway).

And also, while it is nice to work out the expected value of premium - the fact is that premium is going to be nearly impossible to obtain for most players now. We have no premium from regular containers, and the only chance to obtain it is from the highest tier of Ultra Containers (the chance to obtain exotic tier is undisclosed, and it is only one of many rewards).

It's nice to work out these things, but this only serves as a distraction from the "bad news" maths - the fact is, income from daily missions and weekly missions is heavily reduced, the amount of supplies and crystals that free players/light buyers can obtain is heavily reduced, and there is very little chance to get premium.

I'm trying to complete my special missions, which normally would be fun, and even using the most economical drones I am on 0 repair kits, and running out of many supplies. While facing buyers with enough supplies to use all drones. It seems non-buyers will now have to compete often without repair kits, with Brutus drone - vs heavy buyers using the best equipment and full supplies.

Please let's not try to distact from what is an awful, and highly unfair update for most players - with fancy maths.
 

I'm sorry but no, these assumptions are wayyy off. Rare tier paints valued at 100,000 crystals, epic and legendary tier at 500,000? Shot effects at 100,000? Paints are nice to have, as are shot effects, but these are cosmetic items. Their value, in terms of actual gameplay, is 0 crystals. If you repeated these calculations giving cosmetic items a value of 0 crystals, then we would arrive at a more accurate figure for the value of containers, in terms of their value for actual gameplay. And the value - is MUCH lower than it was before.

Let's not be naive, that the paints are clearly put in containers in large numbers, partly for the purpose of reducing the chances to get rewards of actual value for gameplay.

Also, for a more meaningful comparison you would need to compare the value of "old" containers to new ones as I said (but of course that is not really possible, since the developers did not disclose to exact chances to get each tier). The only way to really do that, would to be look at the data that some players have posted, on how likely they were to get each tier from containers that they have opened.

 

Totally false, this update will not benefit players of any rank immensely. I recently started a new account, and I was having a great time with a good supply and crystal count - the gameplay experience overall was quite good. As it was with my Legend account - I had enough supplies to compete playing missions only, even against buyers.

Now, completing these special missions has been a torture. Running out of supplies, getting farmed by buyers using Crisis and top tier drones. Containers are giving 1k crystals, or mediocre amounts of supplies - even uncommon tier gives less than the previous common tier, as I said.

This update could well destroy the game, I am not looking forward to playing with no supplies, not even having enough to use good drones at Legend, against heavy buyers who can afford to use Crisis or any drone they want 24/7. Not even having repair kits to compete against those guys? That will be the end of the road for many players.

You're right, I didn't take that into account.

[lssimo 1,559]

There's one upside of no Premium for non-Legends, no extra EXP.

[bossman161 84]

5 minutes ago, lssimo said:

There's one upside of no Premium for non-Legends, no extra EXP.

How is that an upside?

[Thankxtu 286]

6 minutes ago, lssimo said:

There's one upside of no Premium for non-Legends, no extra EXP.

Its not really an upside when the mm rank pool is totally messed up. 

[bossman161 84]

So this managed to escape my attention...

• Sport and Classic formats are added to PRO battles, but you cannot earn crystals or experience in them (like in the Parkour mode);

• Removed DR, XP, and BP formats. The XP/BP format is kept;
  
  This basically means we can't earn crystals outside of the automated MM system. Any battle in the mm list for pro battles won't reward anything. This is the final nail in the coffin.

[Mr.Spark 240]

Hahah tesla paladin will be disappeared :D

Edited January 14, 2022 by Spy
Kindly refrain from spamming.

[Person_Random 4,991]

16 minutes ago, DestrotankAI9 said:

You have worked out the value of old premium vs new premium, but you have not worked out the different between old containers and new containers, or old Ultras and new ones - and it is quite clear that they are now worth substantially less (at least for containers - for Ultras, not sure, but those are rarely obtained for free players or light buyers anyway).

Yes, you are absolutely correct. However, I do not have the rarity group chances of old containers so I cannot compare them with new containers. At least not right now. Hopefully that data is released soon and we can then calculate it

As for Ultra Containers, I find that there are just generally fewer use cases and again I do not have a fair comparison so I decided to omit it.

19 minutes ago, DestrotankAI9 said:

It's nice to work out these things, but this only serves as a distraction from the "bad news" maths - the fact is, income from daily missions and weekly missions is heavily reduced, the amount of supplies and crystals that free players/light buyers can obtain is heavily reduced, and there is very little chance to get premium.

I'm trying to complete my special missions, which normally would be fun, and even using the most economical drones I am on 0 repair kits, and running out of many supplies. While facing buyers with enough supplies to use all drones. It seems non-buyers will now have to compete often without repair kits, with Brutus drone - vs heavy buyers using the best equipment and full supplies.

Please let's not try to distact from what is an awful, and highly unfair update for most players - with fancy maths.

That's true - I forgot to consider Premium account as well as the implications behind removing supplies. The post I made was more of a math based post describing the changes of two specific situations and definitely should not be taken into account for everything - it's just there to calculate if the new container rewards for ranking up and premium bonus were fair changes. The intention of the post was not to directly critique the update (as I have posted my general thoughts on the update and the direction of Tanki as a whole elsewhere) but rather to just show some math. I feel like having all things considered would definitely be a more update-based review I could have written had the Newspaper still been around.

22 minutes ago, DestrotankAI9 said:

I'm sorry but no, these assumptions are wayyy off. Rare tier paints valued at 100,000 crystals, epic and legendary tier at 500,000? Shot effects at 100,000? Paints are nice to have, as are shot effects, but these are cosmetic items. Their value, in terms of actual gameplay, is 0 crystals. If you repeated these calculations giving cosmetic items a value of 0 crystals, then we would arrive at a more accurate figure for the value of containers, in terms of their value for actual gameplay. And their value with regard to actual practical gameplay use - is MUCH lower than it was before.

Let's not be naive, that the paints are clearly put in containers in large numbers, partly for the purpose of reducing the chances to get rewards of actual value for gameplay.

Also, for a more meaningful comparison you would need to compare the value of old containers to new ones as I said (but of course that is not really possible, since the developers did not disclose to exact chances to get each tier). The only way to really do that, would to be look at the data that some players have posted, on how likely they were to get each tier from containers that they have opened.

I would assume so. This is why there are the following assumptions:

• We want to assume a generous bound. It's definitely true that players might not value things like paints and shot effects and it's up to their personal utility (and I definitely understand why it would be 0 for some if not all players). However, I wanted to put a higher value to give the game the benefit of the doubt.
• It's a "best case" scenario - each player has a different situation and you cannot tailor it very well to each of them (at least not yet; I could definitely make a EV calculator sometime this weekend)

I've noted this in the disclaimers and mentioned that you need to take personal utility into account as well as those are just specific examples and valuations I have. And yes, if you replaced all the 100ks/500ks with 0 values, you would actually end up tanking the value below 5689, the lower bound - which is definitely not great.

Hopefully that clears it all up. In no way do I mean to sugarcoat any changes or updates but rather just take a look at the valuation of a container right now with very generous assumptions. Perhaps with the V-LOG or future announcements we will able to obtain the previous drop rates and then I can make a better comparison as well as a valuation chart.

[Death_From_The_Skies 25]

1 hour ago, Person_Random said:

Hi. I'm back. Looking through new container rewards has inspired me to prepare the following:

A tale of Two Expectations, Round II

Is a container truly a better reward when ranking up? Or as a premium reward? Of course, I'd hope by now most of you have developed some sense of mathematical intuition on how this works, but if not, we're here to get to the bottom of it.

So let's work with the given:

• Previously, you earned 2500 crystals per day as well as 10 of each supply (except repair kits, which were worth 3x as much, so you got 10//3 = 3 of those). 
• You also earned a crystal amount for ranking up. This would range from 10 - 40000 crystals from Private to Legend.
• For both of these events, you now receive 1 container.

Now, this means we need to calculate the expected value of a container as well as the values of the previous two events.

For Premium Bonus:

This is fairly simple. We can just convert the supplies to their crystal values and then add to 2500:

4*(10(50)) + 3(150) + 2500 = 2000 + 450 + 2500 = 4950 crystals.

For Ranking up:

If you're a Legend, it's a flat rate of 40000 crystals per rank up. If not (and you're making your way to your first Legend rank), it's a value according to the following chart. For fun, that average is around 11067 crystals - you get more than the average once you reach Major.

For Containers:

*sigh* You know how physics questions always come with a ton of assumptions - e.g. assume this is an ideal op-amp, assume this is an inertial frame of reference, assume air resistance is negligible, and so on? Well, it's time to buckle up our seatbelts and play the assumption game. So for today's episode, we will have 2 scenarios:

1. The complete newbie - this player will have no rewards unlocked except the turrets and hulls as I've looked across accounts and it seems a bit complex (e.g. one account had different rewards as compared to the other) and plus it will not affect the results too much.

2. The whale - honestly, this guy should more about paying his rent than getting container rewards, with all the rewards unlocked except pure repeatable rewards.

Of course, these are a bit on the extreme end, but you can tell where you lie approximately and then be able to assess your expected value from there - just note that your expected values should decrease following a logarithmic pattern (starting at a high value and losing value little by little).

We then try to convert everything into crystal value with the following assumptions:

• Supplies and augments are converted into their crystal values. That means for the core 4 supplies (BD, BA, Speed Boosts, Mines) that should be 50 crystals, 150 crystals for repair kits, and 300 crystals for batteries. And as for turret augments, it's 149 and 245k or something like that. 
• The following items don't have an "assigned" crystal value, but I will make a broader assumption giving Tanki the benefit of the doubt:
  • Rare Tier Paints: 100000 crystals (it would be unfair to overlook 10 crystals paint and replace that with maxed 500k paint, so I settled for a more fair medium bound)
  • Epic/Legendary Paints: 500000 crystals (as per highest value, plus it caps out in price)
  • Shot Effects: 100000 crystals (lower value in my opinion - similar to a paint)
  • Hull Augments: 500000 crystals (It's a bit more valuable than some basic turret augments)
  • Legendary Augments: 500000 crystals (to be fair, it really caps out as no augment is a permanent meta buff forever)

So, with that all done and dusted, aha, you thought we were done here. Nope. First, we need to compute the expected value of each tier, then combine that expected value to compute the total expected value. For this, we make another few more assumptions:

• We assume that all rewards are drawn at an equal probability - i.e. you have the same probability of getting mines as getting 1000 crystals at the uncommon tier. (To visualize this, just think of a bag and put all the rewards in each tier in the bag, then draw one out and replace it for the next container if it is a repeatable item).
• Just kidding, it was just one assumption. I just wanted to add bullet points because it looks really cool.

Now, it's time to do the math. Let's get the expected (crystal) value for each tier. I went and smashed these into TeXit:

Note that I decided to use approximations since it was far too difficult to smash calculator for a difference on the order of 1-2% and I just completely stopped caring about epics for Scenario 1. But here are your values.

Note: Don't forget about utility!

I used crystal values because that is the most neutral way of calculating these. However, keep in mind that utility is also in play. As a very basic example, if you really want an augment and get it, your utility for the reward is high; conversely, if you really didn't want the augment and get it, your utility is low. The perceived value for a reward definitely plays a role, and you'll need to keep that in mind when making your decisions.

Bottom Line

• The resulting expected value of containers (in crystals, with a generous upper bound) is between 5689 and 32064 crystals.
  • This makes a rank-up container somewhat valuable in lower ranks as a container's reward is far more than 10 crystals for ranking up to private, but this value decreases as time goes on and considering utility.
  • Again, with all things considered (e.g. utility), the premium reward stays about the same in value. However, utility does play a role here. I would rather have a constant supply of same rewards as opposed to putting my reward luck on the roulette.
• Additionally, the distribution of container rewards is right skewed - i.e. the chances of getting something more common (to the left of the EV bar) is higher and vice versa, the chances of getting something less common (to the right of the EV bar) is lower.
  • The implications of this is fairly simple - for right skewed distributions, the mean is higher than the median. This means even though the EV is higher, you often get a lower valued reward as there are simply more values that fall under the mean (I hope you already knew this). Here's a visual explanation.

In the end, your expected earnings are higher for lower-ranked rankups, lower for higher-ranked rankups, and a coin toss for Premium rewards. But it all depends on your perceived utility of these items (of which I've inputted generous values as placeholders) as only you can determine that. 

P.S. I won't comment much on shards vs. mission containers. Basically this update only gives containers for playing MM as opposed to some passive income and some active income - again, that depends on your preferences and play habits to see if you win or lose on this one.

Note: Fixed the math, the resolution might be fuzzy because PDF -> png.

Ok so taking this in a Mathematical Analysis point of view... did you just realize that the Graph of Skewness you drew was for a Quantity of Multiple variables... for example ranks from Recruit to Legend have been considered. As opposed to usual graph which should be the number of containers opened per person vs. the rarity of the reward. 

Moving on,

Let's say I am a Legend... well I mean I am but hypothetically speaking as an average player. According to the Mathematical Values you presented its a flip of a coin chance to get a Common from a Rank Up Container. (50% Chance) So rewards in that region include 1000 Crystals in rewards so that's (-39 000) deficit for a Legend per rank up. Where even 1 Mk7 Protection upgrade above the 40%s costs about 40000 on average how are we supposed to upgrade. Basing this roulette of luck on Chance we have Legendaries for Containers dropping at about 2% or so... which means a person earning a Legendary from a Rank Up Container will be at about 50 Legend Rank ups and given the math its about 10M XP which takes about 1000+ Hours to reach for an average player. To make things worse Container Prices an UT Container Prices are higher. So a for a Legend who would want to get good rewards it will take a significantly longer time to rank up because Premium has only been made available for the Ultra Rich Buyers category of people in this game.

Also would people be getting a possible refund for the bluff containers. Also did you take to considering the average amount of supplies used by a player and make sure the mean supplies per player is made higher for a sense of continuity to the game. 

First, people had to deal with the issue of Hover hulls 

Second, Status Effect Augments

And now this. 

Let me end with an ethical question on this note,

How would you expect a Game to top the chart when a player's (or in your point of view a potential customer) strength is measured in terms of money rather than skill and actual love for the game.

[Let 1,398]

Soo. 

What we have now!!? 

The new update - hmm i like new updated ultra and regulary container, but you know some players will be sad or angry, bcos some items was very expensive. But also i like update about Lightweight construction (now u can buy with ur crystal). 

About paladin - i agree amd like that update. 

XP, BP, - I really don't know what i need to say. for me it's nothing bcos, everyone playing in XP/BP battle, and it's not matter if both of them will be remove. 

Change equipment - For battle, i mean for balance is really good, but sometimes it's very useless and now it's 8 min and it will be very bad for battles, parkour and..... . Because now we have special missions(99 kill with f.x. hummer, twins, rico) if almost player have protection against ur turret, you need to wait 8 minute in battle and also battle totally furation is 15 min, its almost battle half time. . 

Thanks for understanding. 

GL 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Lestat

[Spy 14,687]

There's a token of apology available in the special missions tab. It consists of 23 regular containers.

Spoiler

 

[Death_From_The_Skies 25]

1 minute ago, Spy said:

There's a token of apology available in the special missions tab. It consists of 23 regular containers.

  Hide contents

 

Is this on Mobile as well or PC only? And just confirming but no drops have changed after the update right?

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Death_From_The_Skies

[Spy 14,687]

Just now, Death_From_The_Skies said:

Is this on PC or Mobile only? And just confirming but no drops have changed after the update right?

 

I assume that it is for both, but someone using Mobile will have to confirm.