Just like last time, let's do some math. 6390 bundles bought. If we assume there were no 20k bundles bought, since without such assumption we can't calculate how many 1k and 6k bundles were bought: Small bundles: 4266.5 Middle bundles: 2123.5 Of course this isn't fully accurate, in reality there were less of each bundle purchases, and a few 20k ones instead. However, we can accurately calculate your chance to win, per bundle bought. 1329 winners, from total 6390 participants: 20.79% chance to win. Pretty good. Unless you got unlucky, which I would never get.

I'm playing with words here ? I said "Best deal we got in a while." Does not say the deal is worth it for you. Just because something is best offer, you might not be interested in it, or you can't afford it. The deal is indeed better than all other deals I can remember from this year. Of course as I said about battle passes, they are most likely better if you wait for a specific one which suits you. However, I actually think it's not as overpriced. You could get 2k tk from new year mission, then couple more very easy special missions for 300 tankoins followed by recent minigame, which certainly gave you around 100, and had a very decent chance to give you almost another 1000 (all this just from completing daily and special missions). Also don't forget about recent tokens for 200 total and 130 from special mission (which I skipped, because too much effort). On top of that, you get 100tk from weekly missions per month. Tankoin offers from shop can be very expensive and unreasonable for you, which I why I listed all the f2p sources of tankoins you could get this year. Those tankoins are enough to buy a few battle passes, or save for specific offer like this one. It's clear many offers are overpriced just to create an illusion of their value, such as skin containers, but you should instead look at what you pay and what you get. Don't feel like it's worth your money, or time? Don't do it. Let those who think it's worth it buy it, and get it yourself once it's affordable. I'm doing the same. I also skip long posts ? You replied, good enough for me. Hehe, all we need now are few millions to upgrade and thousands of supplies to use... Not worth at all, but it's still a hyperion on an alt ?

Tell me a better deal we had this year ? Battle passes are probably the best value after this bundle, but the rewards are fixed. They can either be really good if you don't own any of items in it, or really bad, if you own some or all of them.

I guess you and 3 other people didn't get the joke ? Maybe it wasn't as obvious. Yep, all items are released as exclusive and over time they make it easier to obtain. Armadillo and crisis are on the edge of exclusivity, after you could get crisis 3 times from a minigame (instead of lucky UC) and armadillo was just made available without UC in the last one. Most of other new items have a lot shorter lifetime or exclusivity - tesla, paladin, new augments. It's still quite a bit of time, but they get pushed from exotic to legendary tiers after couple months, in case of tesla and paladin, they got put in garage after months. Crisis and armadillo are still, after over a year in exotic tier, and are used as the main UC sellers. Even as a f2p, you are able to collect a fair amount of UC, so opening armadillo after months is possible. It's still not something you can grind for - you can grind for as many UC for free, but you still need crazy luck, to pull the one specific exotic instead of a mammoth UT. I know even if everyone got crisis and armadillo, they will at best be able to get it to 38-39%, because it costs way too much. That's the best case, it's more likely they won't get it to 25%. Same with crisis - people don't have enough batteries and regular supplies to feed it, it's not realistic for people to both upgrade their garage AND use a drone. As for blaster effect, that's whole another thing. It falls in the same category as new demonic or RF skins - it was sold for crazy amount of money, and is only a cosmetic. Not just any old skin, it's a new cosmetic, which even tho wasn't presented as "exclusive item, which we won't sell ever again", it still feels like it should be somewhat exclusive. Making it part of tanki fund prizes really devalues it. People who spent a lot of money for special shot effect, might question their next purchase of similar exclusive item if it was given to thousands of players for 5% of what they paid. Of course some people would buy it regardless, but you get my point. Moreover, shot effect is just a cosmetic, and it turns out selling cosmetics for a lot of money actually works for tanki, so I don't quite understand why they would gamble putting such a high value and new item in tanki fund. They certainly didn't expect fund to reach it, but I'm assuming they have barely expected the fund to reach even skin containers, let alone blaster or armadillo. We will never know what was their plan. On the other hand, I'm actually fine with either outcome of fund. I could get armadillo and other items on my alt account for just 1200tk if the fund reached it. In this case it's still 2 skin containers for cheaper than 2 battle passes, with a chance to win 8k. Best deal we got in a while. Btw, last time we had a total of 5537 bundles sold, with around 20% chance to win in draw per bundle bought. There were roughly 1800 1k and 3600 6k bundles, so it's clear there have been way less than 5500 participants (accounts) - many people bought multiple silver bundles. This time the rewards are a lot more interesting, so my guess is there will be around 6500-7000 bundles sold instead, but with higher ratio of 1k bundles and thus between 15-20% chance to win in draw per bundle purchase. Right now it's obvious, fund is going to hit 10m in a few hours, but it will most likely reach only around 10.5m Pretty good outcome, I bet majority of players were expecting 6-7m at best.

It took a day and half to gain another million ? If this growth continues, blaster effect is worthless, and we are so close to make armadillo a common item too.

Yes. You don't understand. Number under "participants" on tanki fund page is just calculated. Open a calculator, divide total fund by 8000 and you'll get that number. It's called participants, but I'd rather call it winners. That's number of people drawn in the giveaway. The total number of people who bought a bundle is most likely between 2 and 6 times more than the number of winners.

As a token of apology, I'd appreciate if people got what they lost, because they weren't able to login and play - option to play in weekend's event mode for an extra day or two, and repeated sales. I can see why people want tankoins and free stuff, but this would make more sense.

I used that data about 3 weeks ago for my original rough estimation ? Go check my post (ghost's post is right above it) and also this one. If anyone else has recorded their progress in minigame, or wrote down every step and meteorite outcome, let me know here or DM. I'd use a couple hundred more steps to correct our original predictions.

By any chance, do you have it all recorded, or noted, which numbers you rolled on each step, and if meteorites threw you back? I'm mostly interested how many times you rolled 1/2/3.

There are most likely going to be some sort of celebrations, you might be able to catch enough for it. Sounds like it was purposely made for that. Nvm, I see you got lucky next roll ?

According to a small sample of data, it appears the chance to roll 1 could be 80%, for 2 15% and for 3 5%. Even if these numbers are incorrect, it's certainly rare, however, keep in mind, you'll move x2 or x3 further in one step. You can obviously get unlucky and barely ever roll anything but 1.

It's not feasible for you. I'm assuming that's their intention - checkpoint 4 is probably doable only by buying the remaining energy, or spending all day catching it in battles (there are possibly going to be more "ultra weekends" in the upcoming 3 weeks). Checkpoint 5 is most likely close to impossible even with catching energy, making it buyer-exclusive. Your goal is to make it possible, if not easy to finish whole minigame for f2p. Tanki's goal is to make an event, where: - free players have a reason to participate, get something for free (4th protection slot) - players keep playing - small buyers (or non buyers who may possibly spend a little bit of money, if the reward is too big to pass on) who won't be able to reach legacy skins just from missions and boxes, may buy few bundles, just to finish it - tanki gets smaller amounts of money per player, but from more players. - big buyers who really want those skins either have to spend insane amount of money to finish it instantly (actually, they can't even do that, because you can only buy 1 bundle per day lol). or pay only about half of that if they finish all missions too - tanki gets a lot of money per player, but from less players If tanki gave 5x more energy per box (and assuming we'll have a "x20" gold weekend during all of next 3 weekends), finishing whole minigame would become so easy. If minigame was so easy to complete, there would be no reason for people to spend money, which counters the initial goal - make money. This edition of minigame is executed much better than last one. I still dislike the random aspect, but it's at least limited to a certain point (you won't be rolling -2 forever, there is only a fixed number of meteorites and you can only hit each once). I personally don't like special missions, but it is what it is, and it's certainly more balanced for average players than last time. I also don't like adding pulsar to 4th tier, but I can't change that, the game is making money by selling items. At least it's only a skin in 5th checkpoint.

I know, did I say something else? For you it may sound like scam, but tryhards will most likely catch enough to reach 4th checkpoint, and if some miracle happens during 3 upcoming weekends, it could theoretically be enough for 5th one. Casual players, who only play a bit, should still be able to obtain some more energy from boxes and make it likely for them to reach legacy skins. (Or buy a bundle-two from shop...)

From my experience, I'd recommend you to try it on a different browser. I know different browser solved similar issue for some players.

We don't even need someone to reach the 4th checkpoint. We already know that. Sort of ? We need following info to make our guesses more accurate: - probability to roll 1 2 or 3 on dice and chance for meteorite to send us back 5 steps - drop rate for energy gold box First one could possibly be obtained in a different way, and that's asking many players to tell us what they rolled on dice (every time they roll), and if they were thrown back on a meteorite whenever they step on one. With thousands of "rolls" submitted you'll get fairly accurate results. Second one can also be estimated the same way, but it's going to be a lot more randomized.

It doesn't influence my best/worst situations, since those already account for that. I was already aware of this and for calculation using experimental data, I assumed you'll step on every meteorite. At the start, you have about 80% chance to step on meteorite and towards 4th and 5th checkpoint, chance to step on meteorite goes up... It's hard to calculate chance to step on those meteorites, as there are multiple ones overlapping, but it's somewhere between 90 and 100% Person_Random took another approach and simulated a playthrough many times, then used statistical data, which very well displays possible outcomes and their probability. So yes, both already included meteor overlapping situations in some way.

you disappointed me, because you ignored my post ?

It's because once you step on it, it gets deleted. There should be 12 meteorites from 4th to 5th checkpoint.

tl;dr You can always get free extra protection slot, just by completing all daily missions, and at least 2 special missions. Minigame is live, we got a little more information to work with. Some of the info may still be incorrect, hopefully it won't be :x Please don't blame me if something goes wrong. Energy: 4 per daily mission, 324 total. 40 per special mission, 280 total (however one locked behind premium) You can collect 604 energy total, without buying offers from shop. You'll however need at least a day of premium. If you can't get premium, you can only obtain 564 energy. I'm not counting gold boxes yet. Game: (pretty much just explaining in more detail, skip if you want) I'll refer to "fragments" as "squares". There are 89 total squares. Starting one is not counted. First square is also first checkpoint, where you get participation paint prize. From that point, remaining squares are split into 4 parts, each ending with a checkpoint. Between 2 checkpoints, there are 21 squares. (4x 21 + 5 checkpoints = 89) There are also radioactive squares marked as meteorites. Each checkpoint has more of them, which makes every checkpoint harder to reach than previous one. First to second: 3 meteorites Second to third: 5 meteorites Third to fourth: 9 meteorites Fourth to Fifth: 12 meteorites (the image is edited, just to show where meteorites are positioned, thanks for info about meteorite positions @Winky) We do not know chances to roll 1, 2 or 3 on dice, and neither we know chances for meteorites to throw you back. At least I don't quite understand what does this mean. We can still use this to calculate BEST and WORST scenario. These are less likely to happen than... uh.. I'll stop here. Best: Always roll 3, meteorites will never throw you back (there is chance meteorites won't throw you back, maybe it's that 50%). Worst: Always roll 1, every meteorite will throw you back 5 squares. So you'll need at least 300 and in the worst case 2340 energy. I think most of you want to know how much energy it can take to a specific checkpoint (and what's the worst situation). As before, best scenario assumes always rolling 3, and meteorites never throwing you back. Worst scenario assumes the opposite, always rolling 1, and every meteorite throwing you back by 5. Second checkpoint: (extra protection slot) Third checkpoint: (smoky + wasp LGC) Fourth checkpoint: (crisis, armadillo, new OP augment) Now there is a second part, using experimental data from @Ghost_Animators: 80% chance to roll 1 15% chance to roll 2 5% chance to roll 3 8 out of 13 meteorites pulled back, and always pulled back by 5. That's 61.5%. It's pretty hard to tell if that's supposed to be 75% or 50% or a value between, but I'm going to use 75% pull back chance, just to simulate worse luck situation. I'm assuming that meteorite is always supposed to pull you back by 5, because it's pretty unlikely to get 8 times -5 if you could be pulled by only 1, 2,3 or 5 There is however extra problem past checkpoint 2. If you skip certain meteorite by rolling 2 or 3, but hit next meteorite, you will be thrown in front of the first one, giving you extra chance to step on a meteorite, which you previously skipped. This gets even worse in last checkpoint, where you will certainly hit multiple meteorites in row. For this reason I'll assume you step on EVERY meteorite, since you have only about 20% chance to roll 2 or 3. There you go, it's worse than I thought last time, but it's mostly because of increasing meteorite numbers in later checkpoints. I think it's still really good, you can get some tankoins and 4th slot for almost free, on the other hand, pulsar is most likely locked behind a fairly high paywall... ? At least rf skins don't give any advantage.

? We will have to wait for monday. A lot can still be answered tho. WARNING, below here are just assumptions, likely to be a bit, or completely incorrect. Don't take it literally. Info shown in vlog: (may be incorrectly interpreted, or changed in the real minigame) - there should be 89 squares/fragments from start to finish - it seems there is a meteorite on average every 7 squares/fragments. If that doesn't change, there should be around 13 total meteorites total. (Or 12, if it's 3 meteorites per checkpoint. Or more, if they think it's funny to add meteorites every checkpoint) Also, if meteorites are over 5 squares from each other, then once passing one meteorite, you can't get combo-thrown back by multiple chained meteorites. Makes it less frustrating, you can only get trolled once, and you have a chance to skip the danger by rolling 2 or 3. - first "checkpoint" awarding you paint is on the second square, similarly to how last minigame worked. Then the next checkpoint appears to be on 23rd square. It would only make sense to have further checkpoints every 22 squares (1+22+22+22+22), which adds up to 89 total squares. In that case, with assuming a few more numbers, like average roll, average pull back by meteorite, chance to hit meteorites... we get interesting results For 3 bottom options I assumed/guessed average number rolled, we obviously don't know what are the odds to roll certain number. If daily mission rewards are same as last minigame (4 per mission), you can obtain 604 energy from daily + special missions. The last "luck option" in the screenshot seems like the most likely one, as we can assume rolling +2 or +3 on dice will be quite rare, so on average it might end up being only +1.5 per roll. Also the bottom 3 cases all assume 66% chance to get hit by meteorite, that's really just a random guess, better than nothing (uh, I know it doesn't make sense for last option, since with average +1 roll, you'd always hit every meteorite... let's just ignore that, it's there to show how badly you could end up, but with average meteorite hits). The important number IMO is 860 energy. Not sure if it is intended that you need "only" ~260 extra energy while completing all missions to obtain main prize, or these assumptions are way off, and we'll get a bad surprise such as more meteorites closer to the final checkpoint or less energy from daily missions. On the other hand, even 260 energy is really expensive, let alone full 860. With 600 energy one should be able to reach 3rd checkpoint almost all the time, and 4th checkpoint if lucky. With enough goldboxes, 4th checkpoint might be possible without spending money, just like it was possible to obtain crisis last time. Maybe I'll be able to nolife for final prize again. Even if average roll is less than 1.5, 600 energy always lasts till second checkpoint, and even with really unlucky rolls, it should be almost enough for 3rd one. Let's just hope for no surprises. I appreciate special missions, they are not the best choice for myself, but seem to be doable within given time frame by almost everyone (except 39x top3) and making event less gold-box dependent. I'm looking forward to Monday, to see how the site looks and what we can expect.

I played with dictator most of the time, but yes, the very little I played with hopper, I saved my OD only for candy. That was obviously way to go, and the reason why so many players used hopper. I couldn't use it tho, long story :x

Only by catching golds, I reached around a third of 4th round. A little over 800 candy things used, only missions + goldboxes, no bundle bought. Tho I should mention I nolifed the whole event.

To be honest with you, I couldn't care less about the comic, but last time I earned demonic combo just by playing, so if it's going to be the same this time, I take it! ?

Can't wait for the April 1st patch notes with "Equipment change cooldown increased to 16 minutes." Hazel been preparing this joke for little too long. ?

Can't wait for no OD gold box event ? Finally it's with drones, at least it looks so. Also great to see a 300 tankoins mission back, it's a nice way to give the most active f2p players a chance to earn tankoins faster.